Virginia Football gets new projected win total — Over/Under prediction plus confidence level

A few weeks ago, BetMGM released its futures for the 2026 ACC football season. Some projections are unsurprising — Miami is in the double digits, for example. However, BetMGM was surprisingly low on Virginia, Syracuse, Louisville, and SMU. On the other hand, Florida State and Virginia Tech may be too high.

NEW: 2026 College Football ACC Win Totals via @BetMGM‼️

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Here are my calls based on the BetMGM win totals:

Boston College: Under 3.5. Extreme confidence

Why: A better question might be why not. This was a mediocre football team in 2025, and it lost more talent than it added this offseason.

Stanford: Under 3.5. Solid confidence

Why: New Coach Tavita Pritchard could rebuild something special on The Farm, but for now, he inherits a roster with little talent — a lot of it transferred elsewhere.

Syracuse: Over 4.5. Solid confidence

Why: Quarterback Steve Angeli is back. If he stays healthy, the Orange should be a darkhorse ACC squad that could author a major upset or two.

North Carolina: Under 4.5. High confidence

Why: Where is the scoring going to come from? The Tar Heels averaged the second-fewest points per game in the ACC last year. This offense may have gotten even worse personnel-wise.

Wake Forest: Over 5.5. Solid confidence

Why: This defense tied for the third-fewest touchdowns allowed by an ACC team. The offense is questionable though. The floor is high but the ceiling is low.

Duke: Under 5.5. Medium confidence

Why: Darian Mensah, Cooper Barkate, Chandler Rivers, Brian Parker II, Wesley Williams, Que’Sean Brown and more are gone. This ceiling is low. It sure is hard to bet against this program, though.

Florida State: Under 6.5. Extreme confidence

Why: Under Coach Mike Norvell, the Seminoles have been a losing team every year other than 2022 and 2023. The norm under Norvell is losing, not being a College Football Playoff contender.

California: Over 6.5. Solid confidence

Why: Elite quarterback, elite running back and a new defensive-minded head coach. The Golden Bears should surprise and be ultra-competitive this season.

Georgia Tech: Under 6.5. Neutral confidence

Why: Can Alberto Mendoza fill the void left by Haynes King? He is going to have to prove himself. Coach Brent Key has earned some trust — but I predict a 6-6 record for the Yellow Jackets.

Virginia Tech: Under 6.5. Extreme confidence

Why: As mentioned before, the Hokies have one of the hardest schedules in the ACC. They should start 4-0, but it is likely that they finish with a 2-6 or 1-7 stretch for the rest of the campaign.

NC State: Under 7.5. Low confidence

Why: The defense ranked 12th in the ACC last year. It is not an inspiring group. However, quarterback CJ Bailey is electric and could carry the Wolfpack to some extra wins.

Clemson: Over 7.5. Neutral confidence

Why: They are resetting post-Cade Klubnik, and no one knows what to expect. An 8-4 campaign seems likely — but for the once-mighty Clemson, even that feels like a slight disappointment.

Virginia: Over 7.5. Extreme confidence

Why: Where could five losses possibly come from? Even if Virginia loses its intimidating road games at SMU, Virginia Tech and Florida State, it would take a series of incredibly unfortunate events (the length of War and Peace) for the Cavaliers to lose two other games on a schedule like this.

Pitt: Over 7.5. Low confidence

Why: Who steps up other than quarterback Mason Heintschel? He led the second-best scoring offense in the ACC, but the ceiling will depend on this defense. They need to prove themselves.

Louisville: Over 7.5. High confidence

Why: Like Virginia, Louisville is built on an elite run game and stable offensive line. That should inspire confidence, even though the Cardinals start a rather inexperienced quarterback.

SMU: Over 8.5. Extreme confidence

Why: SMU was a few plays away from going 9-3 or 10-2 last regular season. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is back, Coach Rhett Lashlee is a floor-raiser and the Mustangs should be an elite team.

Miami: Over 10.5. Extreme confidence

Why: It would probably be a major disappointment if the Hurricanes fail to win the national championship. This team is loaded with NFL talent at most positions.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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