How Oregon Ducks vs. Penn State Will Impact College Football Playoff Race

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks are preparing for what could be their toughest game of the entire season against the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions. The Ducks have been rolling to begin their 2025 season, outscoring their opponents 203-37 so far and reaching the 40-point mark on offense on three separate occasions.

Whiteout Game Carries College Football Playoff Implications

Oregon Ducks Dan Lanning Big Ten Autzen Stadium Whiteout Game Dante Moore Dakorien Moore Penn State Drew Allar — Sep 20, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) walks off the field after the game against the Oregon State Beavers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

The game in Happy Valley in week five will have a ton of implications and storylines. ESPN produced stats that show exactly what the outcome of this matchup will have for College Football Playoff implications for both Oregon and Penn State. As it stands right now, Oregon has a 72 percent chance to make the CFP, while Penn State has a 40 percent chance.

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With a win for Oregon, that 72 percent chance would boost up to 87 percent, while an Oregon loss would drop the Ducks down to a 58 percent chance of making the CFP. It is interesting to note that, according to ESPN stats, Oregon would have a better chance of reaching the postseason with a loss than Penn State would have with a win in week five.

NCAA Football Penn State quarterback Drew Allar Oregon Ducks Dante Moore White Ou — NCAA Football Penn State quarterback Drew Allar | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Penn State’s chances to make the CFP would drop to shocking 24 percent chance with a loss to the Ducks.

In addition to national implications, the Penn State-Oregon matchup has a huge effect in the Big Ten standings. A win for either side would all but give them one foot in the door of a Big Ten championship game appearance, as long as the rest of the season goes how most experts see it playing out.

After playing the Ducks, Penn State's biggest test will be a road game against Ohio State.

Penn State Coach James Franklin Praises Dante Moore

Penn State coach James Franklin has been vocal this past week, both when praising Oregon and when taking shots at Fox Sports for attempting to put the White Out game at noon. Franklin highlighted Moore's journey, transferring to Oregon to sit behind former Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel.

"I don't think it's a whole lot different. He's a throw-first guy, very accurate. They both had the ability to extend plays. I would say that Dante (Moore) runs a little bit more than they had in the past, but Dillon (Gabriel) was a really good athlete as well. So I think it's still very similar. And I think that Dante sitting behind Dillon for a year was really valuable for his development," said Franklin.

The matchup is the first between the Ducks and Nittany Lions since the Big Ten Championship game in 2024. Oregon emerged victorious in the last time out, but both teams have newer looks to them after losing some key players. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has the opportunity to write himself into a long list of Oregon quarterbacking lore with a win in Happy Valley in week 5.