TCU’s Mid-Season Bowl Projection is a Familiar Destination

The Frogs may be headed back to the site of one of their strangest bowl memories.

Sep 20, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver Eric McAlister (1) and wide receiver Jordan Dwyer (7) celebrate after McAlister scores a touchdown against the SMU Mustangs during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images | Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

Seven weeks of the college football regular season have come and gone, and we’ve learned quite a bit about which teams are truly competitive and which aren’t up to snuff with the rest of the field. We’ve also gained a clearer picture of TCU’s standing in the Big 12, and how the Frogs’ performance the rest of the way could influence where they land in the postseason.

And while an appearance in the College Football Playoff, or even a conference championship, might not be on the horizon for the folks in Fort Worth, there’s still plenty to play for over the final stretch. There’s also a lot to watch when it comes to the rest of the league. That’s what this bowl projection aims to do.

Projecting college bowl games is a difficult endeavor. Each conference has affiliations and tie-ins with specific bowls, but those parameters are often flexible when needed. Still, this piece has done its best to place TCU, and the rest of the Big 12, where they’re most likely to land at season’s end, based on, and this is important, the results so far.

 The Frogs Could Be Heading Back to Phoenix

Dec 26, 2018; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Texas Christian Horned Frogs linebacker Jawuan Johnson (1) returns an interception in overtime against the California Golden Bears in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images | Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Don’t worry, TCU fans—a lowly trip to the New Mexico Bowl probably isn’t on the horizon for the Horned Frogs this year. Unfortunately, the alternative might not be much more appealing, as the Frogs are projected to play in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, on Dec. 26 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. That’s right. TCU could be heading back to the site of the infamous 2018 Cheez-It Bowl, where the Frogs and California combined for nine interceptions in an ugly 10-7 overtime victory for TCU. One can only hope history doesn’t repeat itself this time around.

There’s certainly a path for TCU to reach a more prestigious postseason game if it starts performing more consistently down the line. But as things stand, it’s clear the Frogs remain a consistently inconsistent football team, making them a prime candidate to just barely go bowling.

Only One Big 12 Team Projects to Make the College Football Playoff

Sep 20, 2025; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders quarterback Behren Morton (2) directs the play against the Utah Utes during the second quarter at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Gray-Imagn Images | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

The Big 12 is Texas Tech’s conference to lose. There’s just no team right now that looks capable of putting up any considerable resistance. So, with the Red Raiders looking like they might just be able to run the table, they slot in as the No. 4 overall seed with a bye in the College Football Playoff.

According to the Week 8 AP Top 25, that would set up a matchup against either No. 5 Indiana (I’m projecting the Hoosiers to lose to Ohio State in the Big Ten championship) or No. 12 South Florida on Dec. 31 in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, with a chance to become just the third Texas school to win a CFP game.

The rest of the Big 12 bowl projections are as follows:

• First Responder Bowl (Dec. 26) - Iowa State vs. North Texas

• Pop-Tarts Bowl (Dec. 27) - BYU vs. Virginia

• Texas Bowl (Dec. 27) - Baylor vs. Missouri

• Independence Bowl (Dec. 30) - Kansas vs. Western Kentucky

• Alamo Bowl (Dec. 30) - Utah vs. USC

• Sun Bowl (Dec. 31) - Arizona vs. SMU

• Armed Forces Bowl (Jan. 2) - Houston vs. Army

• Liberty Bowl (Jan. 2) - Cincinnati vs. Vanderbilt

• Holiday Bowl (Jan. 2) - Arizona State vs. Notre Dame

In total, 11 of the 16 schools in the conference are projected to make the postseason. Of course, that’s all subject to change with seven weeks of regular-season football still to go. The wildness and wackiness of the Big 12 might just be getting started, and figuring out where each team will land once the dust settles is only going to get trickier.

And as mentioned earlier, if TCU hopes to climb up the ranks and play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl or Texas Bowl, for example, then it needs to start winning football games, starting on Saturday versus Baylor. Hey, maybe this weekend's matchup against the Bears is actually just a battle for which team gets the hallowed honor of playing in the Texas Bowl. If that's the case, then sign me up.