Stacking Up The Notre Dame Defense vs Syracuse

Notre Dame (4-3) has a bit of a matchup disadvantage against the Syracuse defense, but on the other side of the ball the Irish defense and the Orange offense are much closer and competitive.

The closeness of the matchup means the Notre Dame defense must be on top of its game in order to do what it takes to come away with a win. Let's take a look at how the Irish defense and Syracuse offense stack up on paper heading into this battle.

Notre Dame Rush Defense vs Syracuse Rush Offense

Advantage: Notre Dame

Coming into the season I expected the Syracuse run game to be the strength of the offense, if not the entire team. Syracuse ranked 17th nationally in rushing yards last season, ranked 18th in yards per rush and rushed for at least 228 yards seven times. Although the Syracuse ground attack has been solid in 2022, it hasn't lived up to expectations.

A change at offensive coordinator and along the offensive line have sapped the Syracuse offense of much of its big play ability that fueled the unit a season ago. When you take the performance against FCS Wagner out of the mix the numbers look even worse, and that's why Notre Dame holds the advantage.

Syracuse rushed for 388 yards and 9.95 yards per carry in the 59-0 win over Wagner. Syracuse has rushed for more than 180 yards in just one of its other six games, and that was a 208-yard performance against Syracuse. Syracuse has only topped 4.5 yards per rush in two other games (Louisville, NC State). If you take out the Wagner game the offense ranks just 69th in rushing for all games against FBS opponents, and it ranks just 75th in yards per attempt.

The Orange ripped off 42 designed runs of at least 15 yards last season according to Pro Football Focus. Syracuse has just 13 so far this season, which is a pace of just 22 this season. Syracuse had eight such runs against Wagner, which means it only has five runs of at least 15 yards on (on designed runs, not scrambles) in the other six games.

When looking just at games against FBS opponents, Notre Dame clearly has the on paper advantage. Running back Sean Tucker is one of the best backs in the country and quarterback Garrett Shrader is a legit run game weapon, but the Syracuse line hasn't been quite as good. Notre Dame has been up-and-down with its run defense all season, and when it has been good it has been dominant, but when it's not good it can get ripped.

That means this is a matchup of two units with talent, but also two units that have been inconsistent and under-performed based on preseason expectations. Notre Dame gets the edge on paper, but the defense will need to be on its game to make sure that it plays out like that on Saturday.

Notre Dame Pass Defense vs Syracuse Pass Offense

Advantage: Even

This is a very evenly matched part of the game in many ways. Notre Dame's pass defense has been solid this season, and at times it has been quite good. The yards per game average favors Notre Dame, but total yards can be a bit misleading.

When you look at the yards per play and yards per attempt, especially if you look at FBS only games, is very similar. Notre Dame has a big advantage from a pass rush standpoint, and Syracuse has better yards per attempt and yards per completion rankings. Syracuse also has an advantage from an efficiency standpoint.

On paper it's back and forth, and that's why this is listed as even. There are two areas that could determine the winner on the field. For Notre Dame, it comes down to the pass rush. Notre Dame is one of the best pass rushing defenses in the country and Syracuse has struggled to protect its quarterback for most of the season.

That means Irish pass rushers like Isaiah Foskey, Justin Ademilola, Jayson Ademilola and Howard Cross II need to have big games if Notre Dame is going to win. Syracuse has a massive offensive line, but outside of left tackle Matthew Bergeron it's not a very fleet of football group. Al Golden needs to make sure his game plan and play calling allow his front seven to take advantage of its speed and to limit the size difference.

For Syracuse it's about efficiency. Syracuse isn't much of a big play pass attack, although it can get there at times. What makes the pass game so much better this season is the big jump in efficiency. Shrader completed just 52.6-percent of his passes in 2021 and averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt. So far this season he's completed passes at a 69.7-percent rate. Even if you take out the 17-for-17 performance against Wagner, he's still completing passes at a 66.5-percent clip and is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt.

Syracuse is going to go after corners Benjamin Morrison and Cam Hart, and the Irish cover players will need to limit big plays and force more incompletions.

Notre Dame Scoring Defense vs Syracuse Scoring Offense

Advantage: Notre Dame

The scoring numbers are similar, and Syracuse has a big advantage in red zone success and turnover rates. But once again, when you take out the Wagner game things aren't all that close everywhere but red zone.

Take that out and Syracuse ranks just 51st in scoring offense, 75th in total offense and 56th in yards per play. It also ranks just 61st in third-down offense. When you consider that Notre Dame also ranks higher despite playing the No. 2 (Ohio State) and No. 8 (North Carolina) scoring offenses, and No. 4 (Ohio State) and No. 8 (North Carolina) total offenses it adds even more to the Notre Dame statistical advantage.

Notre Dame has also held all seven of its opponents to at least 6.3 points below their season scoring average.

Will things play out that way on Saturday? We'll see, but on paper Notre Dame does hold a slight on paper advantage.

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