ESPN Matchup Predictor Forecasts Kansas vs Missouri Football Matchup

Kansas was heavily favored in its season opener over Long Island University, but it's a different story this week with Missouri coming to Lawrence for the first time in over 20 years. The No. 23-ranked Tigers are one of the better teams in the SEC and will be getting future NFL offensive tackle Cayden Green back from injury this week.

Given what is at stake in this rivalry matchup, this undoubtedly ranks among the biggest games of the season for KU. Lance Leipold's squad fell 42-31 to MU a year ago, despite keeping it close for the first three quarters.

As one of the three ugly losing streaks the Jayhawks will be looking to end in 2026, it would mean a lot for Kansas to stay hot with a victory on Friday. However, what does the ESPN Matchup Predictor think will transpire two days from now?

Missouri at Kansas: ESPN Matchup Predictor Gives Prediction

While Missouri is widely considered the superior opponent in this contest, the matchup predictor gives the underdog a nearly two-fifths chance to come out victorious. Those aren't terrible odds for a school that wouldn't have had much of a chance in a game like this a decade ago.

Kansas Jayhawks head coach Lance Leipold looks towards the screen during the game against LIU Sharks inside David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on Sept. 4, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

ESPN Matchup Predictor Chances at Victory: Missouri 63.2%, Kansas 36.8%.

This is nearly a 10% increase from the matchup predictor's initial probability for the Jayhawks, as they were given just a 28.0% chance to win heading into the campaign. It appears that Ahmad Hardy's expected absence, along with Isaiah Marshall's impressive debut as a starter under center, has shifted the odds in KU's favor.

Kansas On SI's Take

Looking at this game from a neutral perspective, there is no reason for Kansas to be favored. The Tigers have stronger and faster athletes, a more proven defensive unit, and a quarterback with higher expectations.

Still, truly anything can happen in a rivalry game. Even a five-win Jayhawk team last year was able to keep it a one-score game until the closing moments.

Despite a 52-point effort from the offense in Week 1, Kansas got off to a slow start, mustering just six points in the first quarter and committing a turnover on downs. Those types of mistakes won't fly against an SEC-caliber defense.

The Jayhawks undoubtedly have improvements to make, but there's still a slim chance they can rally behind the home crowd and keep this game relatively close. The coaching staff hasn't particularly fared well in close games over the past two years, so we'll see if its fortunes change this time around.

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