OPINION: Carlos Correa's $350 Million Contract Will Not Age Well

The San Francisco Giants made a gigantic splash earlier this week, agreeing to terms on a 13-year, $350 million contract with free agent shortstop Carlos Correa. Correa played his first eight seasons with the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins. Correa's contract will not age well, however, Jack Vita writes.

Earlier this week, the San Francisco Giants gave shortstop Carlos Correa a 13-year, $350 million contract. Correa will be 41 years-old when his deal runs up.

After failing to sign Aaron Judge, the Giants pivoted and made a big splash, agreeing to terms with Correa.

I don't believe Correa's contract will age well, however.

Correa, when healthy, is a very special player. Durability has been a concern for him, though. Since making his big league debut in 2015, Correa has spent eight seasons in the big leagues. In only three of them has he played 111 games or more. Of course, one of those seasons was shortened to 60 games thanks to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in 2020. Another year was his debut season, in which he didn't receive a call-up until midway through the year. Still, though, the Giants are committing a hefty sum to a player with an injury-riddled past.

Correa's contract is the second-largest in baseball history, behind Aaron Judge. Contracts will continue to inflate in the future, but Correa is still going to be paid like an MVP. In his eight big league seasons, Correa has finished top-15 in American League MVP voting just once: in 2021, when he finished fifth.

In other words, in eight big league seasons, Correa has essentially been a top-15 American League player just once. He's been an American League All-Star twice. And yet, Cubs fans seem to think the club just missed out on the opportunity to acquire Alex Rodriguez in his prime. Correa is not A-Rod.

Correa will be 41 by the time his deal concludes. Regression is sure to come. No club expects a player to perform at an elite level for all 10-plus years of his long-term contract. In most cases, the expectation is that the player will play at an elite level for the first part of his deal, remain a productive player for the middle part of the deal, and the club will eat a significant chunk at the back-end of the contract. It's a price clubs are willing to pay for the returns they'll receive in the first part of the deal.

In order to make Correa's deal worthwhile, the Giants need to contend immediately. The club won a franchise-record 107 games in 2021, but regressed significantly in 2022, finishing at 81-81. By making the move for Correa, Gabe Kapler's made a statement that the club means business. But by how many wins will the Giants improve by in 2023?

The Giants should go all-in, now. I would be surprised if the Correa signing is the club's final major move of the offseason.

For more from Jack Vita, follow him on Twitter @JackVitaShow, and subscribe to his podcast, the Jack Vita Show, available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, Facebook, Amazon, iHeartRadio, and wherever podcasts are found.