UFC Fight Night Vegas 6: Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik - MMA Betting & DFS Preview
The UFC keeps rolling with a 12-fight card live from the APEX in Las Vegas this weekend, headlined by heavyweight contenders squaring off in what looks to be a solid card top to bottom.
In the night’s headliner, No. 4 ranked fan favorite Derrick Lewis (23-7) faces one of the elite submission artists in the division and the entire sport, No. 11 Aleksei Oleinik (59-13-1). This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup you won’t want to miss.
Co-headlining the event is former middleweight champ Chris Weidman (14-5) taking on #11 Omari Akhmedov (20-4-1) in a very important matchup for both fighters. After his opponent fainted walking to the octagon last weekend resulting in a scrapped fight, Kevin Holland (17-5) is back and immediately re-booked this weekend as well, taking on debuting fighter Joaquin Buckley (10-2). As mentioned, we will have 12 fights on the night, with the prelims kicking off at 6 pm ET, followed by the main card at 9 pm ET, all live on ESPN+.
UFC Fight Night Vegas 6 Details
DATE: SATURDAY 08/08/2020
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC APEX
LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
# of MATCHES: 12
MAIN CARD
HEAVYWEIGHT 265 LBS
#4 DERRICK LEWIS 23-7 VS #10 ALEXEY OLEINIK 59-13-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
#11 OMARI AKHMEDOV 20-4-1 VS CHRIS WEIDMAN 14-5
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
MAKI PITOLO 13-5 VS DARREN STEWART 11-5
WOMEN’S BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
#8 YANA KUNITSKAYA 12-5 VS JULIJA STOLIARENKO 9-3-1
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
#14 BENEIL DARIUSH 18-4-1 VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN 14-3
PRELIMS
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
KEVIN HOLLAND 17-5 VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY 10-2
WELTERWEIGHT 170 LBS
TIM MEANS 29-12-1 VS LAUREANO STAROPOLI 9-2
LIGHTWEIGHT 155 LBS
NASRAT HAQPARAST 11-3 VS ALEX MUNOZ 6-0
MIDDLEWEIGHT 185 LBS
ANDREW SANCHEZ 11-5 VS WELLINGTON TURMAN 16-3
FEATHERWEIGHT 145 LBS
GAVIN TUCKER 11-1 VS JUSTIN JAYNES 16-4
FEATHERWEIGHT 145 LBS
YOUSSEF ZALAL 9-2 VS PETER BARRETT 11-3
BANTAMWEIGHT 135 LBS
IRWIN RIVERA 9-5 VS ALI AL QAISI 8-3
MAIN EVENT PREDICTION
#4 DERRICK LEWIS 23-7 VS #10 ALEXEY OLEINIK 59-13-1
This will be an amazing sight to see. We have one of the most exciting knockout artists against one of the most technical grapplers in the sport and at heavyweight! Derrick Lewis, the former title contender, is coming in off of two consecutive wins, looking to stay the course and position himself for another future title shot once we get out of the log jam at the top of the division. Oleinik has professional fights across four decades, and dare I say he’s looked better than ever in his last two fights? Oleinik is still in great shape despite being 73 fights into his career. He also has a consecutive win streak, most recently knocking off Fabricio Werdum and Maurice Greene. With a win Saturday night, the “Boa Constrictor” shakes up the division in a big way.
On the feet, Oleinik is going to be in trouble against Lewis. He’s very hittable and has been known to take some damage to get inside to implement his submission work. This will cause some issues with the heavy shots from Lewis coming his way. He gets hit clean even once, and I could see him turtle up, which would secure Lewis a TKO. With five rounds to work, if he can avoid the grappling, he should wear down the 43-year-old Oleinik across the 25 minutes, eventually causing an error ending Oleinik’s night.
On the other hand, Lewis has been known to be a slow starter and let his opponents into fights before ultimately landing a big shot. His last two wins were razor close and against grapplers Ilar Litifi and Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis was taken down three times in each of those fights, yet was able to do enough on the feet to sway the judges. (Note going into this fight, Lewis has a 53% takedown defense) In my opinion, Oleinik is more of a threat on the mat than these two former opponents, so things could get very interesting if this one gets down to the mat. The Oleinik line continues to get hit, moving Lewis more and more in the direction I like to see by fight time. I have taken a position on the under 1.5 rounds as of write up at plus money. I believe with two very contrasting styles, we could see a very cautious chess match between the two, though the small cage will eventually force the engagement between the two. We will see one of two finishes in this one, in a fight that highly likely should end early. Lewis looks to be a great shape, and I know the guy above him in the ranks has been chirping his way a bit for taking this so-called “easy fight.”
