2020 PGA Vivint Houston Open - DFS Tiers and Top Fade
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
- Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
- Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
- Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
- U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
- Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)
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$9,000+ Range
Ben Heisler: Tony Finau ($10,900) & Russell Henley ($9,400)
Finau is known for breaking your heart, and I think the hefty price tag takes him out of most cash lineups this week despite a terrific stretch of golf.
Finau has two top 10 finishes over the last four tournaments, and has finished no worse than 17th at the TOUR Championship. He’s top 8 in strokes gained: total, 4th in SG: tee-to-green, as well as 10th in SG: approach. Being a slightly longer course, I like the edge Finau will have off the tee, plus averaging over 80 DK points over the last month never hurts either.
As for Henley, he’s a cash game lock. He hasn’t missed a cut in his last seven tournaments (all the way back to July with the 3M Open when he shot a 72 and 69 on the first two days). He also has back-to-back top 3-4 finishes in his last two events, including a blistering last weekend with a 63 and 66 over at the Zozo Championship.
Henley is either 2nd or 3rd in SG: total, tee-to-green, ball striking, and approach over his last 24 rounds. Get him in cash and breathe easily.
Mark Farris: Viktor Hovland ($9,800) & Hideki Matsuyama ($10,000)
In a week before a November Major (never thought I’d say that), it is sometimes unusual to have this many big names. Normally, the obvious would be Brooks and DJ. However, DJ is coming off two week of COVID quarantine and Brooks hasn’t really had his best year. Hideki hasn’t finished outside the Top 30 since July when he’s made a cut. Viktor is a gut feeling. Even though he lost strokes putting at ZOZO (-4.6), the last time he did that, he bounced back with strokes gained in his following two events. All these guys can have bad putting weeks. It’s when it becomes consistent that you need to worry. No worries here.
Alex White: Tyrell Hatton ($10,300) & Russell Henley ($9,400)
Hatton has been a model of consistency on Tour since the restart. In his last ten events he has compiled a win, three top 5 finishes, a solo 7th, two top 30’s and two missed cuts.
This is a perfect layout for his game. Easy to hit greens with lighting fast speed. His putter should give him a clear advantage this week. He will be highly motivated to play the weekend otherwise he wouldn’t be teeing it up a week prior to the Masters. I have no doubt he makes the cut and given his recent success the price is well worth it for the golfer you’re paying up for.
If you want a more balanced build this week look no further than starting your lineups with Russell Henley. Henley has been a ball striking machine and his putter is much better on Bermuda greens. Last time out he gained 9.2 strokes through approach and lost 5.3 strokes with his putter. He was in the bottom three worst putters at the ZOZO and still managed a fourth place finish. Ride this hot streak until it fizzles out.
I will be starting my lineups with both golfers and building from there. There is plenty of value at the bottom of the DraftKings player pool.
$7,500 - $8,900
Ben Heisler: Doc Redman ($8,800) & James Hahn ($8,000)
Redman ranks 4th in DK points gained over his last 24 rounds, and also comes in 3rd in SG: total. His $8,800 price tag feels like a discount after last week; kind of like a black Friday sale on a TV because the store got all these new models in.
Regardless, his T4 at the Bermuda last week told me everything I needed to know about considering backing Redman as he starts to go into one of his recent grooves.
With Hahn, I feel like it’s Russell Henley “light.” He has three finishes inside the top 10 over his last three tournaments including a T5 at the Shriners several weeks back. He’s 10th in SG: total over his last 24 rounds, and 8th in SG: tee-to-green with a price tag right at $8K.
Other than losing a stroke with his putter, the numbers continue to keep climbing for Hahn in each of the last three rounds, so there’s no reason to fade him now.
Mark Farris: Stewart Cink ($8,000)
I’m going with experience here and the fact that no one has seen this course. Since September began, Mr. Cink has finished in the Top 15 in 3 of his 4 events, including a win at Safeway. For those of you that don’t want to risk the elder statesman, a good pivot would be Si Woo Kim ($8,300). In his last 3 events he’s T17, T8, T37 (from most recent back). He has a higher ceiling if he’s playing well, but I think Cink has the least risk between the two.
