20 Stats And Trends You Need To Know Ahead of Your Fantasy Football Drafts

Michael Fabiano | Jun 17, 2025

Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has been one of fantasy football's best wide receivers since his rookie year of 2020. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Stats. They can be deceiving, especially in the world of fantasy football.

Case in point … in 2022, Miles Sanders rushed for over 1,200 yards, scored 11 total touchdowns and was the RB15. Seems pretty good, right? Well, what if I told you that he scored fewer than 12 points in 10 of his 17 games (59%), and 41 percent of his points came in three games? Suddenly, Sanders isn’t looking so good … and that showed in 2023.

With that in mind, I dove into the numbers and picked out 20 nuggets you need to know before you draft your fantasy football teams in 2025. Some surround false perceptions of players, like Sanders in 2022, while others point out how coaching changes could affect future player outcomes. Still others discuss player personnel moves or historical trends and how those will positively or negatively affect how a player performs this season.

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Justin Jefferson

Justin Jefferson averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game, 19.4 points per game and 21.7 points per game in his first three NFL seasons with Kirk Cousins under center. In 2023, he averaged 21.8 points in the five games he played with Cousins. In the other four games he played that season, Jefferson averaged 18.6 points … the quarterbacks throwing him the ball in those games were backups like Joshua Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall.

In 2024, Jefferson averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game with another quarterback, Sam Darnold, under center. In his previous four seasons with at least 11 starts, Darnold’s best wide receiver from a fantasy perspective was DJ Moore, who averaged 14 points per game in 2021. What does this all mean for 2025 fantasy drafts? Jefferson has proven to be very quarterback proof, so don’t downgrade him with J.J. McCarthy taking over the offense.

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey has failed to play in more than seven games in three of his last five seasons, including 2024. In the previous two such seasons, McCaffrey averaged 30.1 points (2020) and 18.2 points (2021) per game. While it was only three-plus games, McCaffrey’s 12 point-per-game average last year was the worst of his career. He also averaged just four yards per carry last season, which was his lowest total since 2020. CMC will be healthy heading into 2025, but are his best fantasy days now behind him?

Josh Jacobs

In the first six weeks of last season, Josh Jacobs averaged 19.8 touches and 11.9 fantasy points (0.60 points per touch). During that time, the Packers were fourth in rush percentage (51.3). Over the final 12 weeks, Jacobs averaged the exact same number of touches per game (19.8) but saw his points-per-game average swell to 20.2. The Packers ran the ball 51.2 percent of the time during this stretch, so there was little difference in philosophies.

Jordan Love

In the first six weeks of last season, Jordan Love averaged 36.5 pass attempts and 21.5 points per game (he missed two games due to injury). During that time, the Packers were fourth to last in pass percentage (47.6). Over the final 12 weeks, Love averaged 25.4 pass attempts and 13.4 points per game. That’s a huge drop from his first four games.  However, the Packers didn’t see a notable decline in pass percentage, ranking third to last (48.8).

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts leads all quarterbacks in carries inside the five-yard line over the last three seasons, and a whopping 33 of his 42 rushing touchdowns have come from inside the five-yard line during that time. So, 198 of his 1,050 fantasy points over the last three years (nearly 20 percent) have come as a result of the controversial “Tush Push.” Last season, all but three of his 14 rushing touchdowns were from the one-yard line. The Tush Push will once again be allowed this season, so Hurts should remain an elite fantasy option.

Tyreek Hill

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Not only did Tyreek Hill have a bad fantasy year, but his advanced stats are worrisome too. His yards per catch average dropped from 15.1 to 11.8, and his receiving extra points added went from +81.3 down to +19.9 based on NextGen Stats. Hill was also less effective after the catch, recording just 306 such yards last season. That total was 690 yards in 2023. He also saw his target share drop from 37.8 to 24.1, which was due in part to the emergence of Jonnu Smith. He also experienced a drop of more than two full yards per route run in 2024. Those are scary stats, folks, so don’t expect him to return to his former elite status.

Seahawks Run Game

New Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the father of former NFL coach Gary Kubiak, led the Saints offensive attack a season ago. In his system, Alvin Kamara averaged 21.1 touches and nearly 19 fantasy points per game. Kubiak also served as the offensive coordinator for the Vikings in 2021, during which time Dalvin Cook averaged 21.8 touches and 15.9 fantasy points per game. That’s good news for Kenneth Walker III in 2025.

Speaking of Kenneth Walker III, he was on pace to have a breakout campaign in 2024, averaging 22.3 fantasy points in his first five games. Only Derrick Henry and Kamara averaged more points after the first seven weeks. Unfortunately, he missed both Weeks 2 and 3 with an oblique injury, played the next nine games and then missed four of the final five weeks with a bum ankle. That’s frustrating as a fantasy manager, even more so when his backup, Zach Charbonnet, tends to perform so well when Walker III is inactive.

The good news is that when he was healthy, Walker III didn’t lose significant touches to his teammate. In fact, he averaged 18.1 touches and 16.5 fantasy points in the 11 games he played. In those games, Charbonnet averaged right around five touches in the offense. So, Walker III has remained more or less a true featured runner during his first three seasons.

Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon was a fantasy football superstar in the first 11 weeks of last season, as he averaged a league-best 22.6 points per game. During that time, he averaged more than 100 scrimmage yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. He fell apart down the stretch, though, failing to score more than 10.6 fantasy points over his final four games. With the addition of Nick Chubb and the selection of Woody Marks in the NFL Draft, Mixon’s stock has fallen.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Marvin Harrison Jr. had a disappointing rookie campaign, but it wasn’t all his fault. Among wide receivers with at least 100 targets, only Calvin Ridley (67.5) had a lower catchable ball rate than Harrison Jr. (71.9) among wide receivers. MHJ also had a drop percentage of just 2.6, which was sixth lowest based on this research. He also had the third-highest average depth of target (aDOT), and he was fifth in terms of the percentage of his team’s air yards.

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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith is coming off a breakout season with the Miami Dolphins, as he finished fourth in fantasy points among tight ends. However, he did most of his damage in the second half. Over the first 10 weeks, Smith was the TE16 and averaged a non-descript 8.2 points per game. Smith went off after that, leading all tight ends with 148.7 points. That stretch of eight games included five with 19-plus fantasy points. That won’t likely happen again.

Jerry Jeudy

Jerry Jeudy blew away his previous career high in targets this past season, posting 145 (he never had more than 113 while in Denver). He was an absolute target hog in seven games with Jameis Winston under center, averaging 10 per game. In the 10 games without him, however, Jeudy averaged just 7.6 targets. Winston is now with the New York Giants, and the Browns will get back deep sleeper Cedrick Tillman and signed veteran Diontae Johnson in the offseason. Statistical regression is likely coming for Jeudy in fantasy this season.

Isiah Pacheco

Isiah Pacheco had a fast start to the 2024 campaign, scoring 15.8 and 16.1 fantasy points in his first two games. Unfortunately, he suffered a fractured right fibula in Week 2 and was forced to miss 10 weeks. Upon his return and over the final five weeks of the season, he averaged 10.8 touches, 3.6 yards per rush, 10.8 rushing attempts, and five fantasy points.

More shockingly, Pacheco was in a 50/50 split with Kareem Hunt in terms of snaps played and touches when he did return. That split widened during the postseason, as Hunt was the clear lead back on Kansas City’s run to the Super Bowl. The Chiefs re-signed Hunt and added Elijah Mitchell and rookie Brashard Smith, so Pacheco will come with risk in 2025.

Chargers Passing Game

The Los Angeles Chargers ranked 23rd in pass percentage last season with Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator. Not surprisingly, Justin Herbert averaged a career low 29.6 pass attempts per game. That’s 5.5 fewer than he averaged in 2023. Just one quarterback has averaged more than 30 pass attempts per game in Roman’s offenses, and that was Lamar Jackson (31.8 in 2021). So, while Herbert finished a respectable 11th in fantasy points at the quarterback position, Roman’s system will likely cap Herbert from being elite again.

Jared Goff

Jared Goff finished as the sixth-best fantasy quarterback last season, but it was a second-half run that put him over the top. In Weeks 1-10, Goff averaged 231.1 yards, 15.4 fantasy points and was the QB17. He went on to lead quarterbacks in points over the final eight weeks, averaging 318.6 passing yards and 23.2 points. That includes a four-game stretch where he averaged 28.6 points. Goff won’t have a streak like that again, especially when you consider that the Lions project to have one of the NFL’s toughest schedules.

Justin Fields

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Justin Fields, who is just 26 years old, has been a starter in the NFL for two full seasons during his days in Chicago (2022-2023).  In his second NFL campaign, he rushed for 1,143 yards … that’s the second-most rushing yards from a quarterback in NFL history. He also averaged 19.7 points per game and finished sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. Fields missed four games the following season, but he still averaged 17.7 points per game.

Last season, Fields averaged 18.9 points and rushed for an average of 38.5 yards in his six starts for the Steelers. Projected over a full year, he would have finished with 655 rushing yards and 321.3 points. That would have been good enough to finish seventh in points.

Drake Maye

Drake Maye showed flashes of potential as a rookie, scoring 17-plus points six times in 13 games (12 starts). He also averaged 41 rushing yards in the 10 games where he played at least 43 snaps, which projects to almost 700 yards over a full 17-game slate. Since 2000, a quarterback has rushed for at least 650 yards (minimum 12 starts) 24 times. In 22 of those instances, the quarterback averaged at least 17.7 points per game. In 16 instances, the quarterback averaged at least 20 points. That’s good news for Maye’s 2025 value.

Cooper Kupp

Cooper Kupp has run the majority of his routes (and produced the majority of his fantasy success) as an inside receiver. In fact, 76.6 percent of his fantasy points last season came out of the slot. Now in Seattle and with Jaxon Smith-Njigba playing the main slot receiver role, Kupp will be playing more often on the outside. Also, Kubiak ran the second-least 11 personnel (three wide receivers) while running the Saints offense last year. He mostly ran either 12 or 21 personnel. None of these stats bode very well for Kupp’s fantasy value.

Jalen McMillan

Jalen McMillan wasn’t on fantasy football radars over the first 13 weeks of his rookie campaign, as he averaged just 3.4 targets and 4.5 points (eight games). In his final five games, however, McMillan averaged 6.2 targets and 19.8 points. That was due in large part to the absence of Chris Godwin, whose absence opened up 8.9 targets per game. With Godwin expected to return this season and the Buccaneers drafting Emeka Egbuka, McMillan will be hard pressed to be a very consistent fantasy player in 2025.