How Each Projected UCLA Starter Could Fall Short

While it is easy to project that each player will reach their ceiling next season, there is still a significant chance that UCLA’s starters disappoint.

The Bruins have a lot of talent on the roster — that much is obvious. But what is not as obvious is how each player could regress next season and what the implications would be for the team. Below are projected outcomes for each starter if they were to play below expectations.

Trent Perry | PG

The consensus starting point guard all season will most likely be Trent Perry. Not only was he UCLA’s third-leading scorer last season, but he became the heart and soul of UCLA’s offense. With his role shifting, we could either see Perry become a superstar or simply another guard in the Big Ten.

For Perry to play below expectations, a few things would need to happen. First, his scoring ability would need to plummet as he becomes UCLA’s primary facilitator. Second, Perry could struggle with his role as UCLA’s offensive leader. Either outcome is completely feasible for a player entering a much larger role.

So when projecting his stats, if he misses expectations, it can be inferred that his scoring would decrease, while his assist numbers would not be high enough to compensate for the offensive drop. While unlikely, it is possible.

Floor Stat Projection: 11.5 PPG, 4.7 AST, 2.3 REB

Jaylen Petty | SG

Jaylen Petty is one of the most impactful players UCLA brought in this offseason. Not only was his scoring strong last season at Texas Tech, but his rebounding is also a very underrated part of his game. But even so, no player is immune to adjusting to a new system.

For Petty to miss expectations, his scoring would likely stay around the 9.9 points per game mark he averaged last season. Even though Petty should have an expanded role in UCLA’s offense, anything below 12 points per game would likely be considered disappointing.

The primary catalyst for Petty struggling next season would be the growing pains of entering Mick Cronin’s system. Last season, we saw how Donovan Dent struggled early to find his rhythm. The same story could potentially repeat itself with Petty.

Floor Stat Projection: 8.6 PPG, 4.3 REB, 2.3 AST

Eric Dailey Jr. | SF

Eric Dailey Jr. is entering the season as a senior, meaning this will likely be his best year as a Bruin. Considering UCLA lost two of its primary scorers in Dent and Tyler Bilodeau, Dailey Jr. will need to have an outstanding offensive season. But like the others on this list, that is easier said than done.

Even though Dailey Jr. prides himself on creating offense for himself, he could still be affected by poor guard play. If he and Perry are unable to get on the same page quickly, we could see a significant drop in Dailey Jr.’s scoring production next season.

That, combined with how crowded UCLA’s frontcourt looks, could mean Dailey Jr. does not see the court as much as many project. Because of that, his production could fluctuate significantly depending on how UCLA’s rotation develops. In this nightmare scenario, Dailey Jr. does see growth from season to season.

Floor Stat Projection: 10.2 PPG, 4.8 REB, 1.2 AST

Filip Jovic | PF

At power forward, we will most likely see Filip Jovic. This is by far one of the most competitive positions on the roster, as several players could realistically compete for the role. As a result, Jovic could struggle to meet expectations early on.

There are three other players who could challenge for UCLA’s starting power forward spot next season: Joe Philon, Brandon Williams, and Sergej Macura. Each player brings a different skill set, which could impact how many minutes Jovic actually receives. As a result, his expectations may be somewhat skewed.

With inconsistent minutes and the challenges of moving into a new system, we could see Jovic struggle early in the season. However, his physicality and instincts suggest he can still be efficient enough to avoid the major regression that some players experience year to year.

Floor Stat Projection: 7.2 PPG, 4.9 REB, 1.2 AST

Xavier Booker | C

At center, UCLA will likely turn to Xavier Booker. Not only is Booker UCLA’s tallest player, but he is also the most experienced in Cronin’s system and improved considerably late last season. However, if the same problems from last season continue, it could become disastrous for both UCLA and Booker.

There is not much competition at the center position. Booker and Jovic are projected to be the two primary options, as UCLA has still been unable to land a true traditional big man. Once again, competition and inconsistent roles could play a part in Booker having a rough 2026-27 season.

If Booker has stretches where his defense is subpar, we could see him pulled from games very quickly. The same thing happened last season, and we saw how inconsistent his minutes were. That is definitely one pathway for Booker to miss expectations.

Floor Stat Projection: 8.3 PPG, 4.3 REB, 1.2 AST

Mar 20, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Mick Cronin in the second half during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The bottom line is that UCLA has a lot of talent, but there are also many factors that could cause regression from season to season. For UCLA to avoid this, there needs to be stability within Cronin’s rotation. Without that, it could have serious implications throughout the year.

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