How Can WVU’s Win Probability vs. Kansas Be This Low? The Numbers Don’t Add Up

West Virginia will hop on an airplane for the first time this season as it will begin Big 12 Conference play against the rested Kansas Jayhawks.

The Mountaineers showed they are capable of being a dynamic offense with what they did in the fourth quarter and overtime against Pitt. Can they do it for a full game?

What the ESPN FPI says

Sep 6, 2025; Columbia, Missouri, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels (6) rolls out to pass during the second half against the Missouri Tigers at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images | Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

According to the ESPN Power Football Index (FPI), the Mountaineers have just a 19.4% chance to win this game, while Kansas has an 80.6% chance to improve to 3-1 and pick up its third-ever win over West Virginia.

Kansas does have the advantage, thanks to resting up on a bye week, while West Virginia just participated in a dogfight with its bitter rival, a game that went to overtime. Last time out, Kansas lost to its archrival, Missouri, 42-31, despite scoring 21 first quarter points.

When you look at these two teams on paper, it's hard to understand why the Jayhawks are such a heavy favorite. West Virginia's offensive line has allowed 29 pressures, while Kansas' has allowed 23. Kansas is 123rd in 3rd down conversions, West Virginia is 124th. Kansas had big issues on the ground a week ago, and will face a stingy Mountaineer run defense. I understand having the edge because of the situation, but it's hard to justify Kansas being the clear favorite here.

Change in analytics since initially released

West Virginia University tight end Grayson Barnes celebrates the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter with teammates Jacob Barrick (81) and Jeff Weimer (16) | Christopher Hall – West Virginia on SI

Not much change here, surprisingly. Before the season began, the Mountaineers had a 19.9% chance to win this game, so basically, nothing new with only a 0.4% drop in win probability. If I had to put a preseason percentage on WVU's chances, I would have said 45%. After taking in the first three games of the season, I'd actually move this to 50%. I'm being honest when I say I saw nothing special from Kansas in that loss to Missouri, who has been their only meaningful opponent. Perhaps I'm completely misreading this game, but I see it as a coin toss.

The Mountaineers and Jayhawks will kick things off at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday. You'll be able to watch the game live on FS1.

What the ESPN FPI says

Change in analytics since initially released

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