Ready ... set ... no!
Tiering your players on a weekly basis not only is a good way to determine whom to draft in fantasy football, but also is great way to break ties for tough lineup decisions each week. Delving into the tiers this week, we've got a beleaguered stud QB making a return to fantasy prominence; a running back that's up to no good and all those tight ends that looked like breakouts in Week 1. Plus, I give you a little history lesson on why
OK, I know what you're thinking. Something along the lines of "Roethlisberger behind Kitna, O'Sullivan and oh lord, Hasselbeck? Seriously, have you been huffing glue?" Pretty close, right? Let me explain. First off, that Detroit/San Francisco matchup has aerial showdown written all over it. O'Sullivan and his receivers are really starting to resemble a well-oiled
With the Browns coming to town in Week 4, and the imminent return of the infamous
Sometimes the stats can be deceiving. They can lull fantasy owners into a false sense of security and often lead to over-inflated expectations and misguided starts. The Buccaneers' Graham is a perfect example of a running back who's attempting to pull the wool over your eyes early this year. His overall numbers are great: 207 rushing yards, a touchdown and an otherworldly 8.3 yards per carry, but look a little closer and you'll see the deception in his lying eyes. He's actually accumulated 114 yards and his touchdown on just two carries (a 68 and 46 yarder), and he's in a virtual time share with the rejuvenated Dunn (29 touches for Graham, 25 for Dunn). When you consider that last year he didn't have a run of over 26 yards, it becomes even more apparent what an anomaly the first two weeks have been. If you start Graham against the Bears this week, you're essentially ignoring the truth and just hoping that he breaks another long run. I'm not willing to do that.
Don't let the return of
As you can see, there's not much out of whack with the receivers this week. Although there is one guy that I'm advocating as a "bench" this week despite his sexy name, and extremely productive start to the season. Santana Moss. It's not the matchup that I'm worried about; The Cardinals have a decent secondary, but it's far from a shutdown unit. No, it's Moss' past that makes me cringe when I think about starting him, and as everyone knows, you can't run from your past (even if you are a speedy, undersized NFL receiver). The facts are that heading into Week 3, Moss is coming off consecutive games with a touchdown, and had a 164-yard performance last week. Did you know though, that outside of a three game stretch in '05, Moss has only had one back-to-back 100-yard outing during his seven-year career? Did you also know that only once has he ever had a touchdown streak of longer than two games? Is it possible that Moss goes against what his history indicates and nets another 100 yards and scores? Sure, it's possible, and it's also possible that I wake up tomorrow morning to find my dog cooking me breakfast in a cocktail dress, but it's certainly not probable. And for me, fantasy football is all about probability.
Edwards has been targeted 18 times in two games, yet has only come up with five receptions. Is the blame on Anderson or did Edwards' hands turn to stone in the offseason? Whatever the reason, I'm officially putting him on double secret probation ... Rivers to Chambers is quickly becoming one of the better QB/WR duos in the league. Since coming over to the Chargers in Week 8 last year, Chambers has seven touchdowns in 12 games, including five over the past four contests ... Not so fast on Gonzalez. Outside of Wayne, the other Colts receiving threats are going to be rotating big games depending on the matchups and injuries. This week it's Harrison's turn against a Jaguars team that he always thrashes ... I'm not sure when I'll be ready to fully trust Jones again. Probably never. Definitely not until he catches a touchdown ... Don't look now, but Lloyd is becoming the go-to-guy in Chicago. Unfortunately, it's still Chicago and it's still Orton, but maybe, just maybe, being reunited with his former college coach,
If Week 2 taught us anything about tight ends, it's that they're an unreliable, untrustworthy breed. After outstanding openers, Rosario, Fasano, Royal and Shockey didn't manage a single fantasy point between them (Shockey had 22 yards, but fumbled). Neither did Davis or Scaife, and Olsen actually had negative points if your league scores lost fumbles. Only Carlson and Scheffler managed to out-produce their projected value. Look for those two to continue their great play, and for Davis and Scaife to take advantage of favorable matchups and put up viable numbers. Shockey's disappearance was a little disconcerting considering the Saints were without Colston, but don't be too concerned. Brees will look to him early and often with the Denver secondary blanketing the outside receivers. As for Fasano, Royal and Rosario ... Week 1 may have been as good as it gets.
I knew that Miller would be the leading receiver in Oakland; I just didn't think they'd be averaging a measly 11.5 completions a game ... Things aren't looking any better against the surging Bills ... Watch the reports out of Indy closely this week in regards to Clark. If he's limited in practice and considered a "game-time decision," don't risk starting him ... I fully expect someone to step up out of the Keller/Baker/Franks trio in New York at some point this season (my money's on Keller), but it won't happen this week...