ESPN Releases Win Probabilities for Every Nebraska Football Game in 2026

Backwards Hat Matt is no more. It's time for high-level football to be played in Lincoln this fall.

With camp set to begin Aug. 5, Nebraska enters the 2026 season ranked No. 30 nationally in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). The Huskers also face the nation's No. 21 strength of schedule and are projected to finish 6.7-5.3 during the regular season.

According to ESPN's model, NU has a 74.5% chance of reaching bowl eligibility and a 7.3% chance of earning a spot in the College Football Playoff this season.

Here are the Huskers' projected win probabilities for each of their 12 regular-season games, along with whether I think ESPN got them right.

Ohio Bobcats running back Duncan Brune is shown with the ball in the second quarter, Thursday, August 28, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio Bobcats (Sept. 5)

Opponent FPI ranking: 97
Nebraska win probability: 91.7%

Under first-year head coach John Hauser, Ohio will look to build on the momentum it created at the end of 2025, when he guided the Bobcats to a 17-10 victory over UNLV in the Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl while serving as the program's interim head coach.

Nebraska is 2-1 in season openers under Matt Rhule and 7-4 overall in September. Getting off to a fast start in 2026 will be important, and opening at home against a Group of Five opponent is an opportunity the Huskers should take full advantage of.

My Take: NU is currently favored by 23.5 points, and while the scoreboard might not reflect it, this is a game the Big Red should control from start to finish.

Bowling Green Falcons head coach Eddie George talks with his players during the first quarter against the Louisville Cardinals. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bowling Green (Sept. 12)

Opponent FPI Ranking: 123
Nebraska Win Probability: 95.7%

Bowling Green enters its second season under head coach Eddie George, who won the 1995 Heisman Trophy over former Nebraska quarterback Tommie Frazier. The Falcons are coming off a 4-8 season and will be looking to take a step forward in 2026.

Despite their FPI rank, Bowling Green does present somewhat of an early challenge. The Falcons return several defensive linemen with NFL-level traits, which will force Nebraska's offensive line to prove they've taken strides after an underwhelming season-long performance last fall.

My Take: NU should essentially have the edge across the board, and anything less than a 2-0 start would cause concern. This is a game they should comfortably win.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks quarterback Jerry Kaminski passes the ball during the first quarter against the Kansas State Wildcats. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

North Dakota (Sept. 19)

Opponent FPI ranking: N/A
Nebraska win probability: 94.0%

Widely viewed as one of the top teams in the FCS entering 2026, North Dakota is coming off a second-round playoff appearance and will travel to Lincoln believing it has a chance to pull off the upset.

The last time these two programs met was in 2022, when Nebraska earned a 38-17 victory in what ultimately became the final win of the Scott Frost era. Since then, the Fighting Hawks have reached the FCS playoffs twice in three seasons and enter this matchup as a much stronger program than the one the Huskers faced four years ago.

My Take: North Dakota very well could be Nebraska's toughest non-conference opponent, and I wouldn't be surprised if this game is competitive well into the second half. That said, the Huskers still have too much talent and should find a way to remain unbeaten heading into Michigan State.

Michigan State's head coach Pat Fitzgerald addresses the team at the end of the football Spring Showcase. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Michigan State (Sept. 26)

Opponent FPI ranking: 65
Nebraska win probability: 67.9%

After going a combined 9-15 under Jonathan Smith, Michigan State enters 2026 with a new head coach. Pat Fitzgerald, a familiar name to Nebraska fans, spent 17 seasons at Northwestern and now takes over a Spartans program that won 11 games as recently as 2021.

Entering year four under Matt Rhule, NU needs to show tangible progress. Rhule's contract extension may have eased some of the pressure he'll face, but opening Big Ten play against a first-year head coach needs to end with a win.

My Take: Nebraska beat Michigan State in Lincoln last season despite leaving points on the board multiple times. If the Huskers have truly improved in the areas the Spartans exposed in 2025, it should be enough to open Big Ten play 1-0.

Maryland Terrapins quarterback Malik Washington throws during the second quarter against the Indiana Hoosiers. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Maryland (Oct. 3)

Opponent FPI ranking: 61
Nebraska win probability: 79.1%

Nebraska's first home game against a Big Ten opponent comes against a familiar foe. Last season, the Huskers escaped College Park with a victory in which they had to come from behind. This fall, they'll look to create a little more separation against a Maryland team that finished 4-8 in 2025 but returns 14 starters.

Head coach Mike Locksley enters an important year, and the Terrapins' access to talent-rich recruiting territory has allowed them to quietly assemble one of the more dangerous rosters in the Big Ten. This is a better team than last year's record suggests.

My Take: Nebraska should be favored, but this isn't a game to overlook. The Terrapins have enough returning experience to create problems if the Huskers come out flat. Still, with the game in Lincoln and NU rated significantly higher in the FPI, I expect the Big Red to find a way to move to 5-0.

Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti smiles as he is interviewed on the podium after the College Football Playoff National Championship game. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Indiana (Oct. 10)

Opponent FPI ranking: 6
Nebraska win probability: 19.0%

At the midpoint of the season, the Huskers will have a giant knocking at their door. Fresh off a program-record 16-0 campaign, Indiana enters 2026 looking to prove last year's national championship run wasn't a fluke after producing a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback who went No. 1 overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.

Yet, if the Huskers are going to pull off an upset, doing so in Lincoln gives them their best opportunity. Under Matt Rhule, Nebraska has consistently played better at home than on the road, and the atmosphere inside Memorial Stadium should be among the best of the entire season.

