USC Relying on Elite Freshman Guard to Help Guide Trojans to NCAA Tournament

The USC Trojans are on the bubble for the upcoming NCAA Tournament with less than a month to go in the regular season. Since the return of star freshman Alijah Arenas, the Trojans' chances for making the Big Dance have been trending upward.

Dec 21, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts in the second half against the UC Santa Cruz at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans are making a late push for the upcoming 2026 NCAA Tournament following the return of Alijah Arenas from a pre-season knee injury. With less than a month to go in the regular season, the Trojans are relying on Arenas to power them to March Madness for the first time in Eric Musselman’s tenure. 

After a hot start to the season, the Trojans cooled off in a big way to begin Big Ten play, but have since begun to find their stride since Arenas’ return from injury. USC is 3-2 since his return on Jan. 21. 

Missing their key freshman

Jan 21, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) enters the court before the game against the Northwestern Wildcats at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Through the first two months of the season, USC only lost one game. It was an impressive start to begin the year considering the Trojans were missing their star freshman in Arenas to begin the season.

Arenas suffered a knee injury prior to the start of the season and was expected to miss a significant chunk of the year.

Once conference play began, the Trojans saw their fair share of struggles against the best teams in the Big Ten. USC battled against No. 2 Michigan, No. 12 Michigan State, and No. 5 Purdue without Arenas and lost. 

Arenas was ranked as the No. 1 shooting guard and No. 10 player in the country according to 247Sports’ rankings. He was expected to be a massive part of year two for Musselman and instead missed the first 18 games of the season before debuting vs. Northwestern on Jan. 21.  

Quickly making his mark

Jan 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans guard Alijah Arenas (0) reacts against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Working with plenty of freedom in the backcourt thanks to Rodney Rice’s season-ending injury, Arenas threw himself back into the fray vs. the Wildcats. 

The freshman had eight points on 3 of 15 shooting from the field with two steals and two rebounds in his season debut. 

Arenas had a couple more performances where he failed to crack double-digit points before exploding for 29 points in a big win vs. Indiana on Feb. 3 in just his fifth game back. 

MORE: USC Narrows In on Major Move to Replace Defensive Line Coach Eric Henderson

MORE: The True Impact of National Signing Day on USC Trojans

MORE: The Ripple Effect Of Washington Commanders Hiring Eric Henderson From USC

SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER HERE!  

What lies ahead for the Trojans

Jan 31, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Eric Musselman reacts against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in the second half at Galen Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Trojans have their work cut out for them ahead as they try to lock up a bid for the NCAA Tournament. USC is on the right side of the bubble but still has a daunting schedule ahead.

After a road trip to Penn State and Ohio State, the Trojans will host No. 5 Illinois in a high-stakes affair at Galen Center on Feb. 18. They will also host No. 9 Nebraska on Feb. 28. Both of those games are resume-changing opportunities for USC. 

Arenas will have two opportunities to take down the Trojans’ crosstown rivals in UCLA. The two teams play twice in eight days at the end of the regular season. 

If the Trojans are able to finish above .500 in their final seven games of the season, it should be enough to lift them into the tournament come March.