UFC 293 Betting Guide: Odds & Predictions | Adesanya vs. Strickland
We're back for another betting guide, this time for Sydney's UFC 293. On paper there seem to be many fights that have a clear-cut outcome, and some others which should be avoided.
Before we start, let's recall our last performance at UFC 292.
What went right?
All but one of our prelim bets paid out nicely, with Natalia Silva and Gregory Rodrigues coming in hot. Weili Zhang also cashed in on the main card. Whilst we didn't bet on it, Brad Katona came through. The fights we also recommended avoiding were also totally unpredictable, so there's that.
What went wrong?
Our risky pick on Chris Weidman totally crashed. We also got stiffed by two razor thin decisions on the main card, with Da'Mon Blackshear and Pedro Munhoz losing decisions. Seriously, media members scored both fights in favour of our picks. Unlucky since we would have been up by a huge margin otherwise.
- Where we started: $10
Where we're at now: $10.80
Let's get into UFC 293...
Carlos Ulberg is here to shake up the light heavyweight division
UFC 293 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Undercard
Kiefer Crosbie (+136) vs. Kevin Jousset (-156)
Crosbie is very hittable and likes to walk into range without first setting up any offense, to make up for this he hits very hard and has some nice boxing combinations - though his cardio leaves a lot to be desired. Jousset's five-round experience should pay dividends if he can endure Crosbie's offense. I pick Jousset to win this one, but no bets will be placed.
Pick: Jousset
Shane Young (-136) vs. Gabriel Miranda (+116)
Young missed weight which could be bad for his cardio in this fight. Miranda is a straight grappler and will be looking for the takedown right away. Though dangerous, Young is easily muscled around the octagon, and he'll be three inches smaller than Miranda. I pick Miranda to control Young on the ground early, perhaps picking up a submission.
Pick: Miranda, Bet: Outright, DEC or SUB
Mike Mathetha (+260) vs. Charles Radtke (-310)
Skip this fight, there's nothing to be gained from Radtke being such a huge favorite. This is especially the case with Mathetha's kickboxing background giving him a chance of winning on the feet. I still think Radtke wins, but no bets will be placed.
Pick: Radtke
Nasrat Haqparast (-470) vs. Landon Quinones (+370)
Since Quinones didn't look so hot on TUF 31, I'd have to pick the UFC vet Haqparast to take this one on experience alone. However, the odds are so skewed you might as well leave it alone.
Pick: Haqparast
Jamie Mullarkey (-261) vs. John Makdessi (+221)
This is a difficult fight to call. Mullarkey, on paper, takes it with his lanky striking and evasive head movement, but he's super inconsistent and is coming off of a KO loss. Makdessi is shorter and lacks urgency, so I pick Mullarkey, probably as a risky bet too.
Pick: Mullarkey, Bet: Outright, TKO or DEC
Jack Jenkins (-202) vs. Jose Mariscal (+172)
Some may remember Mariscal from his competitive fight with Trevor Peek, which isn't great considering Peek is the antithesis of skill and technique. This should be Jenkins' fight, playing on the outside with low kicks and boxing. Jenkins is a safe pick.
Pick: Jenkins, Bet: Outright or Decision
Carlos Ulberg (-260) vs. Da Woon Jung (+220)
Here we arrive at what I consider to be the lock of the prelims. Ulberg has really come into his own, holding back on the aggression and honing his craft. "Black Jag" has a slick and powerful check left hook which has had his last three opponents on skates.
It doesn't bode well for Jung who keeps his right hand low and chin up in the air. He also enters firefights with this stance and it's just asking to be checked by Ulberg.
Pick: Ulberg, Bet: Outright or KO/TKO
Prelim picks: Jousset, Miranda, Radtke, Haqparast, Mullarkey, Jenkins, Ulberg
Prelim bets: Miranda, Mullarkey, Jenkins, Ulberg
Alexander Volkov looks to throw himself back into title contention
UFC 293 Odds, Predictions & Bets - Main Card
Tyson Pedro (-114) vs. Anton Turkalj (-106)
Pedro starts early and fast, but has shown some extremely questionable cardio. Whilst Turkalj is hittable, he's shown good endurance and cardio. If this fight exits the first round, I can see Turkalj pulling off the small upset.
Pick: Turkalj, Bet: Outright or DEC
Justin Tafa (-193) vs. Austen Lane (+168)
Just two unrefined heavyweights who can land a night's out shot at anytime. Since Lane has some juicy odds, it's worth putting a risky single on him getting the dub.
Pick: No pick, Bet: Lane Outright or KO/TKO for big odds
Manel Kape (-423) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+323)
dos Santos is making his UFC debut against a ranked flyweight (and former RIZIN champ), after a skid of cancellations on DWCS. He has that patented Chute Boxe aggression and abandons all defense in favor of offense.
On paper, Kape should put him out, and I absolutely favor Kape to win the fight, but the odds on dos Santos and the fact he's so dangerous is cause enough to put a risky single bet on him.
Pick: Kape, Bet: dos Santos Outright or Finish
Alexander Volkov (-250) vs. Tai Tuivasa (+210)
There's always a puncher's chance with Tuivasa, so be warned.
I go with Volkov on this one, his stature and stabbing teeps should exploit Tuivasa's weakness which is his body and durability. Volkov's length and range management should keep him out of range of Tuivasa's slugging style.
If Tuivasa wanted to win this fight, he'd wrestle or chop the legs with low kicks, but unfortunately, he doesn't have the wrestling credentials to do this, and Volkov is long enough to punish the low kicks with thudding straight shots.
Pick: Volkov, Bet: Outright or KO/TKO
Israel Adesanya (-650) vs. Sean Strickland (+475)
Skip this one. Whilst Adesanya is a lock for me, the immensely wide odds mean he doesn't contribute much to a parlay.
- Main card picks: Turkalj, Kape, Volkov, Adesanya
- Main card bets: Turkalj, Lane, dos Santos, Volkov
UFC 293 Best Bets & Parlays -
- Safe prelim single - Ulberg outright --- $10 to get $3.82
- Prelim single - Miranda by SUB --- $10 to get $19
- Prelim parlay - Jenkins, Ulberg --- $10 to get $10.70
- Risky prelim parlay - Miranda SUB, Ulberg ---$10 to get $44
- Safe single main - Volkov --- $10 to get $4
- Main single - Turkalj --- $10 to get $9.43
- Risky main single - dos Santos by KO/TKO R1 --- $10 to get $260
- Risky main single - Lane --- $10 to get $16.80
- Super risky money parlay - Lane, dos Santos --- $10 to get $103.36
Please gamble responsibly
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