Lincoln Riley On Hot Seat? Make-Or-Break Season For USC Trojans Coach

Lincoln Riley will enter the USC Trojans' 2025 college football season with one of the nation’s top-ranked recruiting classes, a revamped coaching staff, and a defense expected to make another leap under D’Anton Lynn. But with back-to-back disappointing seasons behind him and USC now fully entrenched in the Big Ten, the margin for error has narrowed.

Questions are mounting for the program: Is this a make-or-break year for Riley in Los Angeles?

The pressure isn’t just coming from fans. In May, ESPN’s Paul Finebaum labeled Riley a “fraud,” saying the former Oklahoma coach “bailed out” of the Big 12 and has failed to live up to expectations since arriving at USC. It was a blistering national take, but not one without context. USC went 6-7 in 2023, and while 2024 showed modest improvement, the Trojans fell short of the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year.

Nov 30, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the second half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

What makes 2025 different is the convergence of expectations. Riley now has a defense with teeth. After hiring Lynn away from UCLA before the 2024 season, USC’s defense trimmed its points allowed per game by more than 10, from 34.4 to 24.1. Another leap forward, paired with Riley’s track record on offense, could put USC back in the national conversation.

That’s the hope, and Riley’s offseason moves suggest he knows it’s time to deliver. In January, he hired longtime strength coach Trumain Carroll as USC's director of football sports performance. Carroll arrived from Kansas State, where he helped turn the Wildcats into a physically dominant Big 12 program.

Riley praised Carroll’s culture-building ability, calling him someone who “will have a tremendous impact on our program.”

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But paper resumes don’t win games. USC hasn’t won a conference title since 2017 and hasn’t reached the College Football Playoff since its inception. The last time the Trojans won 11 or more games in consecutive seasons was under Pete Carroll in the late 2000s. It’s been nearly two decades since USC consistently belonged among college football’s elite.

Now in the Big Ten, USC’s road only gets harder. The Trojans will face Michigan, Penn State, and Washington in 2025, along with their traditional rivalry games against Notre Dame and UCLA. They also return from a 2024 campaign where they struggled in key moments and couldn’t close out marquee matchups.

Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) carries the ball against Texas A&M. — Dec 27, 2024; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Southern California Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) carries the ball against Texas A&M Aggies defensive back BJ Mayes (20) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Still, not everyone is ready to write off Riley. An anonymous Big Ten coach recently talked to Athlon Sports about USC’s potential improvements on defense: "We’re talking about a team that can go in and play with the best programs in the nation again.”

That sentiment has been echoed by others who still view Riley as one of the top offensive minds in the game.

But USC didn’t hire Riley to almost contend. They hired him to win the Big Ten, get to the College Football Playoff, and return the Trojans to national prominence. Anything short of that in 2025, and the “fraud” label from Finebaum and others may stick longer than anyone in Los Angeles wants.

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