Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Astros-Phillies, Jacob Misiorowski, Rays-Braves, More)

All 30 teams in MLB are back in action on Tuesday night, and there are a ton of potential playoff implications as several new series begin.

So, I’ve found five different games that I’m willing to bet on – including several including teams in the playoffs or just outside of a postseason spot – on Sept. 8.

One of those games is a battle between two first-place teams in the Tampa Bay Rays and Atlanta Braves, who both have four-game leads in their respective division races. However, the teams chasing them (the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies) have been red hot and could put the pressure on these division leaders over the final few weeks.

In addition to that game, I’m eyeing Milwaukee Brewers ace and NL Cy Young favorite Jacob Misiorowski in a battle with the Chicago Cubs – his third matchup against them this season. Could the star right-hander actually be a fade candidate tonight?

There’s a ton to examine in this five-pick edition of Walk-Off Wagers, complete with the latest odds from the best betting sites.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 8

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Houston Astros-Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-103) vs. Atlanta Braves
Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-149)
Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-187) vs. Athletics
Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres OVER 8 (-105)

Houston Astros-Philadelphia Phillies First 5 Innings UNDER 4.5 (-115)

The Houston Astros have a two-game lead in the AL West heading into Tuesday’s series opener with the Philadelphia Phillies, which features two young right-handers on the mound.

Andrew Painter (5.55 ERA) gets the ball for the Phils against Houston’s Hayden Wesneski (3.18 ERA), who is making just his eighth appearance of the season. The Astros are 6-1 in Wesneski’s starts, but I’m looking to bet on the total early on in this game.

Painter got off to a rough start in his rookie season for the Phils, leading to the team sending him down to Triple-A. Since returning to the rotation, he’s been lights out, including a seven-inning, two-hit, no-run showing in his last outing against Arizona.

The young righty has a 3.12 ERA in seven starts since being recalled on July 31, allowing three or fewer runs in six of those outings. Painter also has some intriguing advanced metrics, ranking in the 73rd percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 81st percentile in chase percentage.

Meanwhile, Wesneski has allowed three or fewer runs in six of his seven starts in 2026, posting a one-hit, seven-inning gem in his last start against the Chicago White Sox. He’s lowered his expected ERA to 3.81 this season over his last few outings.

While the Phillies have a lot of sluggers on their team, they rank 28th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), 16th in runs scored and 19th in OPS this season.

I’m going to buy both of these young starters in this series opener, especially with the first five innings total all the way up at 4.5.

Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline (-103) vs. Atlanta Braves

Are the Tampa Bay Rays undervalued on the road on Tuesday?

The Rays are -103 underdogs against the Atlanta Braves, who are starting youngster A.J. Smith-Shawver (7.13 ERA) for the fifth time this season. Smith-Shawver has really struggled since returning from injury, allowing 20 hits, 14 earned runs and 11 walks in just 17.2 innings of work.

On top of that, the Braves are just 1-3 in his four outings.

He’ll take on veteran Freddy Peralta, who has struggled for the most part in the 2026 season. A former All-Star, Peralta was dealt from the New York Mets to the Rays at the deadline, and he’s pitched slightly better since, including a six-inning, one-run, three-hit gem against his former team his last time out.

In six starts with the Rays, Peralta has led the team to a 4-2 record while posting a 4.86 ERA. He’s allowed just five hits and one run over 12.0 innings in his last two outings, and I think he is the starter to back in this matchup.

Atlanta is coming off a loss to Philly on Monday, and it may struggle against a Rays team that has proven to be one of the best in baseball in 2026.

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-149)

It’s very rare that I’d even consider fading Milwaukee Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, but I think his strikeout prop is a little inflated on Tuesday night against the Chicago Cubs.

The NL Cy Young favorite has 227 strikeouts in 155 innings of work this season, but he was limited to just four innings and five K’s in his start against Chicago earlier this month. The Cubbies are one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking No. 1 in wRC+, No. 1 in runs scored, No. 1 in OPS and No. 6 in batting average in 2026.

They’ve also finished with less than nine K’s in both of their games against Misiorowski, even though the Brewers ace ranks in the 100th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 99th percentile in whiff percentage.

This season, Misiorowski has fallen short of nine K’s 13 times in 26 starts, including four starts in a row with six or fewer K’s. I’ll fade him against a Cubs team that averages just 8.43 strikeouts per game in the 2026 season.

Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (-187) vs. Athletics

The Toronto Blue Jays shockingly lost a start by Dylan Cease on Monday against the Athletics, and they need a bounce-back showing on Tuesday if they want to keep themselves alive in the AL wild card race.

Toronto is just one game back of the Cleveland Guardians for the third and final wild card spot, and it has to take advantage of facing one of the worst teams in the American League in this series.

The Athletics had one of their better pitchers (Jacob Lopez) on the mound on Monday, but they’ll turn to Jack Perkins (6.50 ERA) tonight. Perkins has worked as both a starter and a reliever this season, posting an expected ERA of 4.03 while ranking in the 66th percentile in expected batting average against.

He’ll take on Jose Soriano, who was acquired by the Jays from the Los Angeles Angels at the trade deadline. Soriano has a 4.36 ERA and a 3.88 FIP in six starts with the Jays, leading them to a 5-1 record in those outings.

The right-hander has allowed three or fewer runs in five of those starts.

While Toronto’s offense has been shaky all season long, this Athletics team has lost multiple top hitters for the year – including All-Star Nick Kurtz – and is just 26-44 at home. I’m going to buy a Blue Jays bounce back on Tuesday, especially with this moneyline price falling short of -200.

Washington Nationals-San Diego Padres OVER 8 (-105)

The San Diego Padres took Monday’s series opener against the Washington Nationals, keeping themselves within a half game of the final wild card spot in the National League.

Now, they’re favored on Tuesday with trade-deadline addition Casey Mize on the mound.

Washington is going with a bullpen game, led by Riley Cornello, who has a 5.96 ERA in 2026. The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in the league, posting a 5.06 ERA overall (29th) while allowing 100 home runs and 654 hits – which both are the most in MLB.

Still, I’m not sold on taking San Diego to win outright, especially with the current moneyline price.

Instead, I’m eyeing the OVER.

The OVER has hit in 54.4 percent of Washington’s games this season, and the Nationals’ offense has impressed for most of the season, ranking fourth in the league in wRC+.

Mize has been far from lights out in a Padres uniform, allowing four or more runs in four of his outings, posting a 6.67 ERA. There’s a real chance that both offenses explode in the early innings, and I don’t trust the Washington bullpen to slow down San Diego for an entire game.

With this total sitting at just eight, there’s a little extra cushion since this could push as well on Tuesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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