What The Advanced Analytics Predict For USC vs. Northwestern

The No. 19 USC Trojans host the Northwestern Wildcats on Friday night at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. USC coach Lincoln Riley and his team are coming off a road win against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and will look to improve to 7-2 with a win.

Sep 2, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Nevada Wolf Pack in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The No. 19 USC Trojans are back in Los Angeles following a road win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers and will face the Northwestern Wildcats. It’s a short week and kickoff between the Trojans and Wildcats will be on Friday, Nov. 1 at 6 p.m. PT. The game will be broadcast on FOX.

Do the analytics favor USC coach Lincoln Riley’s team?

USC vs. Northwestern Preview, FPI Prediction

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Trojans a 90.8 percent chance to beat the visiting Wildcats. USC has the fourth highest rating in the Big Ten at 18.9. Northwestern is 11th at 3.0.

The Trojans are coming off a much needed road victory against Nebraska. It was a defensive battle that USC came out on top by a final score of 21-17. It was just the third road win for USC since the beginning of the 2024 season. 

The defense picked up the offense and quarterback Jayden Maiava to improve USC’s record to 6-2 on the season and 4-1 in Big Ten play. There is still a chance for the Trojans to make it into the 12-team College Football Playoff if they win their remaining four games. 

Nov 1, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) looks to pass against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the second quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Northwestern is off a bye week. Their last game, like USC, was on the road against Nebraska. The Wildcats lost a close one, falling 28-21. This ended their four-game winning streak. They are 5-3 overall this season and have a 3-2 record in Big Ten conference play. 

The Wildcats are led by running back Caleb Komolafe. He has 124 carries for 608 yards and seven rushing touchdowns on the season including his 125 yards, two touchdown performance against Nebraska. 

USC vs. Northwestern Betting Odds

Oct 11, 2025; University Park, Pennsylvania, USA; Northwestern Wildcats running back Caleb Komolafe (5) breaks a tackle while running the ball during the fourth quarter against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Beaver Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images | Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images

USC is a 14-point home favorite against Northwestern according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trojans have odds of -675 to win outright while the Wildcats are at +490. The current over/under is at 50.5 points. 

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USC vs. Northwestern Score Prediction 

Nov 1, 2025; Lincoln, Nebraska, USA; Southern California Trojans running back King Miller (30) runs against the Nebraska Cornhuskers during the fourth quarter at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn Images | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Three of USC's remaining four games will be at home. For USC to have any chance to make it to their first ever College Football Playoff, they have to win all of these. It begins with Northwestern on Friday night. 

Northwestern is not going to roll over. They will aim to keep the ball on the ground and keep the ball away from the USC offense. The Trojans have more firepower and will have what hopes to be a good crowd behind them. 

Quarterback Jayden Maiava will have a bounce back game and the defense will pick up where they left off last week. Trojans will win and just edge out a cover to improve to 7-2 on the season.

USC 34, Northwestern 17

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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