Was Virginia Tech's Ranking Relative to the AP Top-25 Fair?

Virginia Tech landed outside the AP Top 25 at No. 37. Was that ranking fair, or should the Hokies have received more preseason respect?

Virginia Tech Athletics

BLACKSBURG, Va. — For a Virginia Tech team that went 3-9 a season ago and endured its worst mark by winning percentage since the 1992 campaign, I believe that any ranking entertaining a top-40 ranking is success by osmosis of the jump in rankings.

The Hokies did not make the AP top-25, though they were on the outskirts. Virginia Tech received six points off two votes — one 22nd-place finish projection and one 24th-place finish projection — that vaulted it to a de-facto No. 37 preseason spot.

For what it's worth, I think the degree of difficulty for Virginia Tech's schedule could create any scenario in which they go 6-6 to 9-3. There appear to be enough favorable games for the Hokies — especially in the first half of the season — to reach bowl-eligible status this year and perhaps aim for the eight- or nine-win echelon if it stacks up well against the rest of the ACC.

A plethora of things are unknown right now. Penn State import Ethan Grunkemeyer appears to offer a higher ceiling under quarterback after logging 1,339 passing yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions with the Nittany Lions last season. But given that he's started seven games in his collegiate career thus far, how does that translate to a new setting?

Grunkemeyer's arrival gives Virginia Tech a chance to make a significant jump offensively, but that jump cannot simply be assumed. He is stepping into a new offense, working with a new group of receivers and taking on a much larger role than he had for Penn State. If he plays at the level Virginia Tech believes he can, the Hokies' ceiling rises considerably. If he struggles to adjust, the margin for error becomes much smaller.

Virginia Tech presumably has more weapons to work with, as well. At running back, the Hokies return their 1-2 punch in Marcellous Hawkins (749 yards) and Jeffrey Overton Jr. (146 yards in final four games of the 2025 season), and they'll have Overton available for the full season after he missed the first eight games of 2025 recovering from a torn ACL. At wideout, Virginia Tech also has a 1-2 punch in Ayden Greene (516 yards, three TDs at Virginia Tech last season) and Que'Sean Brown (846 yards, five TDs at Duke last season). There's also tight end Luke Reynolds, who totaled 368 receiving yards and 35 catches across two seasons at Penn State.

On the defensive side of the ball, Virginia Tech's main returnee is Kemari Copeland, the Hokies' lone nod to the Preseason All-ACC Team in late July. Copeland totaled 48 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and a team-high 4.5 sacks in the 2025 season.

There is enough returning production, enough incoming talent and enough favorable scheduling to make a significant improvement from last year's three-win campaign realistic. But there are also enough unanswered questions — particularly at quarterback and in the secondary — to make a preseason top-25 ranking difficult to justify.

But, as always, it's worth exercising caution when considering the unknowns. Virginia Tech may have a higher ceiling under quarterback. How much? The Hokies have some toys to play with on their pass-catching corps. Do they get involved enough and does the run-pass split lend itself to a solid balance? And does Virginia Tech's defense have someone that can step up, particularly on the secondary?

For what it's worth, I think Virginia Tech's ranking is fair. It's in the ballpark of where other outlets have had it; Athlon Sports ranked the Hokies No. 30 in their preseason rankings, while the annual coaches' poll started Virginia Tech off at No. 41. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has the Hokies at No. 33 entering the season; it favors the Hokies in nine of their 12 games, though adding up the cumulative win percentages leads to a 7-5 record.