Boston Red Sox Given Shocking Record Projection In Latest 2025 Forecast

According to the latest PECOTA model from Baseball Prospectus, the Boston Red Sox are projected to finish last in the American League East in 2025.

Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora talks on the set of the MLB Network at Hilton Anatole in 2024. | Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

According to Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA model, the Boston Red Sox are projected to finish last in the American League East in 2025.

The Sox went 81-81 last season and are projected to win just 77.6 games this year.

baseball prospectus turned on their 2025 data today pic.twitter.com/lgpsTCxf7u

— Red Sox Stats (@redsoxstats) February 3, 2025

Every team enters a season with questions and there are always certain things that can take a season off the tracks, but this projection feels exceedlingly low for Boston.

Consider this: They won those 81 games last year with Triston Casas missing nearly 100 games and Trevor Story missing nearly the entire season. Garrett Whitlock also missed nearly the entire season and Lucas Giolito did. Furthermore, the Red Sox played last year with young players all over the diamond (David Hamilton, Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu).

Heading into this year, the Red Sox will get Casas, Story, Giolito and Whitlock back healthy. They've also added Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler to the rotation while only substituting Nick Pivetta. The bullpen is at least a wash with Justin Wilson, Liam Hendricks and Aroldis Chapman filling in for Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen.

Finally, those young players are all a year older and more experienced, and Vaughn Grissom will be in the mix and healthy. The Red Sox also have three Top 20 prospects in Marcelo Mayer, Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony who could be ready to contribute early on.

They have more depth than they've had in the past and can trot out at least eight capable starting pitchers if they need to.

The Red Sox feel closer to a division title winner than a cellar dweller, but we'll have to see what happens as the season unfolds.

Spring training begins in just over one week.

Related MLB Stories

FAY VINCENT PASSES AWAY: The former Commissioner of Baseball died at the age of 86. Here's what current Commissioner Rob Manfred had to say. CLICK HERE:

FREEMAN SLOW TO BUILD UP: Freddie Freeman, who helped the Dodgers win the World Series in 2024, won't be ready for Cactus League games when they begin later this month. CLICK HERE:

ANOTHER CHANCE: Former No. 3 overall pick Ian Anderson appears ready to get another shot in the Braves starting rotation. CLICK HERE:

Follow Fastball on FanNation on social media

Continue to follow our Fastball on FanNation coverage on social media by liking us on Facebook and by following us on Twitter @FastballFN.