Breaking down the chances Michigan's top portal commit ends up in Ann Arbor

Dusty May and the Michigan basketball program were flying high after securing the commitment of UAB power forward Yaxel Lendeborg. The elite talent was the top-rated portal player for the 2025 cycle and rated as the number two portal transfer of all-time. With the very real prospect that Danny Wolf is headed to the NBA, Coach May had his replacement, and Yaxel was more than adequate.
However, a talent like Lendeborg also has the NBA whispering in his ear. It turns out that whisper has grown louder since his commitment to Michigan. When he committed, Yaxel was considered to be a high second round draft prospect. Since then, many mock drafts have him solidly in the middle of the first round (similar to the position given to Danny Wolf).
Michigan has gotten a HAUL in the transfer portal:
— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) April 11, 2025
6-9 Yaxel Lendeborg (17.7 PPG and 11.4 RPG)
7-3 Aday Mara (6.4 PPG and 1.6 BPG)
6-9 Morez Johnson Jr. (7.0 PPG and 6.7 RPG)
6-1 Elliot Cadeau (9.4 PPG and 6.2 APG)
Dusty May needs patched 😭 pic.twitter.com/vL7DM2Xncd
With the real prospect that he could be a mid-first round pick, it looks like Michigan may be facing an uphill battle in getting Lendeborg to commit to another year of college ball. What we do not know is the name, image, and likeness (NIL) package that was presented to Lendeborg. If it rivals a mid-first round pick's first year pay (in the $2.5 million range) May could convince the talented PF to stay and potentially play his way into lottery pick range in the '26 NBA Draft.
A number of draft analysts predict that once Lendeborg gets into the pre-draft workout phase of this process he will likely move further up the draft boards. If that happens and he becomes a fringe lottery pick, it's hard to see how the Wolverines can sell him on another year of college basketball. Even without Lendeborg, the Wolverines have reloaded well with the other transfer pickups and freshmen class they have coming in. But even with all of that other talent, adding a guy like Lendeborg makes this team an instant National Championship contender.

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Jerred Johnson has served in the United States military for over 23 years. He has a Bachelors in Marketing, a Masters in Management and is in the final phases of completing his Doctorate in Business Administration.