What Does EA College Football 26 Predict for Oklahoma’s 2025 Season?

The Sooners are in the game.

EA Sports released its newest college football video game, EA College Football 26, on Thursday. All 136 NCAA Division I FBS programs are included in the game.

At initial release, Oklahoma had an 85 overall rating, the 18th best in the game. Only seven SEC schools — Alabama, Texas, Georgia, Texas A&M, LSU, Florida and Ole Miss — have higher overall ratings than the Sooners.

That’s a favorable outlook, but how does the game expect the Sooners to fare over the course of their 12-game schedule?

A sample size of 30 is traditionally viewed as reliable according to the Central Limit Theorem.

At Sooners on SI, we ran 30 simulations of the 2025 season, calculating OU’s most probable wins, losses and other interesting information.

Here’s what we found:

Record vs. each regular season opponent

vs. Illinois State (FCS Midwest): 30-0

vs. Michigan: 19-11

vs. Temple: 30-0

vs. Auburn: 21-9

vs. Kent State: 30-0

vs. Texas: 13-17

vs. South Carolina: 17-13

vs. Ole Miss: 20-10

vs. Tennessee: 21-9

vs. Alabama: 13-17

vs. Missouri: 22-8

vs. LSU: 22-8

Over the 30 simulations, Oklahoma had winning records against 10 of its 12 regular-season opponents. The only two exceptions were Alabama and Texas, who both boasted 17-13 records against the Sooners.

What really stood out is the success against certain SEC teams that enter 2025 with fairly high expectations.

Despite LSU having one of the conference’s most experienced and talented offenses, EA College Football 26 had the Sooners beating the Tigers 22 times. OU also won 20 or more games against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Missouri, all of which are ranked in the top 25 of ESPN’s Football Power Index.

On the flipside, Oklahoma only had complete control over Illinois State, Temple and Kent State. (FCS Midwest plays in lieu of Illinois State in the game, as EA College Football 26 does not feature actual FCS programs). The Sooners lost eight or more games against every other opponent, showing the difficulty of their schedule.

Best seasons

Twice, the Sooners reached the College Football Playoff National Championship Game — losing the title game in both simulations.

In Simulation 18, Oklahoma went 11-1 in the regular season, losing only to Texas. The Sooners lost to Texas A&M in the SEC Championship Game.

Both the Aggies and Sooners received byes in the College Football Playoff. OU beat Indiana in the quarterfinals before getting revenge on Texas A&M in the semifinals. The Sooners then lost to Miami in the title game.

Not only did OU sniff a national title in that simulation, John Mateer became a Sooner legend. The transfer quarterback from Washington State won the Heisman Trophy, Maxwell Award, Walter Camp Player of the Year Award and Davey O’Brien Award, throwing for 3,998 yards, 45 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Sophomore cornerback Eli Bowen won the Jim Thorpe Award, given to college football’s best defensive back.

The other simulation where OU reached the CFP title game is one that Sooner fans would dread.

In Simulation 15, the Sooners won their first seven games before falling back to back against Ole Miss and Tennessee. Still, they went 10-2 overall and 6-2 in SEC play to reach the conference title game.

Texas beat OU in the SEC Championship Game after the Sooners won the regular-season meeting. Oklahoma still reached the College Football Playoff, winning its first three games.

The Sooners then got a third chance at Texas in the national title game, losing again as the Longhorns won the national championship.

Though OU won 13 games and made it to the title game, I have to believe Sooner fans would rather go 8-5 with a Texas Bowl appearance than see two losses to Texas and a Longhorn national championship.

Worst seasons

Amazingly, the Sooners didn’t post one losing season in the 30 simulations after going 6-7 overall and 2-6 in SEC games in 2024.

Oklahoma played in a bowl game in 29 of the 30 seasons. For whatever reason — maybe opting out? Team sickness? Game-made-up violations? — the Sooners didn’t play in one in Simulation 3, when OU went 7-5 (3-5).

That was one of two simulations where the Sooners won just seven games. The other one was Simulation 29, when Oklahoma went 7-5 in the regular season before losing to Baylor in the Liberty Bowl.

Perhaps the oddest simulation was No. 23.

Oklahoma finished the regular season 7-5 with losses to Texas, South Carolina, Michigan, Auburn and LSU. The Sooners’ postseason fate? The Armed Forces Bowl vs. Navy — the same bowl and opponent from 2024.

This time, though, OU beat Navy and ended the year 8-5.

John Mateer performance

In both the best seasons and the worst seasons, Mateer put up video-game numbers — go figure.

Over the 30 simulations, Mateer averaged 3,238 passing yards, 35.87 passing touchdowns and 4.23 interceptions. He also averaged 350.8 rushing yards and 4.67 rushing touchdowns

Mateer threw for 3,998 yards, 45 touchdowns and three interceptions in Simulation 18, the only one where he won the Heisman Trophy. In the final simulation — No. 30 — Mateer had his best statistical season with 4,060 yards, 50 touchdowns and four interceptions, leading OU to the College Football Playoff semifinals. Somehow, Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik posted better numbers (4,160 yards and 52 touchdowns) and won the Heisman over him.

Team rushing numbers

EA College Football 26 also expects Oklahoma’s running game — collectively — to improve in 2025.

The Sooners averaged 2,312 team rushing yards across the 30 simulations. In 2024, OU posted 2,007 rushing yards in 13 games.

Oklahoma led the SEC in team rushing in 16 of the 30 simulations. Transfer running back Jaydn Ott, from Cal, eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards 23 times, with his best season coming in Simulation 8, when he finished the year with 1,554 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground.

It’s worth noting that the Sooners’ season lengths varied across the simulations. One was only 12 games, and the longest was 17 games. Of course, rushing totals will stagger with a five-game difference in season length.

Still, OU posted more than 2,000 team rushing yards in all 30 simulated seasons.

Conclusion

Sooner fans would likely be happy with the vast majority of the 30 simulations.

Oklahoma averaged 9.27 wins and 4.13 losses and went without a losing season. The Sooners also won an average of 4.97 SEC games, holding winning records against Auburn, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Missouri and LSU. They also held a comfortable advantage against Big Ten foe and fellow blue blood Michigan.

Even in the two matchups where Oklahoma held losing records, it won 30 times. It has to be encouraging that the game expects the Sooners to compete against a Texas team that dogwalked them last year and against Alabama on the road.

OU reached the College Football Playoff in 11 of the 30 simulations — that’s a 36.7% clip. The Sooners also made the SEC title game six times and won it once.

EA College Football evidently believes that the Sooners will be a force in their second SEC season.

That said… this is a video game.

It was shocking that none of the 30 simulations mimicked OU’s disastrous 2024 season.

While ESPN has Oklahoma at No. 16 in the FPI, the network still projects 6.9 wins — that’s lower than all of the regular-season win totals in every simulation. FPI gives OU just an 18.4% chance to reach the CFP, much lower than the simulation’s 36.7% figure.

Another issue with the simulation prediction method is that all of these games are won on paper.

Oklahoma’s 85 rating is in the top 20 in the game, higher than opponents like Tennessee, Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina. OU lost to three of those four squads last year and needed a 17-point surge in the fourth quarter to beat Auburn.

The Sooners almost certainly had a top 20 team in terms of talent last year, but it didn’t lead to a winning product — that’s just college football sometimes.

Truly, Oklahoma’s range from floor to ceiling is one of the largest in college football. The Sooners are tasked with arguably the nation’s toughest schedule, and because of that, the season could go a myriad of ways.

Only time will tell how accurate these simulations are.