What Advanced Analytics Say About Oregon vs. Oklahoma State Matchup

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks of the Big Ten Conference are ranked No. 8 in the FPI at 22.7. Their Week 2 road opponent, the Oklahoma State Cowboys of the Big 12 Conference, are all the way down at No. 72 with a rating of -1.6.

FPI stands for Football Power Index, which is a computer-based rating system created by ESPN to measure teams' strengths on a net point scale and expected point margin versus average opponent on neutral field across college football.

Oklahoma State head coach Eric Morris walks on the field before a college football game between Oklahoma State (OSU) and Tulsa at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Okla., on Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oregon's FPI Efficiencies After Week 1

Both teams trended downward in the FPI after their Week 1 performances. Oregon, which took down the Pac-12 Conference's Boise State Broncos inside Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon, in a close 34-27 affair, fell four spots. As for Oklahoma State, first-year coach Eric Morris' group sank 18 spots after being upset by the American Conference's Tulsa Golden Hurricane on the road at H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma, 24-10.

The Ducks were much more battle-tested in their season opener against a Boise State squad under coach Spencer Danielson that has a real chance to make the College Football Playoff as the Group of Six conference representative. Here is where Oregon's different efficiencies currently stand after sneaking by the Broncos back on Sept. 5:

Overall - 74.6, No. 44
Offense - 77.1, No. 29
Defense - 67.3, No. 69
Special Teams - 47.7, No. 81

Right now, coach Dan Lanning's program has the No. 6 strength of record rank and the No. 30 remaining strength of schedule rank.

Oregon outside linebacker Teitum Tuioti pressures Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen as the Oregon Ducks host the Boise State Broncos on Sept. 5, 2026, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Oregon's Defensive Line is Unit to Keep Eye On

The Cowboys are No. 113 at 34.3 in overall efficiency at this early point in the 2026 season. If the Ducks are going to come away from Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma, with their second victory, they need their defensive line to get after redshirt sophomore quarterback Drew Mestemaker.

Morris revealed that Oklahoma State redshirt senior starting left tackle Jacob Sexton will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a lower-leg injury at Tulsa on the first offensive series.

Looking at their official depth chart, redshirt junior offensive lineman Desmond Magiya or redshirt sophomore offensive lineman Shaun Torgeson would be Sexton's replacement in the trenches. This is a major opportunity for the senior outside linebacker duo of Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti to pressure the passer and cause chaos. The pair combined for 14 tackles (four solo, 3.5 tackles for loss) and 3.5 sacks against Boise State in Week 1.

Plus, the mental mistakes from Oregon coach Joe Lorig's special teams need to be scrubbed out completely with a Cowboys team that ranks No. 9 in efficiency at 92.4 in that specific facet of the game across the entire NCAA.

Sep 5, 2026; Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker (17) looks to pass during the first half against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Oklahoma State Looks Different With Quarterback Drew Mestemaker

In Week 2 of the 2025 season, the Ducks beat former coach Mike Gundy and Oklahoma State with ease in the Pacific Northwest, 69-3. That was the worst loss in the Gundy era, and he was let go by the school after 20 full seasons when the Cowboys lost to Tulsa after getting blown out by the Ducks. This year's Oklahoma State group is very different, with 91 newcomers on the roster, including 66 transfers.

The most vital transfer acquired during this past offseason was Mestemaker, who followed Morris from the American Conference's North Texas Mean Green. Coming along with Mestemaker from North Texas to Stillwater were sophomore running back Caleb Hawkins and junior wide receiver Wyatt Young.

Morris and Mestemaker led the Mean Green to its best season in program history in 2025 with a 12-2 overall record, while finishing as the country's top-scoring offense at 45.1 points per game. Mestemaker led the nation in total passing yards at 4,379 and tied for second in passing touchdowns at 34.

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