Volunteer Country

What Does ESPN's FPI Say About The Matchup Against Syracuse?

Tennessee a heavy favorite on a neutral field in Atlanta on Saturday
Najeh Wilkins|
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel during Tennessee football preseason practice, in Knoxville, Tennessee, July 31, 2025.
Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel during Tennessee football preseason practice, in Knoxville, Tennessee, July 31, 2025. | Caitie McMekin/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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Tennessee Volunteers

A lot of eyes will be on the Tennessee Volunteers as they dawn a new era at the quarterback position with Joey Aguilar earning the starting quarterback position at the conclusion of fall camp. Aguilar continued to garner the trust of his teammates and the staff with his approach and his preparation. Head coach Josh Heupel received a contract extension through the 2030 football season, which was a big announcement this past week for the Vols.

This very well could be on the best defenses that Tennessee has had in the Heupel era, with playmakers all over the backend, a strong defensive front, and a future NFL linebacker in Arion Carter. The Vols should be able to stifle and frustrate a lot of opponents this upcoming year. The biggest question is how long it will take the offense to catch up to the defense and be able to complement it well. Will it take a few games, midseason, or well into conference play? If Tennessee can run the ball well with its stable of backs, take care of the football, and lean on the defense they should be able to win the majority of their games. With Week 1 just a day away for the Vols, let’s take a look at what ESPN Analytics had to say about the matchup.

Heading into the matchup against Syracuse, Tennessee is a heavy favorite on a neutral field to beat the Orange. The Vols are given an 88.6% chance to win and Syracuse just 11.4%. Despite some of the roster turnover and differences, Tennesse is expected to handle business and is nearly a two touchdown favorite on Saturday.

Ahead of the 2025 season, Tennessee is ranked as the No. 8 team according to the College Football Power Index. The Vols projected win total falls between 3.2-9.0 wins for 2025. They have a 99.5% chance to win six games this upcoming season. The Vols also have a 42.4% of making the College Football Payoff according to the index. It is a little surprising to see the Vols viewed in that way when a lot of the national media has overlooked the program, but the analytics sees it differently. ​

So what is ESPN FPI?

“ESPN uses its FPI (Football Power Index) as an advanced analytical model to help look at matchups and predict outcomes. In ESPN's own words: "FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

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Najeh Wilkins
NAJEH WILKINS

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