USC Trojans Betting Odds vs. Purdue Shift After Money Comes In

The USC Trojans are nearly three touchdown favorites this weekend as they travel to Purdue to take on the Boilermakers in their first Big Ten game of the season. Can the Trojans make it three consecutive weeks of covering the spread to begin the season?

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The USC Trojans have covered the spread in back-to-back weeks to begin the season. In their 59-20 win over Georgia Southern, the Trojans were able to cover as -28.5 favorites vs. the Eagles. And in their season opener vs. Missouri State, USC easily covered the spread in the 73-13 win.

Now entering Big Ten Conference play this week vs. Purdue, the Trojans will open as nearly three touchdown favorites vs. the Boilermakers. With the competition level rising, USC will need to bring their best in order to cover for a third consecutive week.

Purdue Gaining Traction?

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans wide receiver Makai Lemon (6) runs down field for a touchdown on a pass play during the first half against the Georgia Southern Eaglesat Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC opened up as -21.5 point favorites vs. Purdue according to ESPN BET, but have since dropped to -20.5 point favorites, indicating a shift towards Purdue covering the spread. After blowing out their first two opponents of the season, USC faces a Purdue team that has also jumped out to a 2-0 start.

Keys To Covering

Purdue Boilermakers offensive coordinator Josh Henson looks down field Saturday, April 12, 2025, during the spring showcase at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind. | Alex Martin/Journal and Courier / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Trojans' pass attack has been clicking with quarterback Jayden Maiava playing at an effective clip. If they want to continue to blow teams out, he will need to keep up his hot start.

He's completed 73 percent of his passes this season for 707 yards and six touchdowns. Arguably the most important stat is that he's thrown zero interceptions through two games after throwing one in three of his four starts last season.

Purdue's offense hasn't faced the best defenses in Southern Illinois and Ball State, but still have put up consecutive 30-point games. The Boilermakers will have the best offense USC has seen and the Trojans will be tested as a result. If USC's defense is able to keep Purdue out of the end zone and forces them to settle for field goals and punts, their chances of covering the spread rises significantly.

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Predictions for USC vs. Purdue

Sep 6, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) throws a pass during the first half against the Georgia Southern Eagles at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

USC will come out on top in this one with ease. They are favored by multiple touchdowns for a reason and although Purdue has raced out to a 2-0 start, the Trojans are simply the more talented team. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives USC a 92.7 percent chance of coming out with the win this weekend.

Purdue coach Barry Odom has the program trending back in the right direction in his first year at the helm after the Boilermakers finished 1-11 last year. Unfortunately for Odom and Purdue, their first Big Ten game is against one of the best programs in the conference.

The Trojans should be 3-0 and 1-0 in Big Ten play heading into their late-night home game vs. Michigan State on September 20 before a huge, potentially ranked, matchup on the road at Illinois the following weekend.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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