Mets' Tarik Skubal Decision Will Shape Their Entire Offseason

The New York Mets are playing out the string of a lost season, seeking answers to important questions for the 2027 campaign. How to fill out the starting rotation is one of the big ones, especially when it comes to figuring out who can top the group.

David Stearns opted not to push Nolan McLean to be an ace in his first full season, acquiring Freddy Peralta instead from Milwaukee in a trade. Peralta didn't work out and was shipped to Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, leaving McLean as the ace to finish the year.

McLean has handled that responsibility well, making it possible for the Mets to go into 2027 with him as their No. 1 starter or sign a co-ace to work with him at the top. That strategy would be perfectly defensible, but there is an intriguing possibility for the Mets to boost their rotation with just money: signing Tarik Skubal in free agency.

The reigning two-time AL Cy Young winner is trying to help the Los Angeles Dodgers secure a three-peat after getting shipped there at the deadline, an important distinction since it means Los Angeles can't use a qualifying offer on him. The cost of signing Skubal would be entirely financial, in terms of his contract and the penalties associated with luxury tax overages that come from it.

Weighing the potential of a Tarik Skubal fit with the Mets

There is obviously an age-related risk with Skubal, who turns 30 years old in November and missed time this season after having his elbow scoped in May. Skubal is also represented by Scott Boras, who will likely want to see Skubal secure the largest free-agent pitching contract in history, which is currently Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million deal.

Yamamoto's contract pays him an average of just over $27 million per season and includes an opt-out after the fifth year of the deal. Skubal had a superior resume than Yamamoto when he hit the market, but Yamamoto was only 25 when he signed his deal, thereby ensuring his new team would get more of his prime years.

There have been rumblings that Boras may want to move quickly to get Skubal signed before a potential work stoppage, which could play in the Mets' favor. There are rumors swirling about the impact that a government investigation into Dodgers' owner Mark Walter's finances could have on Los Angeles' interest in retaining Skubal, which could build a full rotation for next season without him or Shohei Ohtani anyway.

The Mets don't have a lot of long-term deals on their books, with only Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto under contract beyond the 2028 season. Most of the Mets' guaranteed deals come off the books after next season, when Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga, and Jorge Polanco's combined $57 million is erased from the team's payroll.

Another $42 million could drop off after 2027 if Bo Bichette opts out of the final year of his deal while Marcus Semien, Devin Williams and Luis Torrens all have one guaranteed year left on their deals for 2028. There is a conceivable path for the Mets to both add Skubal and get under the luxury tax threshold as soon as 2028, which could reset their tax rates ahead of targeted free agent splurges in future years.

The holdup here could be whether Stearns budges on his general distaste for giving older pitchers longer-term deals. Stearns offered the same contract structure to Yamamoto that the Dodgers did. But the deal included an opt-out to potentially allow them to get out of the contract after five great years with Yamamoto.

Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal throws a pitch against the Pittsburgh Pirates. — Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Tarik Skubal could be a feasible option for the New York Mets this offseason. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It is possible the Mets try to blow out the AAV for Skubal to minimize their commitment in terms of years, which could see them offer him in the neighborhood of $45 million per season for 5 years, topping the $43.3 million per year Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander got from the Mets on two-year deals.

Such a deal would allow Boras to pick up a win by saying Skubal is the highest-paid pitcher on an annual basis, while ensuring the Mets get the remainder of Skubal's prime. Even a six-year deal at that figure would only run through Skubal's age-35 season, which the Mets could absorb with all of the money coming off their books in addition to a slew of cheaper young talent filling out the roster.

There is always injury risk with a pitcher's deal, but the Mets have been paying a premium for the middle of the market, overpaying on shorter deals for the likes of Frankie Montas, Manaea, and Clay Holmes in recent years. Holmes was the only one of those deals that remotely paid off for the Mets, so it makes sense to try pivoting to a bigger outlay on a top-end pitcher.

Getting Skubal would allow the Mets to make McLean one of the game's best No. 2 starters and add another starter who can fill the No. 3 spot before Christian Scott. That kind of rotation would allow the Mets to rival the Philadelphia Phillies for the best in the NL East. It would also let them build out their depth with Zac Thornton and Jonah Tong as fill-ins, and not as rotation mainstays.

There would also be a significant PR win for the franchise to sign the best pitcher on the market, especially after an offseason, where Stearns took a lot of heat for letting several fan favorites walk out the door. The pros of adding Skubal outweigh the cons, so the Mets should make a strong play for the star lefty when he hits free agency this winter.

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