MMA DFS: UFC Fight Night Jacksonville, Smith vs. Teixeira Preview
Quick turnaround and the betting and fantasy world have been put on notice by the fight fans. Record betting handles, along with fantasy contests filled to the gills, have led to more options, and more fantasy money to be made as we continue to move forward with fights. DraftKings already has added to their lobby a UFC Millionaire Maker scheduled for June 6, where first place will take home a cool million bucks, with an overall prize pool of 2.5 million. There is plenty of money to be made before we get to that event, including Wednesday night, where the UFC will host UFC Fight Night Jacksonville, headlined by former title contenders No. 4 Anthony Smith (33-14) taking on No. 8 Glover Teixeira (30-7).
Fantasy players can play this week at DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft, as collectively over $1 million will be at grabs. Not bad for a Wednesday night!
MAIN CARD
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT 205 LBS
#4 ANTHONY SMITH 33-14 VS #8 GLOVER TEIXEIRA 30-7
HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS
BEN ROTHWELL 37-12 VS OVINCE SAINT PREUX 24-13
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
#15 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ 11-2 VS DREW DOBER 22-9
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
RICKY SIMON 15-3 VS RAY BORG 13-4
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
KARL ROBERSON 9-2 VS MARVIN VETTORI 14-3-1
PRELIMS
HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS
ANDREI ARLOVSKI 28-19 VS PHILIPE LINS 14-3
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
MICHAEL JOHNSON 19-15 VS THIAGO MOISES 12-4
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
#15 SIJARA EUBANKS 4-4 VS SARAH MORAS 6-5
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
GABRIEL BENITEZ 21-7 VS OMAR MORALES 9-0
FEATHERWEIGHT 135 LBS
HUNTER AZURE 8-0 VS BRIAN KELLEHER 20-10
HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS
CHASE SHERMAN 14-6 VS IKE VILLANUEVA 16-9
MMA DFS Strategies
Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
Play the heavyweights. The approximant overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five-round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare the method of victory to the method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high percentage of submission losses.
UFC Fight Night Jacksonville: Heat Chart
Back by popular demand is the heat chart. After reviewing my tips above, the charts below provide a clean way to pick some spots.
As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Wednesday.
Notable Fight Betting Odds
Fights that oddsmakers favor not going the distance
- Sherman/Villanueva -290
- Smith/Teixeira -280
- Rothwell/Saint Preux -215
- Arlovski/Lins -170
Fighter most likely to win via finish
- Smith -115
- Lins +115
- Sherman +120
- Rothwell +160
- Morales +175
Fighters least likely to win via finish
- Moras +850
- Borg +625
- Benitez +425
- Roberson +410
- Azure +400
Fighters with the highest percentage of their wins via finish
- Sherman 92%
- Rothwell 92%
- Smith 91%
- Lins 86%
- Teixeira 84%
Fighters with the lowest percentage of their wins via finish
- Simon 46%
- Azure 50%
- Eubanks 50%
- Johnson 53%
- Borg 54%
Final Recommendations
Take a look at the main event, which is scheduled for five rounds. If it doesn’t go all five, giving you the extra rounds for points, It’s also projected not to make the final bell. Pick the right guy as part of your lineup. For me, its SMITH.
Three heavyweight fights on the card and you should look to roster from these fights. LINS, SHERMAN, and ROTHWELL are the favorites to win before the final bell. SHERMAN seems to be in the best spot of the three.
My core plays include SMITH, LINS, SIMON, EUBANKS and consider for underdogs HERNANDEZ and ROTHWELL.