My Take: I've bet against Curt Cignetti before, and I don't want to make that mistake again. Because of that, in my eyes, Indiana has earned the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Nebraska has enough talent to compete, but likely not enough to win. I'll gladly be proven wrong; however, at this time, give me the Hoosiers.

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning attends Oregon Pro Day on March 17, 2026, at the Moshofsky Center in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oregon (Oct. 17)

Opponent FPI ranking: 4
Nebraska win probability: 8.0%

For the first time as Big Ten opponents, Nebraska will take on the Oregon Ducks. Nearly a decade has passed since the Huskers' last win over a ranked team, and the same program Nebraska defeated in 2016 now stands in its way once again.

Under Dan Lanning, however, the Ducks are in a much different position. UO returns one of the nation's top quarterbacks, one of college football's most expensive rosters, and gets to play this game inside one of the sport's loudest environments- Autzen Stadium.

My Take: An 8%-win probability fits the bill. Oregon enters the season as a national title contender, and it will likely be too much for the Big Red. NU is capable of keeping the game close, but this is arguably the toughest road contest they'll play in 2026. With that in mind, I expect the Huskers to come up short for the second straight week.

Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. warms up prior to the LA Bowl Game against the Boise State Broncos. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Washington (Oct. 31)

Opponent FPI ranking: 26
Nebraska win probability: 56.8%

For the first time in 15 years, Nebraska and Washington will meet on the football field. Many expect this to be the game in which the Huskers bring back the "Blackout" tradition, giving Memorial Stadium an even bigger edge.

The timing also favors NU. The Huskers will be coming off a bye week, giving Rhule's staff two weeks to prepare. Combined with home-field advantage, it appears to be a wonderful opportunity for the Big Red.

My Take: With roughly a 57% chance to win the game, I expect the Huskers to be able to handle business on Halloween.

Illinois Fighting Illini head coach Bret Bielema and quarterback Luke Altmyer during the second half against the Western Michigan Broncos. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Illinois (Nov. 6)

Opponent FPI ranking: 39
Nebraska win probability: 50.8%

NU opens November with another measuring-stick game, this time on the road in Champaign. Illinois has gone 12-2 at home over the past two seasons, making Memorial Stadium one of the tougher road environments in the Big Ten.

Even so, this could be Bret Bielema's most vulnerable team. The Fighting Illini enter 2026 with a new quarterback, a new defensive coordinator, and significant turnover along both the offensive and defensive lines. That's a lot to replace in one offseason.

My Take: I think the Huskers' chances of winning are higher than 50.8%. Bielema has built a consistently competitive program over the past couple of years, but Illinois doesn't recruit at the level needed to pick up where they left off last fall. I expect Nebraska to win this game in somewhat convincing fashion as of today.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Antwan Raymond catches a touchdown pass against Penn State. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Rutgers (Nov. 14)

Opponent FPI ranking: 67
Nebraska win probability: 67.5%

After a Friday night matchup at Illinois, the Huskers get an extra day to prepare before traveling to SHI Stadium to face Rutgers. Since the addition of the four former Pac-12 programs to the Big Ten, the Scarlet Knights have gone 12-13 overall and 6-12 in conference play. During that same span, NU is 14-12 overall and 7-11 against Big Ten teams.

My Take: November doesn't offer a more favorable matchup for the Big Red. In 2026, there should be a noticeable gap between Nebraska and the Scarlet Knights. With an opportunity, by my prediction, to win this game, the Huskers will be staring at a chance to earn victories in back-to-back road games for the first time in over 20 years. Make it happen.

Julian Sayin runs against the Texas Longhorns at Ohio Stadium. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Ohio State (Nov. 21)

Opponent FPI ranking: 1
Nebraska win probability: 10.6%

Ohio State is viewed as the No. 1 team in the country entering the fall, and it's easy to see why. The Buckeyes return arguably the nation's best quarterback-wide receiver duo and once again boast one of the deepest rosters in the sport.

Ryan Day enters his eighth season as head coach and already has one national championship to his name. Another title run in 2026 wouldn't surprise anyone.

My Take: Ohio State is operating at a different level than almost any other team in college football right now, and Nebraska just isn't there yet. If the Huskers are going to have a chance, they'll need to slow the Buckeyes' rushing attack to the same level they did in 2024 (64 total rushing yards). Even so, this has the potential to get away from Nebraska relatively quickly. I'd expect this, despite NU being at home, to be a contest in which the Huskers enter as double-digit underdogs. Ultimately, it will be up to them to prove everyone wrong.

Kirk Ferentz watches game action against the Southern California Trojans at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Iowa (Nov. 27)

Opponent FPI ranking: 25
Nebraska Win Probability: 38.4%

Nebraska's last win over Iowa came under an interim head coach. Four years into Matt Rhule's tenure, the Huskers need that to change.

Last season, Emmett Johnson totaled 239 all-purpose yards, yet NU still lost by 24 points. The Huskers moved the ball well enough to compete but failed to consistently finish drives with touchdowns. Iowa did, and it was the difference in the game.

My Take: As much as it pains me to say it, I think the win probability has this matchup correct. Until the Big Red proves it can make the winning plays, it's difficult to pick them against a team that consistently does. If NU wants to change the narrative around its program, ending the regular season with a win over the Hawkeyes would be a great place to start. Momentum is a tangible thing, and from 10 losses to Iowa over the last 11 years, it's something they haven't had enough of as of late.

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