Why Ohio State on Si Staff Favors Clear Winner in Ohio State-Ball State Week 1 Game

It’s the start of a new season for Ohio State this Saturday as it’ll begin nonconference action against Ball State as part of a crowded Week 1 slate across college football.

Each week, select members of the Ohio State on SI team (led by me) will share their picks and analysis through the end of the regular season and into the College Football Playoff if the Buckeyes qualify.

Here are a few particulars ahead of the all-Midwest tilt:

Date: Saturday, Sept. 5

Time: 12:30 p.m. ET/9:30 a.m. PT

TV Channel: Big Ten Network

Odds: Ohio State -50.5; over/under is 56.5 (per DraftKings Sportsbook; see full odds here).

Location: Ohio Stadium – aka “The Horseshoe” in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State’s record under Ryan Day: 82-12 (8-6 in postseason bowl games/CFP). Won the national title against Notre Dame to conclude the 2024-2025 season.

Last time vs. Ball State: N/A; first meeting between both schools.

Pre-game festivities: Honoring Ohio State’s seniors for Senior Day and “BTN Tailgate” with activations, prizes and more.

Ohio State last season: 12-2 overall (9-0 Big Ten)

Ohio State On SI Staff Picks: Week 1 vs. Ball State

Ryan Day before Grambling State — Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day takes the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Grambling State Tigers at Ohio Stadium on Sept. 6, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

STAFF STANDINGS:

Zain Bando, 0-0
Dylan Buganski, 0-0
Rafael Zamorano, 0-0

Zain Bando: Ohio State 42, Ball State 0

The Ohio State Buckeyes haven’t lost a home opener since 1978, and it’s hard to say an upset will transpire Saturday when the Buckeyes welcome Ball State to Columbus. Not only does Las Vegas love the Buckeyes to start the season from a betting standpoint, but so does The Associated Press. Entering the 2026 campaign, Ohio State is No. 1 despite going one-and-done in the College Football Playoff last winter and losing 11 players to the NFL Draft.

Coach Ryan Day isn’t looking past the Cardinals, shifting the focus back to his team during his weekly presser. Day said he has been overly impressed with Julian Sayin and his improved confidence at quarterback as he enters his second season as the starter.

Wholistically, though, Day’s expectations are simple.

“We can't have substitution issues. I mean, we're looking for a clean operation. That's the first thing in game one that you're looking for,” Day said. "And I said it before, great teams don't beat themselves. That's the first part of it. So, we need to establish that part of them.”

Day said that he wants to establish the run, a position group he has raved about all season with the combination of Bo Jackson and Isaiah West.

"Yeah, I think it's pretty well documented this offseason,” Day said of the run game. “We have our ability to get to the second level and turn 10-, 12-yard runs into big runs. We've put a lot of work into that.”

As for Ball State, it will attempt to overcome a three-game losing skid dating to last season, when it finished 4-8. It’s easier said than done, considering that the Cardinals haven’t won a Power 4 game since 2013, while its last Big Ten win came against the Indiana Hoosiers in 2012.

Assuming Ohio State can play mistake-free football, it should be a comfortable opening-week win, with style points at a premium against a team that finished 10th in the Mid-American Conference last season. Ball State managed to score a season-high 42 points against Akron last year in an Oct. 18 Homecoming win, which proved to be its final win of the season.

Adding extra icing on the cake for the Buckeyes: Ball State was non-competitive against its Big Ten counterpart in last year’s opener too, as Purdue dropped 31 points in an in-state shutout win.

Therefore, there may be little to worry about by the time kickoff rolls around Saturday afternoon.

Could Ohio State Score 60 Points Come Saturday?

Ohio State helmet — Jan 18, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; A Ohio State Buckeyes helmet on the field during practice at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect

Dylan Buganski: Ohio State 66, Ball State 3

Many might suspect some growing pains as Ohio State replaces half of its starters from last year. Yet, with a program set to dominate and a looming Week 2 matchup against No. 5 Texas, I expect all gas from the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball as they cruise to their first win of the season.

The running game should look new and productive early, with a veteran offensive line creating holes for the one-two punch of Bo Jackson and Isaiah West all day.

This should open up the play-action pass game, which should be much more apparent in new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s scheme. With most of the production coming in the run game, I still expect Jeremiah Smith and newcomer Devin McCuin to have big days for the Buckeyes.

The No. 1 scoring defense in the country last season was depleted the most in the offseason, but defensive coordinator Matt Patricia set a standard himself. Expect the new starters to make their names known early and for Ohio State to force 3+ turnovers in this game, setting up what should be one of Ohio State’s highest-scoring totals of the season.

Growing pains still could exist and make it hard for the Buckeyes to put up this big number, but with the standard that has been set and all three levels needing to be sharp heading into next week, a big-time Buckeye blowout seems destined for this matchup.

Rafael Zamorano: Ohio State 48, Ball State 14

The heavily favored Buckeyes should have no problem putting this game away fairly early, but expecting to put 80-plus points on Ball State isn’t a realistic expectation, either. Heck, Ohio State might not even cover the 50.5-point spread, which in the end really means very little for a Week 1 matchup. What we should expect from the Buckeyes are a few minor penalties here and there, as the team keeps fine-tuning the small details before a massive test on the road versus the Longhorns in Week 2.

Among the players to keep an eye out for -- besides the usual suspects -- are true freshmen wide receiver Chris Henry Jr., running back Legend Bey and defensive back Jay Timmons, as they will be called upon often during the regular season.

With predictions covered, keep Ohio State on SI bookmarked right here as a go-to source for everything Buckeyes throughout the season and all year long.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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