Alex White: Wyndham Clark ($7,700)
Sometimes statistically things don't line up the way you see things. Wyndham Clark passes the eye test with flying colors. He comes in ranking 62nd overall in my model. The stats that do pop are his par 5 scoring where he ranks 1st in the field, and DraftKings scoring where he ranks 23rd overall. I want upside in a projected shootout, Wyndham brings plenty of that to the table. Coming in off a great weekend he should be motivated to pick up where he left off.
I have the Honda as a corollary course and he placed 11th and 7th in the past two years at that event. Click the name, don't look at the inconsistencies and move on.
$7,400 and Under
Ben Heisler: Sepp Straka ($7,000)
Straka has shown throughout the year that he can hang with the best of them when he’s in contention. He’s outstanding off the tee as well as with his putter, with the only major weakness in his short game around the green (T124 in SG: around-the-green via Fantasy National).
He also fits the description of low-priced golfers that I like heading into a tournament with improved play over the previous 2-3 weeks. Before missing the cut at the Sanderson, Straka finished T43 at the Shriners and T21 at the Bermuda Championship last week.
Mark Farris: Ollie Schniederjans ($7,100)
To be perfectly honest with all of you, about two weeks ago I was wondering what ever happened to Ollie. Then, last week, I saw his name on the list and thought, huh, that must have been a sign. Of course, me being the (you fill in the blank) that I am, I couldn’t pull the trigger. Then, what do you know, a 3rd place finish. While I’m not expecting that in a tougher field, Ollie’s game looks good. Hopefully, he continues his solid play. As a bonus, he’s not in the Masters so there’s no chance of him giving up on Friday if he isn’t playing well so he can get to Augusta early.
Alex White: Scott Piercy ($7,200)
Want an ownership edge this week? Piercy should come in at sub 8%. I rarely look at course history but when you see an inconsistent golfer like Piercy having made all three cuts and posting nothing worse than a 24th place finish you take notice.
That alone wouldn’t sell me. What sold me was back to back top 20 finishes. At the Shriners he gained 7.1 strokes through approaches. His best putting surface is Bermuda and he has shown he can succeed at the Honda. All it takes is a few positive check marks next to a name at $7,200 to make it worth the chance.
Top Fade
Ben Heisler: Jason Day ($9,000)
When Jason Day is locked in, he becomes a fantasy horse. You lock him into your DraftKings lineup and you prepare for a likely top 10 finish like we saw from July - mid-August with four consecutive top 10’s at the Workday Charity Open, the Memorial, WGC - St. Jude, and the PGA Championship.
His last four tournaments would not constitute as “locked in.” He finished T60 at the Zozo, withdrew from the CJ Cup, and missed the cut at the Shriners. His strokes gained numbers have all been negative outside of off-the-tee.
For $9,000, I’ll take my chances elsewhere.
Mark Farris: Dustin Johnson ($11,500)
This is NOT a complete fade. I may have him in a lineup. However, the pricing on DK throws you to an average of $7,700 per golfer if you start with DJ. In true DJ form, he could come out of quarantine and set this course ablaze and coast through a Sunday round for a win. However, my gut tells me this will be a “competition” practice tournament to get his juices flowing for next week. DJ can - and probably will - win a Masters. I think he’s looking ahead. P.S. - I think Brooks does too.
Alex White: Brooks Koepka ($10,600)
Brooks was playing poorly prior to his knee surgery and managed a very ho-hum performance in his return at the CJ Cup. I believe he is close but not nearly 100% yet. This is purely a tune up tournament for the Masters. I don’t think he cares if he makes the cut or not. He is simply testing his game in a competitive atmosphere and will look to clean up any inconsistencies leading up to next Thursday. Find a different spot to pay up for.
