Chicago Cubs Have More Than Enough Starting Pitching Options for 2023

According to multiple reports Sunday, the Chicago Cubs are nearing a deal with free agent Drew Smyly, to return the left-handed pitcher to the club for the 2023 Major League Baseball season.

Even without Smyly, the Cubs have a surplus of starting pitching options, but no true ace.

Veteran Kyle Hendricks has been the club's Opening Day starting pitcher the last three seasons, but has had a cumulative 4.78 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over the last two. Hendricks' 2022 season ended abruptly, as the the 33-year-old required season-ending shoulder surgery after sustaining a capsular tear on his pitching arm. Hendricks hopes to shake his 2021 and 2022 struggles next season, after fully recovering from surgery and hopefully coming back 100% healthy. Hendricks has pitched like an ace in the past. His 2.13 ERA was the lowest in the National League in 2016, as he finished third in NL Cy Young voting.

Either Hendricks or Marcus Stroman will likely be the Cubs' Opening Day starter next March. The Cubs signed Stroman to a three-year, $71 million contract last December.

Assuming Hendricks is ready to go by Opening Day, both he and Stroman, as well as newly-signed Jameson Taillon are virtual locks for the rotation. The Cubs would not have signed Taillon to a four-year, $68 million deal if they didn't have plans for him to start. Taillon, who has a cumulative 100 ERA+ since the start of 2019, has been a league-average pitcher in that time, but Jed Hoyer's front office must believe there is another level that Taillon can reach.

Hendricks, Taillon and Stroman are all pitch-to-contact arms. None of the three will blow past opposing hitters with high-velocity.

Factor in Smyly, who appears to be close to re-signing with the Cubs: unless the Cubs plan to move Smyly to a long-relief role, Chicago will commit four spots in their pitching rotation to veteran pitchers, Smyly included. Unless the Cubs plan to use a six-man rotation, that leaves just one spot starting pitching spot up for grabs.

The Cubs got a lot out of unproven arms in 2022. Youngsters Justin Steele (3.18 ERA), Hayden Wesneski (2.18), Keegan Thompson (3.76) and Javier Assad (3.11), as well as journeyman Adrian Sampson (3.11) all shined a season ago. The Cubs have more than enough options for the final spot in their rotation, which makes the organization's decisions to re-sign Smyly and bring in Taillon, somewhat confusing.

The Cubs really didn't have a problem filling out the back-end of their rotation in 2022, so personally, I am surprised that the club is adding and retaining more back-end of the rotation options at this time. Wesneski, Steele and Thompson all showed great promise in 2022, and each made a strong argument for a spot in the rotation in 2023, through their performance.

By adding Taillon and bringing back Smyly, the Cubs could block the development of some of their most promising arms. Realistically, the Cubs, coming off a 74-win season, will not contend for a World Series in 2023. If I were in the front office, I would prefer to use 2023 as a chance to develop and evaluate the club's young pitchers, so that I could determine which players will be a part of the Cubs' long-term plans, instead of filling out my rotation with veteran arms. The Houston Astros have built a juggernaut primarily through player development, and giving opportunities to homegrown players such as Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jeremy Pena to take on key roles, instead of signing veteran free agents to plug holes. Wesneski has a chance to be something special, if he is given an opportunity to pitch every fifth day, something he might not have. If he does indeed receive the fifth spot in the rotation, it would come at the expense of Steele and Thompson taking bullpen roles. The Cubs also have promising young pitcher Caleb Kilian in Triple-A.

As of Dec. 19, here's a look at nine potential starting pitchers the Cubs can choose from to fill out their pitching rotation in 2023, including 2022 statistics:

1) Kyle Hendricks: 4-6, 16 starts, 84.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.75 SO/W, 86 ERA+

2) Marcus Stroman: 6-7, 25 starts, 138.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.31 SO/W, 117 ERA+

3) Jameson Taillon: 14-5, 32 starts, 177.1 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 4.72 SO/W, 100 ERA+

4) Drew Smyly: 7-12, 22 starts, 106.1 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.50 SO/W, 118 ERA+

5) Justin Steele: 4-7, 24 starts, 119 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.52 SO/W, 129 ERA+

6) Hayden Wesneski: 3-2, 4 starts, 33 IP, 2.18 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 4.71 SO/W, 190 ERA+

7) Adrian Sampson: 4-5, 19 starts, 104.1 IP, 3.11 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.70 SO/W, 132 ERA+

8) Keegan Thompson: 10-5, 17 starts, 115 IP, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.51 SO/W, 109 ERA+

9) Javier Assad: 2-2, 8 starts, 37.2 IP, 3.11 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 1.50 SO/W, 133 ERA+

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