Way-too-early 2026 opponent preview: Virginia and Virginia Tech, new heavyweights?

The road to Charlotte, N.C. for the ACC Championship game is long. It leaves little margin for error. But if Virginia football repeats its 2025 success, it could once again find itself needing a win over Virginia Tech in order to book a trip back to Charlotte.

This time around, the Cavaliers are the more established program with high hopes and the experience to inspire confidence. The Hokies, meanwhile, hit the reset button enthusiastically. They hired Coach James Franklin, a new athletic director and are starting over under the leadership of the longtime Penn State head coach.

The Commonwealth Clash at Lane Stadium will be a battle between two growing programs. But before diving into the newly intriguing rivalry, a look at Virginia’s first 11 games:

The road to Blacksburg

Aug. 29: NC State

Sept. 11: Norfolk State

Sept. 19: West Virginia (in Charlotte, N.C.)

Sept. 26: Delaware

Oct. 3: at Florida State

Oct. 10: Syracuse

Oct. 17: at SMU

Oct. 23: Duke

Oct. 31: at Wake Forest

Nov. 14: Cal

Nov. 21: North Carolina

The Cavaliers have a very strong chance of winning at least eight or nine of those games. They could be well-positioned to earn a spot in the ACC Championship game — although that likely requires a hard-to-earn win at SMU. There is also a chance that Virginia needs a win in Blacksburg in order to return to Charlotte.

Regardless of ACC standings, the Commonwealth Clash is always a crucial game. The Cavaliers have a chance to win two straight against the Hokies, which has not happened since 1997 and 1998, the last time Virginia won in Blacksburg.

Who is going to score?

Tony Elliott Virginia Cavalier — Dec 27, 2025; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott looks on from the sideline during the third quarter against the Missouri Tigers at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Travis Register-Imagn Images | Travis Register-Imagn Images

Offensively, Virginia is doubling down on its commitment to the ground attack. The Cavaliers have the most experienced roster in the country — a statistic fueled by a rare abundance of All-ACC veterans on the offensive line, and a tantalizing crew of running backs that features six candidates worthy of a starting role. The run game will be a dependable anchor for new quarterback Beau Pribula.

Pribula’s 11-9 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions at Missouri last year is certainly a poor mark. However, he played through multiple injuries, and six percent of those nine interceptions came against No. 8 Alabama, at Auburn and at No. 8 Oklahoma.

Pribula also completed nearly three percent more of his pass attempts than Chandler Morris in 2025. With the Tigers, Pribula was sacked seven more times than Morris was at Virginia, even though he played in three fewer games. It would be foolish to assume that Pribula’s quarterbacking will fall very short of what Morris provided in 2025.

As for the Hokies, they are committing to Franklin’s spread, pro-style offense. Running back Marcellous Hawkins is back — and he could be in for a major breakout season. Hawkins ran for 749 yards and one touchdown last season at 6.3 yards per carry. He is supplemented by Louisiana transfer Bill Davis, who ran for 767 yards and six touchdowns at 4.9 yards per carry last season.

In the passing game, Virginia Tech added Que’Sean Brown, an incredibly talented Duke transfer. Brown tallied 846 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He figures to be the Hokies’ No. 1 receiver. He will be relied upon by new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, a redshirt sophomore who started for Franklin’s Nittany Lions in the back half of the 2025 season.

Grunkemeyer is an unknown quantity. His first three starts last year were against Iowa, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana. He was able to hold his own to some extent, although Penn State lost all three games. Grunkemeyer then led his team to three wins over Big Ten bottomfeeders Michigan State, Rutgers and Nebraska.

Grunkemeyer did play one game that was not against CFP contenders or basement dwellers. That game was when he led the Nittany Lions to a win over Clemson in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl. The sample size is small.

The new Hokie quarterback is generally a safe passer who avoids interceptions, although he is not a mobile signal-caller by any means. The question lies in his upside over the course of a full season. Grunkemeyer could end up being a top-three quarterback in the ACC, or the eighth-best. The answer, probably, is somewhere in the middle.

James Franklin

The Hokies’ new coach has had a puzzling career. On one hand, Franklin revitalized Vanderbilt and Penn State — SEC and Big Ten programs who face incredibly difficult competition. On the other hand, Franklin went 16-36 against ranked opponents. Franklin’s teams went just 4-16 against Penn State’s biggest rivals, Ohio State and Michigan.

To Franklin’s credit, he did lead the Nittany Lions to a College Football Playoff berth in 2024. Penn State ran all the way to the semifinal (Orange Bowl), where it lost by a field goal to Notre Dame. James Franklin is a good coach. To call him otherwise would be blatant disrespect to a leader who has set a standard of success for a Big Ten stalwart.

However, is Franklin a great coach? The answer is unclear, but the answer is definitively more towards the “no” side of the spectrum. In his 12 seasons at Penn State, the Nittany Lions finished first in their division or conference just once. Franklin also owns a 4-21 record against top-10 teams. That mark is the third-worst of all time by any coach to face at least 25 teams ranked top-10.

In a mocking manner, media and fans have adorned Franklin with the nickname “Big Game James,” referring to his poor track record against more difficult opponents.

Virginia will not be an easy opponent for the Hokies. It is a rivalry matchup. Franklin — and his entire program, for that matter — will have to prove that he is capable of elevating Virginia Tech back to its former status as a college football titan.

Expectations for Franklin are high. And given his history at Vanderbilt and Penn State, a solid floor can be expected. But he is tasked with turning a 3-9 football team into a 10-2 ACC contender. That is no easy task. It may take Franklin a few seasons to do so. He has performed extremely well on the recruiting trail, but recruits mean nothing until they turn into stars on a collegiate field.

Coach Tony Elliott's Cavaliers have seldom been better positioned to steal a win at Lane Stadium. They will need to, as facing Virginia Tech should only get more difficult as Franklin builds his program. For 2026, though, Virginia has momentum, continuity and experience that the Hokies severely lack.

The Commonwealth Clash always carries extra meaning. This time, it will be a high-stakes litmus test for the direction of both programs — particularly for the Hokies.

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