Cubs’ Bold Alex Bregman Signing Changes a Nagging Narrative

The third baseman's five-year, $175 million contract proves Chicago is willing to spend—even if there are some warning signs about Bregman’s future.

Alex Bregman ends his Red Sox tenure with only 114 games played for Boston. / John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

This is why we let the offseason play out. The Chicago Cubs, criticized for dragging their feet and treating the first luxury tax threshold like a stop sign, in the past five days traded for righthander Edward Cabrera, a high-ceiling starter with three years of control, and signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a $175 million, five-year contract that puts them over the first threshold.

MORE: Edward Cabrera Trade Grades: Cubs Take Worthwhile Risk in Deal With Marlins

Carrying a payroll north of $244 million should not be news for a big market team like the Cubs. They paid the tax in 2023 and ’24 but dipped below the threshold to reset their tax rate, a common tactic to avoid the higher tax level associated with three straight payment years.

The Bregman signing is especially bold because of the cost at Bregman’s age. They will pay him $35 million a year for his age 32–36 seasons. The AAV is the second highest ever for a third baseman, tied with Anthony Rendon and behind only the $40 million the Red Sox gave Bregman last year under a contract that allowed him to opt out and get the long-term deal he wanted all along (and the one he did not want from Detroit then).

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It’s a bet that Bregman will age well after he missed 65 games the past two years and hit .180 for the Red Sox in his final 31 games. His statistical comps are Rendon, Eric Chavez and Kris Bryant, third basemen who did not hold up well.

But Bregman gives the Cubs many reasons to have confidence his aging curve will be worth it. He puts the ball in play, controls the strike zone, plays superior defense and is a dedicated grinder who takes a leadership role. When you have an All-Star who is also a glue guy, you have a special player. 

Bregman has never had a down season. In 10 major league seasons his OPS+ has never been worse than 113. He has played 102 postseason games.

His offensive numbers are likely to take a slight hit after playing his home games in Houston and Boston, two parks that serve his pull power well. But the overall package makes for a major win for the Cubs, who are putting together a Blue Jays-style, rally-type lineup. They had the sixth lowest strikeout rate last year. Chicago could consider trading Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw for pitching, but that would be a mistake. I’d rather keep the depth.

As for the Red Sox, Bregman had been a perfect fit there. He will be missed greatly. The best pivot for Boston would be to sign Bo Bichette, who is four years younger than Bregman.

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