USC Trojans' College Football Fate Decided By Upcoming Schedule Gauntlet

The No. 21 USC Trojans are slowly climbing the AP Top 25 Poll after a 4–0 start, and one analyst believes their season will be defined not by Illinois this week, but by a looming five-game Big Ten gauntlet that could decide their College Football Playoff hopes.

Sep 20, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches game action against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

After a convincing 45–21 victory over Michigan State to advance to 4–0 on the season (2–0 in Big Ten play), the No. 21 USC Trojans are quickly gaining momentum.

They jumped from No. 25 to No. 21 in this week’s AP Top 25 poll, setting up a pivotal road trip to Illinois. The Fighting Illini, meanwhile, are trying to recover after being humbled in a 63–10 blowout loss to Indiana in their conference opener.

After facing Illinois, the Trojans will face No. 19 Michigan, No. 22 Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa, and No. 6 Oregon in a stretch that could make or break USC's College Football Playoff hopes.

Illinois, Then the Real Test

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley stands on the sidelines during the first quarter against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Illinois entered last week ranked No. 9, but their lopsided defeat dropped them all the way to No. 23, barely clinging to a Top 25 spot.

Against Indiana, Illinois’ defense gave up more than 200 rushing yards and was carved apart through the air as Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw five touchdowns on just 23 pass attempts.

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Isaiah Jones (46) sacks Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) during the first half at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Still, Illinois coach Bret Bielema’s program isn’t one to overlook. Illinois’ defense, particularly its front seven, remains physical, generating 12 sacks so far this season—including two in the loss to Indiana.

Offensively, the Illini lean on a ground game that ranks 7th in the Big Ten, powered by junior running back Kaden Feagin, while senior quarterback Luke Altmyer adds balance with surprising efficiency.

Altmyer is completing 70 percent of his passes, ranking 25th nationally and 10th among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.

Sep 20, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) warms up prior to the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images | Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

For USC, the trip to Champaign is less about headlines and more about focus. The Trojans went just 1–4 in true road games last season, losing at Michigan, Minnesota, Maryland, and Washington.

That history makes Illinois a legitimate measuring stick, regardless of last week’s scoreline.

Yet as important as this game is for momentum, the bigger story comes immediately afterward: a five-game run that will define the Trojans’ season.

The Big Ten Gauntlet

Sep 13, 2025; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) talks with Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley before the game against the Purdue Boilermakers at Ross-Ade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

From there, the schedule turns unforgiving. The Trojans face five matchups that will determine their postseason fate:

- Michigan – A heavyweight showdown in Los Angeles against one of the nation’s most physical offensive lines.

- Notre Dame – Off to a rocky start but always dangerous in a rivalry where pride matters more than records.

- Nebraska – A program finding its footing under Matt Rhule, powered by a rugged ground attack and improving defense.

- Iowa – Struggling on offense but boasting one of the most consistent defenses in college football, especially in the secondary.

- Oregon – A high-powered attack in Eugene, where Autzen Stadium remains one of the toughest road environments in the sport.

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts during the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

On his show The Hard Count, On3 college football analyst J.D. Pickell summed it up bluntly: “If you go three and two in that stretch, you're in the College Football Playoff. Three and two to me isn't unrealistic.”

That’s the line for USC. Anything less, and the Trojans risk falling back into the pack. But find three wins in that gauntlet—especially against Michigan or Oregon—and USC instantly moves from overlooked to legitimate.

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Everything Still to Play For

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches from the sidelines against the Missouri State Bears in the first half at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

For now, USC has taken care of business, cracked the rankings, and is climbing the AP Poll. But the program’s real test isn’t beating Michigan State or keeping Illinois down—it’s proving they can handle the heavyweights of the Big Ten.

The margin is thin, the opponents are brutal, but the opportunity is undeniable.

If USC finds a way to go 3–2 in that defining stretch, the Trojans won’t just be back in the conversation. They’ll be part of it.