Entering his fourth season, New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has proven himself to be a fantasy first-round staple. He’s been nominated to three Pro Bowls and was named the 20th-best player in 2018 and the 14th-best in 2019 in the NFL’s Top 100.
Kamara lost some of his elite luster in 2019 after a significant setback in TD production (six in 14 games), which came after scoring 31 touchdowns over his first 31 games.
He held value in catches (81 in each of his three seasons, which is a weird coincidence, right?), but he lost his explosiveness (6.6 YPC) in the passing game. I think if the Saints can find a more reliable third option after Kamara and Michael Thomas, things will open back up. That may be helped by the addition of WR Emmanuel Sanders, formerly with San Francisco & Denver.
Kamara continues to run hard while breaking tackles in the open field, but the Saints struggled to get him in space in 2019.
He missed two games midseason while dealing with ankle and knee injuries.
Kamara only had two impact games (161 combined yards with two TDs and ten catches and 110 combined yards with two TDs and six catches).
Overall, he averaged 18.0 touches per game, which was well below the top RBs. The Saints had him on the field for about 67 percent of their plays in his 14 games of action.
I set his initial bar at 1,554 combined yards with 11 TDs and 83 catches. Kamara has an ADP of five in the high-stakes market. We are buying him with the expectation that 2019 was a hiccup. It seems too early for the tread on his tires to be worn in what will be his age-25 season.