UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales full card picks & predictions

Check out predictions for every fight on this Saturday's UFC card.

Drew Beaupre | May 17, 2025

Jason da Silva-Imagn Images

The UFC returns to the UFC APEX facility this weekend, MMA KO’s Drew Beaupré is here to provide predictions for the entire 12-fight card.

The event is headlined by former welterweight title challenger Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales, who has added five wins to his undefeated record since joining the UFC off of Dana White’s Contender Series.

The co-main event is a light heavyweight matchup between Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato, which will see Craig try to snap a three-fight skid when he squares off with the hard-hitting Brazilian.

Jack Della Maddalena (blue gloves) fights Gilbert Burns (red gloves) during UFC 299 at Kayesa Center. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

UFC Fight Night Main Predictions

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales

Michael Morales (red gloves) celebrates after defeating Adam Fugitt (not pictured) in a welterweight bout. / Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

The betting value for this fight is quite clearly on Burns based on his experience and how incredibly lopsided the current odds are, but in terms of an outright pick Morales has both youth and momentum on his side as the Ecuadorian looks to hand “Durinho” his fourth-straight loss.

(Pick: Morales)

Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato

Rodolfo Bellato (red gloves) fights Ihor Potiereia (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Moody Center. / Dustin Safranek-Imagn Images

Craig has all the skills necessary to score an upset here if he’s able to bring this fight to the ground, but if he isn’t able to do that then he’ll likely be outmatched on the feet against a dangerous finisher in Bellato.

(Pick: Bellato)

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos

Sodiq Yusuff moves in with a hit against Andre Fili during UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena. / Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

I’m a bit surprised to see Yusuff as a slight underdog here given the level of competition he’s faced, and this matchup looks like a good opportunity for “Super” to bounce back from his current two-fight skid.

(Pick: Yusuff)

Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Nursulton Ruziboev (red gloves) celebrates defeating Eric McConico (blue gloves) in the middleweight bout. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

It seems unlikely that this fight will make it to the judges’ scorecards, and I expect that Stoltzfus’ recent trend of alternating wins and losses will continue against an extremely experienced opponent in Ruziboev.

(Pick: Ruziboev)

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa

Andre Fili (red gloves) fights Melquizael Costa (blue gloves) in a featherweight bout during UFC Fight Night at Climate Pledge Arena. / Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Both men enter this matchup on impressive three-fight winning streaks, and I’ll slightly lean with Costa to get his hand raised in what may be the most underrated matchup on this card.

(Pick: Costa)

UFC Fight Night Preliminary Card Predictions

Matheus Camilo vs. Gabe Green

Matheus Camilo makes his UFC debut this weekend. / (Instagram)

Green comes into this fight following back-to-back losses and a two-year layoff, and neither of those things bode well for “Gifted” as he takes on a talented young fighter that’s looking to make a splash in his UFC debut.

(Pick: Camilo)

Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises

Thiago Moises (red gloves) fights Melquizael Costa (blue gloves) during UFC 283 at Jeunesse Arena. / Jason da Silva-Imagn Images

This is another of the more underrated matchups on this fight card, and I’ll slightly lean with Moises to get the job done and score back-to-back wins after he also defeated Trey Ogden earlier this year.

(Pick: Moises)

Connor Matthews vs. Yadier DelValle

Yadier DelValle reacts after his victory against Antonio Monteiro on Dana White's Contender Series. / (Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC)

One of two fighters making their promotional debuts on Saturday, DelValle should be able to extend his undefeated record against Matthews and potentially bounce “The Controller” from the UFC with what would be a third-straight loss.

(Pick: DelValle)

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa

Luana Santos (red gloves) celebrates after defeating Mariya Agapova (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ball Arena. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Lisboa kicked off her UFC career with back-to-back wins before what has become a lengthy layoff, and this matchup with her countrywoman Santos is a difficult way to make her return to the Octagon.

(Pick: Santos)

Denise Gomes vs. Elise Reed

Denise Gomes (blue gloves) fights Angela Hill (red gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Ibirapuera Arena. / Jason da Silva-Imagn Images

Reed has failed to win two fights in a row since joining the UFC in 2021, and unfortunately for the American I expect that trend will continue when she enters the cage to face Gomes.

(Pick: Gomes)

Hyun Sung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez

Hyun Sung Park during his fight with Shannon Ross. / (Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

I’m a little surprised to see this fight buried so far down on the card’s prelims. Hernandez is certainly capable of playing spoiler here with Park returning from a long layoff due to a knee injury, but the South Korean should be able to extend his undefeated record in his return fight.

(Pick: Park)

Luana Pinheiro vs. Tecia Pennington

Tecia Pennington (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Carla Esparza (red gloves) during UFC 307 at Delta Center. / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

After finally getting back into the win column against Carla Esparza last year, Pennington has the chance to score back-to-back victories here with a favorable matchup against Pinheiro.

(Pick: Pennington)

MMA KO will be providing comprehensive coverage for UFC Vegas 106 all throughout fight week, and be sure to check back on our homepage for a preview of the event as well as live results and highlights on fight night.

More MMA Knockout News

Stick with MMAKnockout for more FREE coverage of the UFC, MMA, Boxing.

Follow MMAKnockout on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Published May 17, 2025

DREW BEAUPRE

Drew is an MMA writer that regularly watches regional events in addition to major promotions such as the UFC, PFL, Bellator, and ONE Championship. He joined MMA Knockout when it was founded in 2023.