Advanced Analytics Predict Winner Of Oregon vs. USC

The No. 7 Oregon Ducks welcome in the No. 15 USC Trojans to Autzen Stadium for a high stakes game with College Football Playoff hopes on the line. What do the analytics say about this top-15 Big Ten showdown?

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning, right, embraces Oregon wide receiver Justius Lowe before the game as the Oregon Ducks host the Indiana Hoosiers Oct. 11, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The No. 7 Oregon Ducks and No. 15 USC Trojans face off at Autzen Stadium with each teams' College Football Playoff hopes on the line. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 22 at12:30 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on CBS. ESPN’s College GameDay show will be in Eugene for the big game.

What do the advanced analytics say about this west coast matchup?

Oregon vs. USC Preview, FPI Prediction

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) runs off the field after the game against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives Oregon a 71.9 percent chance to beat USC at home. The Ducks have the No. 3 highest FPI rating in the Big Ten at 23.8. USC is behind them at No. 4 with a rating of 19.0. 

Oregon improved their record to 9-1 with a 42-13 win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers at home last Friday. It was the best the Ducks offense has looked in a few weeks. Quarterback Dante Moore had his best game of the season, going 27/30 passing for 306 yards with two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

USC on the other hand are 8-2 off a 26-21 win over the Iowa Hawkeyes. The win had USC go up from No. 17 to No. 15 in the playoff rankings that were released on Tuesday night. If they can win their last two games, they have a legitimate shot to make it in the 12-team playoff.

Oregon vs. USC Betting Odds

Nov 15, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws against the Iowa Hawkeyes during the first half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The Ducks are 9.5-point favorites against the visiting Trojans according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Oregon has odds of -375 to win outright while the USC is +295.

The current over/under is at 59.5 points. 

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Oregon vs. USC Score Prediction

Oregon running back Jordon Davison carries the ball as the Oregon Ducks host the Wisconsin Badgers on Oct. 25, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks have no room for error against USC. USC's high flying offense led by quarterback Jayden Maiava and wide receiver Makai Lemon can light it up. The key for the Ducks is to keep this game in between the tackles and on the ground.

Oregon running backs' Noah Whittington and Jordon Davison should be busy. In both of USC's losses this season, they were dominated by the opposing teams' running game. Oregon has a deep running back room and they should be able to capitalize on this and be productive.

Nov 14, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning, left, talks to Minnesota Golden Gophers head coach P.J. Fleck after a game at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Dante Moore will make the throws when he needs to and the Ducks will be able to come out on top. Oregon wins and covers in what will be a competitive team with star power all over the place.

This win will put the Ducks just one win away from securing a spot in the College Football Playoff if they can go on the road and beat the rival Washington Huskies the following week.

Oregon 31, USC 20

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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