Nothing easy about facing a guy with 59 victories and 46 of them by way of submission as a pro, though. I anticipate we see Lewis looking to score earlier than we have in the recent past. If we look into Oleinik’s last four fights, he was finished in one round by Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. After taking punishment and almost gassing after one round, beat a very green Maurice Greene (no pun intended), and most recently edged out a split decision against the shell of Fabricio Werdum, who was coming back after a two-year layoff and out of shape. Oleinik has four losses under the UFC banner, and three are by way of KO. On the other hand, Lewis has only lost via submission once, and that was to a former double champ, Daniel Cormier. That’s a big neck to get your hands around.
PREDICTIONS
- OLEINIK/LEWIS U1.5 ROUNDS +100
- DERRICK LEWIS -200 (look via TKO/KO -135)
OTHER WAGERS
MAKI PITOLO 13-5 VS DARREN STEWART 11-5
“Coconut Bombz" vs. "The Dentist." You know what that means. Maki Pitolo has looked good at 185, but this will be a step up in competition for him. Darren Stewart is a lackluster 3-3 outside of the UK, but this is his to lose, in my opinion, and I don’t think he will. Stewart has proven his durability and will be able to stand up with Pitolo and make this one war. He’ll also have more speed and power, and just might be able to finish Pitolo. Pitolo is coming off of a TKO win against Charles Byrd in June, where Byrd was set to retire post-fight. Byrd gave a great effort for one round then was pretty much ready to call it a day. Stewart won’t be doing the same. Expect a war.
PREDICTION: DARREN STEWART -155
#14 BENEIL DARIUSH 18-4-1 VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN 14-3
No bathroom break fight here—tons of skill in this one. Dariush looks to be back on track with four wins in a row, including finishes in his last three against some tough opponents. Holtzman is tough himself, and has never been finished in 17 fights, and is coming in to probably his toughest test to date. Dariush just has more ways to win here. I believe he’s more technical everywhere, coupled with some power, as we saw against Drakkar Klose in March, resulting in a first-time knockout. Holtzman is getting up there in age (36) but always comes in ready, in shape, and ready to go to war. He has one path to victory here, and it via KO. I got Dariush.
PREDICTION: BENEIL DARIUSH -160
YOUSSEF ZALAL 9-2 VS PETER BARRETT 11-3
Peter Barrett is making his UFC debut here and coming down from 155 to take on Youssef Zalal, who’s been very busy this year (3rd fight scheduled in 2020). Zalal is a very young prospect and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Barrett has been inactive for the last year, with two fights being canceled this year, and is finally getting his much-anticipated shot under the bright lights. Zalal should be better everywhere. Barrett’s strength is on the feet with his striking, so I expect Zalal to do what we didn't see against Jordan Griffin in his last match, and that is taking this one to the mat to expose Barrett’s limited grappling ability. Zalal is great with the chokes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get another one here.
PREDICTION: ZALAL via SUB +400
FULL MAIN CARD & PRELIM PREDICTIONS
- DERRICK LEWIS defeats ALEXEY OLEINIK
- OMARI AKHMEDOV defeats CHRIS WEIDMAN
- DARREN STEWART defeats MAKI PITOLO
- JULIJA STOLIARENKO defeats YANA KUNITSKAYA
- BENEIL DARIUSH defeats SCOTT HOLTZMAN
- KEVIN HOLLAND defeats JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
- LAUREANO STAROPOLI defeats TIM MEANS
- NASRAT HAQPARAST defeats ALEX MUNOZ
- WELLINGTON TURMAN defeats ANDREW SANCHEZ
- JUSTIN JAYNES defeats GAVIN TUCKER
- YOUSSEF ZALAL defeats PETER BARRETT
- IRWIN RIVERA defeats ALI AL QAISI
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET SUMMARY
Fight card predictions overall: 229-128-7 (65%)
Targeted matchups (wagers): 90-39-3 (70%)
UFC FIGHT NIGHT DFS Plays & Strategies
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high percentage of submission victories matched with Fighter B, with a high percentage of submission losses.
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC VEGAS 6. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Historical striking differential comparisons below
(Strikes landed minus strikes absorbed)
UFC Fight Night Vegas 6 Final Recommendations
- Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Take a look at the main event. This one is five rounds, and should end early. I like Lewis.
- Top-tier fighters to build around include Holland & Zalal
- Mid-tier fighter considerations are Lewis & Stewart
- Live Dogs are Jaynes, Stoliarenko
