Updated Big Ten Power Rankings: Oregon Ducks Surprising Conference Championship Chances?

The 2025 college football season is right around the corner, and the Oregon Ducks are looking to pick up where they left off. The Ducks were the top team in the Big Ten during the 2024 regular season, but where do they rank in the conference this year?

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning watches the seconds tick off the clock during the game against Hawaii in Eugene, Ore. Sept. 1ning 6, 2023. | Chris Pietsch/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

In their inaugural year in the Big Ten, the Oregon Ducks had an undefeated regular season and were crowned conference champions. Now the attention turns fully to the 2025 college football season as Oregon coach Dan Lanning and the Ducks work to get back to the College Football Playoff.

While the Ducks were conference champions last season, the Big Ten is tough to compete in. ESPN updated its latest Football Power Index (FPI) ahead of the 2025 season kickoff. The FPI measures a team’s strength, predicting a team’s strength moving forward in the season. In the latest rankings, the Oregon Ducks are No. 3.

 Big Ten Rankings

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day speaks to the media at the Woody Hayes Athletic Center on Thursday, July 31, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. | Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

1. Ohio State Buckeyes
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
3. Oregon Ducks
4. USC Trojans
5. Michigan Wolverines
6. Indiana Hoosiers
7. Nebraska Cornhuskers
8. Iowa Hawkeyes
9. Washington Huskies
10. Illinois Fighting Illini
11. Wisconsin Badgers
12. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
13. Minnesota Golden Gophers 
14. UCLA Bruins
15. Michigan State Spartans
16. Marland Terrapins
17. Northwestern Wildcats
18. Purdue Boilermakers

Oregon Ducks' Conference Projection

Jul 23, 2025; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Oregon head coach Dan Lanning speaks to the media during the Big Ten NCAA college football media days at Mandalay Bay Resort. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images | Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images

The Oregon Ducks are predicted to be a top-three team in the Big Ten conference, only behind the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Penn State Nittany Lions. Despite having an undefeated regular season in 2024, the Ducks have just a 1.5 percent chance of repeating that in 2025.

The win-loss projection is 9.4-2.9, with a 99.7 percent chance to win six games. Despite being ranked No. 3 in the conference, Lanning’s team still has a high projection and could make a run in the College Football Playoff. 

Last year, the Oregon Ducks defeated the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Big Ten Conference Championship game. Based on the FPI, the Ducks have just a 13.3 percent chance of winning the conference. Ohio State has the highest chance to win the conference at 35.0 percent, with Penn State right behind at 30.7 percent.

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College Football Playoff Chances

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning speaks during the coaches press conference in Los Angeles Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024, ahead of the Rose Bowl. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last season, Oregon was the No. 1-seeded team in the College Football Playoff, but lost in the quarterfinals against the Ohio State Buckeyes. This season, even with the chances of taking a step back in the regular season, the Ducks are looking to make a deeper push.

Per the FPI, the Oregon Ducks have a 51.4 percent chance of making the playoff. This means Lanning and the Ducks are more likely to make it than not, but the team has to step up. While the program may not be as highly seeded, neither of the teams to make the National Championship had a bye.

To make the championship, Oregon’s odds are lower with an 8.9 percent chance, and they have just a 3.7 percent likelihood of winning.

Toughest Games On Oregon’s Schedule

Apr 26, 2025; University Park, PA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin prior to the Blue White spring game at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

The Ducks luck out not having to face the reigning National Championship winners, the Ohio State Buckeyes, but Oregon will have to face the Penn State Nittany Lions. The game will be on Sept. 27 at Beaver Stadium.

Not only is it a road game against a tough opponent, but it will also be an extra hostile environment as it will be Penn State’s annual white out game. Oregon’s offense will have to prepare to play in one of the loudest environments this season. 

Penn State did lose two of their top players, linebacker Abdul Carter and tight end Tyler Warren, but quarterback Drew Allar and running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are all returning to the team. The Nittany Lions are coming in with much experience and will be a tough opponent.

Oregon will have four games to adjust before having to face the Nittany Lions. With a new quarterback taking the lead, this should give time to give whoever starts, whether it be Dante Moore, Austin Novosad, or Luke Moga, enough time to adjust to leading the offense.

Oregon coach Dan Lanning oversees his team as the Fighting Ducks face off against Mighty Oregon in the Oregon Ducks spring game on April 26, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene. | Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

There are a couple of games that could be sneakily tough for Oregon, such as the Indiana Hoosiers on Oct. 11. Indiana put up a fight in 2024, making the College Football Playoff, looking to take another step in 2025.

The USC Trojans have a high ceiling entering the season, but a lot ot prove. The Trojans could be another team that gives Oregon a tough fight if they play to their potential. Both the USC and Indiana matchups will be played at Autzen Stadium, giving the Ducks an advantage. Oregon winning against both of those teams could help the Ducks maintain a high ranking.

The Oregon Ducks will kick off the 2025 college football season on Aug. 30 against the Montana State Bobcats at 1 p.m. PT.