Game Prediction: Can Mississippi State stop Missouri's ground game?

The spotlight is on the Bulldogs' quarterback situation, but the outcome of Saturday's will be decided when the quarterback is on the sideline.

Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker Branden Jennings (44) reacts during the fourth quarter against the Texas Longhorns at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. | Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Would the 2025 season be considered a disappointment in Starkville if Mississippi State loses its last two games and doesn’t go to a bowl game?

Comparing this season to the 2024 season, no.

This season has been a huge step forward. The Bulldogs beat a top 15 team, won an SEC game and were competitive in all but one game (two if you count Texas A&M).

But on this season’s own merits, specifically how Mississippi State could’ve and/or should’ve won three more games and already be bowl-eligible, it may be a disappointment.

It may not be fair to the Bulldogs themselves, but what happens in the next two games will have a huge impact on how this season is looked at.

Mississippi State would like to beat Missouri this week and not go into its bye week before the Egg Bowl with the bowl eligibility question hanging over its head.

Unfortunately, this prediction has the Bulldogs doing just that.

Taylor’s Prediction

A lot of attention will be paid to who will start at quarterback for Mississippi State, but that’s trivial matter.

The outcome Saturday will depend on the Bulldogs’ ability to stop Missouri’s rushing attack. If they can do that and force true freshman Matt Zollers to beat a Bulldogs’ secondary that’s pretty good, they’ll have a good chance at winning.

I just don’t think Mississippi State can stop a Tigers’ rushing attack that’s averaging 232.3 yards per game (1st in SEC, 8th in FBS).

The Bulldogs rank 15th in the SEC in run defense, allowing teams to gain 176.2 ypg. They’ve held only one FBS opponent to less than 100 rushing yards (Texas, 72). No. 5 Georgia ran for 303 yards last week, Arkansas had 239, Florida had 172, No. 3 Texas A&M had 299 and No. 23 Tennessee had 131.

Mississippi State will have to sellout to stop the run, putting eight or even nine defenders in the box.

On the flip side, whoever lines up at quarterback will have to contend with a Missouri defense that is sneaky good. The Tigers have fewest passing yards allowed in the SEC (162.7), are fifth in rush defense (107.3), average 2.67 sacks per game and have the ninth-best third down defense in the nation.

The biggest concern for Mississippi State is the sacks statistic above. The Bulldogs are allowing 4.2 sacks per game this season and gave up three sacks to a Georgia team that had only eight before the game started.

Mississippi State does have two advantages this week, though.

First, there’s an element of mystery about what to expect considering the quarterback situation for Mississippi State. Missouri can say they have two game plans, but that leaves more chances for mistakes to be made whenever they choose a plan.

Second, the Bulldogs should be a lot more motivated to win than Missouri. The Tigers are already bowl eligible.

But that motivation can be squashed quickly with a few long runs by Missouri’s running backs.

Final Score: Missouri 31, Mississippi State 17