Revisiting UCLA Football's Preseason Expectations After Four Games

Before the season began, most fans seemed to agree that a 6-6 final record and a bowl game would be enough to consider Year 1 under Bob Chesney a success.

Four games in, the Bruins are 4-0 and show no sign of slowing down anytime soon. It’s hard to imagine UCLA finishing this season 2-6 with an even .500 record, so with that in mind, what is the new expectation for UCLA?

The New Ceiling

Sep 5, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney (center) yells at field judge Timothy Maguire (left) during the first quarter against the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the Bruins already at 4-0 and now ranked at No. 23 in the latest AP Poll, the ceiling has to be much higher. With a true road test in Eugene coming up, a Bruins win would raise the ceiling even higher. For now, if everything goes right for the Bruins, I think an 11-1 record is truly the ceiling for this team, with the only loss coming against Oregon.

Both Wisconsin and Minnesota are shaping up to be surprisingly formidable opponents, but I think the Bruins can get the job done against each, and beat Michigan at home. My most realistic record prediction is 9-3 or 10-2, the previous ceiling we set back in August.

Sep 5, 2026; Berkeley, California, USA; UCLA Bruins head coach Bob Chesney celebrates after defeating the California Golden Bears at California Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

After Oregon, UCLA faces Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nevada, Minnesota, and Illinois in the next five-game stretch, so if the Bruins can take down the Ducks, I think there’s a real chance UCLA will be 10-0 heading into their final two games of the season.

Following that, Michigan seems very beatable, and the rivalry game against USC to end the season is shaping up to be the best matchup between the two teams in years.

The New Floor

Sep 26, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; UCLA Bruins defensive back Scooter Jackson (1) celebrates in the end zone after returning an interception 65-yards for a touchdown in the second half against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

UCLA’s floor is also much higher. We previously predicted the Bruins floor to be a record of 3-9, matching last season’s record, a mark they have already surpassed. As I mentioned, Wisconsin and Minnesota have looked like surprises in the conference so far this season, so in a worst-case scenario, I could see the Bruins ending with a 7-5 record, with losses to Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and USC.

If the Bruins can stay healthy and reach the end of the season with only two losses, I believe they could have a good argument for a spot in the College Football Playoff, a mark that would have been unthinkable a year ago. What Bob Chesney has done with the Bruins so far is incredible, and the best part is that it’s just getting started.

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