Advanced Analytics Predict Winner Of Oregon vs. Minnesota

The No. 8 Oregon Ducks are hosting the Minnesota Golden Gophers in what expects to be a wet and rainy Friday night Big Ten matchup. Oregon is 8-1 and will look to win out to secure a spot in the College Football Playoff. What do the analytics say?

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning talks to players in the fourth quarter as the Oregon Ducks face the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 27, 2025, at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 8 Oregon Ducks are hosting the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday, Nov. 14 at Autzen Stadium. It will be a short week for the Ducks, who are coming off a road win over the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes the past weekend. 

What do the analytics say about this Big Ten matchup?

Oregon vs. Minnesota Preview, FPI Prediction 

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) runs off the field after the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oregon a 95.8 percent chance to beat Minnesota. The Ducks have the third highest FPI rating in the Big Ten at 23.6. The Golden Gophers are at 14th with a rating of 0.6.

Oregon has an overall record of 8-1 this season and a mark of 5-1 in Big Ten play. Minnesota is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten. 

The Ducks are led by quarterback Dante Moore. Moore is in his first year as a starter in Eugene and has thrown for 1,884 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Minnesota is led by quarterback Drake Lindsey. He has thrown for 1,743 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions. 

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore throws a pass before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Oct. 25, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With three games remaining in the regular season, the Ducks control their destiny when it comes to making the College Football Playoff. Oregon is No. 8 in the most recent playoff rankings that were released by the committee. If Oregon wins out, they will be in. A loss and it could mean Oregon will miss out. It will be an exciting finish to the season.

Oregon’s remaining schedule consists of this Minnesota game and then they host the No. 17 USC Trojans before going on the road to take on the rival Washington Huskies. These are by no mean "easy games" and Oregon may have to win them all to get in the playoff. The Ducks got in last season as the No. 1 ranked team in the country following an undefeated regular season and Big Ten title.

Oregon vs. Minnesota Betting Odds

Sep 23, 2023; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach PJ Fleck on the field before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Ryan Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images | David Banks-Imagn Images

The Ducks are 25.5 point home favorites over the visiting Golden Gophers according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Oregon has odds of -2400 to win outright while Minnesota is +1200. 

The over/under is currently at 43.5 points. 

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Oregon vs. Minnesota Score Prediction

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Oregon Ducks running back Noah Whittington (6) runs the ball against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the second quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

It could very well be another rainy game for the Oregon Ducks. Both of Oregon’s last two games were in the rain and limited the Ducks offense. Expect a lot of running back Noah Whittington, who is coming off a 118 yard performance on the road at Iowa. 

This game will be low-scoring, but Oregon has shown they don’t have a problem with that. The Ducks win the game to improve to 9-1 but don’t cover the spread. 

Oregon 27, Minnesota 7

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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