Stacking Up: Notre Dame's Offense Must Find Balance vs USC
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Notre Dame's defense has carried the team for much of the 2022 season, but if the Fighting Irish are going to go on the road and beat No. 6 the offense must be on top of its game.
This side of the ball has played better of late, and it has played an important role in Notre Dame's current five game win stretch, during which the team has scored 39.8 points per game. USC presents a completely different challenge, because the Trojan offense forces the Notre Dame offense to maximize possessions in order to stay on pace.
The matchup is intriguing, so let's take a look at what it looks like on paper.
Notre Dame Rush Offense vs USC Rush Defense
Advantage: Notre Dame
Notre Dame holds a significant advantage in this part of the matchup even if you only look at the season long numbers. Notre Dame ranks higher in yards per game, but the yards per carry numbers are not even close. USC is one of the worst Power 5 rush defenses in the country when it comes to yards allowed per attempt.
When you look at Notre Dame's last eight games things look even more bleak for the Trojans. Notre Dame has averaged 218.8 yards per game and 5.0 yards per attempt over its last eight games, and the offense has racked up at least 223 rushing yards in six of those eight contests.
Notre Dame has used a physical, punishing ground attack that is fueled by three talented runners. During the current eight game stretch of ground success, running backs Logan Diggs and Audric Estime have both topped 100 rushing yards in three different games, and Chris Tyree has two games with over 100 yards of all purpose yards.
USC has only allowed two opponents to go over 200 yards, and that was Stanford (221) back in September and last weekend against UCLA (204). The issue has been it has consistently allowed yards in a conference that doesn't have many teams that run the ball effectively. Nine of USC's eleven opponents have gone for at least 135 yards.
Notre Dame holds a size advantage against USC, but the Trojans are athletic and will throw a lot of different pressures and run stunts at the run game. If Notre Dame is going to win this contest it will have to dominate this matchup.
Notre Dame Pass Offense vs USC Pass Defense
Advantage: Even
This is the wildcard in this contest. USC's pass defense is arguably worse than its run defense, but the problem is Notre Dame hasn't been overly effective throwing the football for much of the season. USC ranks just 106th in passing yards allowed, but Notre Dame ranks only 113th in passing offense.
For Notre Dame, there isn't the need to go out out and throw for 300+ yards to win, it just needs to be efficient, be good on third down and make enough big plays to take the pressure off the run game. It has to take advantage of the USC pressures and find ways to beat them with some screens, quick throws and/or max protections that allow the wideouts, backs and tight ends to get free down the field.
Offensive coordinator Tommy Rees will need to find ways to get his tight ends and backs isolated against the Trojan linebackers and safeties. The biggest key could be whether or not Rees can find ways to get Lorenzo Styles and Braden Lenzy into space, and if quarterback Drew Pyne can hit them when he does.
USC's pass defense can be taken advantage, we just don't know if Notre Dame is capable of getting that done.
Notre Dame Scoring Offense vs USC Scoring Defense
Advantage: Notre Dame
Notre Dame holds the advantage here but it's not significant. Notre Dame has a better scoring unit, it ranks higher in yards and yards per attempt, it has a much better red zone unit and its significantly better on third-down. These are all very important areas, and aspects of this matchup that Notre Dame must dominate. If they can there is no doubt Notre Dame can win this game, but if the offense doesn't take advantage it could be a long night, unless the defense bails the team out.
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