Three Reasons Why the Oregon Ducks Are a Final Four Dark Horse in NCAA Tournament

In the 2025-26 Big Ten Conference preseason media poll, the Oregon Ducks were predicted to finish No. 5 in the standings. The Michigan Wolverines were picked No. 2 with three first-place votes, and the Purdue Boilermakers are the favorites to win the conference at 25 first-place votes.

The Ducks are going to be battle-tested during their non-conference scheduling in the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas, Nevada, from Nov. 23-25 as well as a matchup with the Gonzaga Bulldogs at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon, on Dec. 21.

Oregon will then have to go deal with arguably the country's toughest conference from top to bottom in the Big Ten, from an expanded Monday to Sunday scheduling throughout January to March.

Mar 23, 2025; Seattle, WA, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dana Altman works the sideline against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

During said conference schedule, Oregon is circling that road test in West Lafayette, Indiana, against the second-time Big Ten preseason player of the year, Purdue's senior guard Braden Smith, on Saturday, Feb. 7. That test alone will only prepare this season's group even further for what it takes to string wins together in March (even April).

Here is why Oregon coach Dana Altman's program seems already up to the task of turning some heads in the Big Ten and beyond in mid-October.

The Return of the Veteran Trio

Altman returns arguably the top returning duo in all of college basketball: senior center Nate Bittle and junior lead guard Jackson Shelstad. The pair of born and raised Oregonians were named to the Preseason All-Big Ten First Team for a reason.

In 2024-25, Bittle was ranked No. 7 in the Big Ten's rebounds per game with 7.6 and No. 2 at 2.1 blocks per game. If he can become stronger at finishing offensively with his left hand, the true seven-footer has the makings of the conference's player of the year.

Mar 23, 2025; Seattle, WA, USA; Oregon Ducks center Nate Bittle (32) dribbles the ball against Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) in the first half at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Adding in 6-10 junior forward Kwame Evans Jr. for the Ducks, who has looked to add more consistency with his shooting from beyond the arc during his offseason workouts (shot at a 26.9-percent clip from three-point range in 2024-25), is a massive bonus alongside Shelstad and Bittle. His length as a defender, both out on the wing and near the low block, has been shown.

This could be Evans Jr.'s national breakout season if he puts it all together as a more reliable scoring option when those two previously mentioned are off the floor.

Mar 23, 2025; Seattle, WA, USA; Oregon Ducks forward Kwame Evans Jr. (10) reacts after a play against the Arizona Wildcats in the first half at Climate Pledge Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images | Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

International Potential in the Backcourt

Yes, Shelstad will miss the early beginning of the preseason with a right-hand injury, his dominant hand. That's where this specific late international acquisition from Altman's staff of Chinese shooting guard Wei Lin comes into play.

At 22 years old, Lin has been one of the most dominant scorers in the Chinese Basketball Association since 2022. He recently made history as the first Chinese men’s pro to join the NCAA. Also, Oregon is the highest-ranked program a Chinese player has ever joined.

At 6-3, 175 pounds, he averaged 21.6 points (No. 15 most in the CBA), 5.3 assists, 3.4 rebounds, and 1.4 steals per game while shooting 37 percent on three-pointers and 88 percent from the charity stripe in 36 games played for the Nanjing Tongxi Monkey Kings in 2024-25.

While he's still learning the ways of American basketball, Lin can still immediately jump in and find ways to score, given his past professional experience.

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Dana Altman Finding Gems Through Transfer Portal

Genuine Altman isn't just an X's-and-O's, old-school type of guy. His on-and-off retention of his favorite members in the coaching huddle (assistant coach Tony Stubblefield, assistant coach Mike Mennenga, executive director/assistant coach Josh Jamieson) has brought multiple perspectives of the global and domestic game to college basketball in Eugene.

As previously mentioned, Lin has to pick up the slack in the backcourt after the unfortunate offseason injury to Shelstad. It might be awkward at first, but Elon Phoenix transfer TK Simpkins has not only had more time to adjust to Altman's system but can also try to help Lin convert to the American game, given his solid foundation.

Simpkins was named to the All-Coastal Athletic Association Second Team this past season while averaging a team-leading 16.4 points per game on a 42.3 field goal percentage, 36.7 three-point percentage, and 75.6 free throw percentage for Elon.

He was ranked No. 19 in the CAA with 1.1 steals per game during the 2024-25 season, and on that side of the ball, he's continuing to improve when he spoke with the Oregon Ducks on SI.

"Really, it's just whatever coach needs me to do. Whatever is needed on the court, that's what I'm going to go and provide, honestly. I would still want to have that scoring burst and be able to put the ball in the basket."
Oregon guard TK Simpkins

Nov 4, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Seth Trimble (7) and Elon Phoenix guard TK Simpkins (3) fight for a loose ball in the second half at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

Simpkins has been known for his scoring outbursts during his collegiate career, specifically through his mid-range game or when getting to the free-throw line. The same capabilities should be expected from him once Shelstad is fully healthy enough to make his way back to the floor.

One Oregon transfer that gets lost in the shuffle is Ohio State Buckeyes junior forward Sean Stewart, a former McDonald's All-American from the 2023 recruiting class. He started his career with the Duke Blue Devils before transferring to Ohio State for this past season. In 2024-25, Stewart averaged 5.7 points on a 54.2 field goal percentage and 5.8 rebounds per game in 30 starts for the Buckeyes.

How he fits in the frontcourt is uncertain, but that's okay, and there is time to figure out how the minutes all work out before it all really counts. Oregon scheduled well during the NCAA's allowed two exhibition matchups, actually against two former Pac-12 Conference opponents.

Utah Utes at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon (Friday, Oct. 24 at 7 p.m. PT on BIG+)

Stanford Cardinal at Maples Pavilion in Palo Alto, California (Thursday, Oct. 30 at 5 p.m. PT on ACC Network Extra)

This is where Altman will start to knit together how he thinks this rotation can play out, with all the previously loaded weapons and uncertain international/transfer portal options.