Jeff Passan Expects Truly Absurd Tarik Skubal Deal in Free Agency

The Los Angeles Dodgers ace will be a free agent this winter and can transform the market.

Sep 8, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) delivers to the plate in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

When the 2026 Major League Baseball season comes to an end, the biggest thing to watch — before a potential lockout — is going to be Los Angeles Dodgers ace Tarik Skubal.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner is heading to free agency and he could have some serious cash coming his way. Over the last few years, there has been at least one mega free agent in each class. Guys like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and even Kyle Tucker have truly broken the bank. Two of those three happened to land with the Dodgers as well. Ohtani got the ball moving with a 10-year, $700 million deal with heavy deferrals. Soto followed with a 15-year, $765 million deal from the New York Mets. When Ohtani got his deal, it was shocking. But this is a guy who is the best hitter on whatever team he's on. Plus, when he's healthy, he's a legit No. 1 ace.

Tucker got a four-year, $240 million deal from the Dodgers that hasn't gone as planned so far. Over the last few years, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also got a 14-year, $500 million deal from the Toronto Blue Jays, although he wasn't a free agent. It was an extension. The Dodgers also handed out the largest deal to a pitcher in big league history, to this point, by inking Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million deal ahead of the 2024 season. The last few years have featured some truly wild deals.

This winter, the guy to watch is Skubal. When he's at his best, he is truly dominant. He won the American League Cy Young Award in 2024 and 2025 and led the American League in WAR, ERA, and ERA+ both years. Plus, he led the league in strikeouts in 2024. Skubal hasn't finished a season with an ERA above 2.80 since 2022. Plus, he has a career 3.04 ERA in seven seasons. He is among the elite of the elite. But how much should he get in free agency? Skubal is 29 years old and had elbow surgery earlier in the season. He's back pitching and has looked good. He has a 2.93 ERA in seven starts for the Dodgers.

On Thursday, ESPN's Jeff Passan shared a column with early intel on free agency and one thing that he wrote that stood out was the fact that he said that if there's no salary cap, someone may be willing to pay Skubal double the $245 million deal Stephen Strasburg got from the Washington Nationals.

Wouldn't That Be Something?

Sep 8, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal (29) delivers to the plate in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

"The number will be huge. Bear in mind that Skubal turns 30 in November and never before has a pitcher age 30 or older received more than Stephen Strasburg's $245 million (on a seven-year deal) in free agency," Passan wrote. "Provided there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that. A deal of that magnitude would presumably be for at least a decade -- the sort of commitment teams might balk at because of his age. But someone is going to pay an exorbitant amount for his services. And he is going to be at the heart of the salary cap debate all the while, because barely a handful of teams are interested in paying $50 million a year for 33 starts."

This is the most respected insider in baseball saying there's a chance that Skubal could land a contract that starts above $400 million.

Arguably, that would be an absurd price for any team to pay. The market is the market. There's a real chance that someone talks themselves into making a crazy deal. Think back to the Soto deal, for example. A bidding war took place between the Mets, New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox and ultimately the price climbed and climbed.

When it comes to Skubal, though, a price tag that high would be absurd for a pitcher about to turn 30 years old and who just had elbow surgery, even if he is okay now. There's always a fear with pitchers and elbow issues. Right now, the largest contract given to a pitcher in total value was Yamamoto at $325 million, and that was before the 2024 season. The righty just turned 28 years old on Aug. 17. He got the big-money deal at 25 years old, not while pushing 30 years old.

Skubal is great and he can give a team a chance to win every fifth night. But what about the other four games? Over $400 million could be spread out on an ace plus a few other impactful players. If the price does climb that high, it would be absurd.