2021 PGA Sony Open - DFS Tiers and Top Fade
Previous 2021 PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary
- Sentry Tournament of Champions: Harris English ($8,700)
- RSM Classic: Robert Streb ($6,300)
- The Masters: Dustin Johnson ($10,000)
- Vivint Houston Open: Carlos Ortiz ($6,700)
- Bermuda Championship: Brian Gay ($6,300)
- Zozo Championship: Patrick Cantlay ($9,400)
- CJ Cup at Shadow Creek: Jason Kokrak ($7,000)
- Shriners Hospitals for Children Open: Martin Laird ($6,400)
- Sanderson Farms Championship: Sergio Garcia ($8,600)
- Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship: Hudson Swafford ($6,700)
- U.S. Open: Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900)
- Safeway Open: Stewart Cink ($6,300)
$9,000+ Range
Ben Heisler: Joaquin Niemann ($10,400)
There should be a variety of reasons worth considering fading Niemann. First, when spending up for a runner-up from the previous week, you’re paying for past performance in an ideal let-down spot. Secondly, this is Niemann’s highest price point in over a calendar year, perhaps ever. Going back through 2020, every time Niemann has been above $9,000, he’s finished 23rd, 44th, MC, and 57th. Lastly, while he’s the fourth-highest priced option on the board, he still comes in at 28/1 on DraftKings Sportsbook with the eighth-lowest odds.
BET THE 2021 SONY OPEN AT DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK
All that said, Niemann is red-hot and in the midst of a streak like this, the last thing you want is to fade him. He’s improved his scoring the last three rounds and was brilliant at the Sentry last week, losing to Harris English in the playoff.
Niemann ranks second in strokes gained: total, third in SG: off-the-tee, and second in DraftKings points gained over his last 24 rounds.
Let bygones be bygones as Niemann finally pays off on his high price tag.
Mark Farris: Abraham Ancer ($9,400)
When giving advice, I usually like to stay away from the obvious. That being said, Webb Simpson ($11,100), Collin Morikawa ($10,600), Hideki Matsuyama ($10,200) and Sungjae Im ($9,800) all peak my interest in this tier this week. However, Abraham Ancer is sort of my “go to” when Xander isn’t in the field. Both of them give me the same feeling of, “they can win but no one pays a lot of attention to them.”
Now, it also doesn’t hurt that his worst finish since October 2020 has been a T35 at the ZOZO Championship. Four of those six events have been top 20. He also ranks 12th in the model I use that weighs current form (40%), key stats (35%) and course history (25%). Any of you that have followed me in the past know that I put a lot more weight on how someone is playing and whether the course “fits” than I do what Vegas thinks. Don’t be afraid to use any of the guys I mentioned, but I’d personally rather save a little money at the top unless I’m setting a bunch of lineups; which I’m not this week.
$7,500 - $8,900
Ben Heisler: Jason Kokrak ($7,700)
The results for Kokrak haven’t been great over his last 12 rounds, but the metrics are still very sound. Over his last 24 rounds, Kokrak ranks 8th in SG: off-the-tee, 14th in SG: total, and fourth in SG: putting.
Two missed cuts and a T35 at the Sentry doesn’t leave much to be desired, but let’s not forget that Kokrak is four events removed from winning the CJ Cup and averaging more than seven strokes gained: tee-to-green in the month of August.
Also, he’s not someone who needs time to get back into form after missing a cut. Kokrak followed his two most recent MC’s with the following scores: 1st (CJ Cup), and 15 (Wyndham).
Mark Farris: Kevin Kisner ($8,800)
Another guy who, other than the Masters, has been playing well. He ranks 8th in my model this week and has 4 top 25s in his last six attempts here (including three top 5 finishes). On a course where accuracy overrides distance (although distance can sometimes make up for bad accuracy), “Kis” is a good play.
Other options here can be Charles Howell III (CH3) ($8,000) who has made the cut here in the last nine years and been top 35 in each of them. Zach Johnson ($8,500) and Brendan Todd ($8,200) are also solid. Todd is riding a really hot putter right now.
$7,400 and Under
Ben Heisler: Cameron Davis ($7,200)
Davis despite a $7,200 price tag ranks fourth in this week’s field in DraftKings points gained, while also ranking top 10 in SG: off-the-tee and 12th in putting. He had a few hiccups in two events in October and November, but this is still someone who finished T6, T12 and T16 in the latter part of the season.
David was also outstanding last year at the Sony Open, finishing 9th while gaining a full eight strokes tee-to-green. His putting will need to improve, but just like any high upside golfers in the field, all it takes is a few breaks and the confidence is there.
Mark Farris: Doug Ghim ($6,900)
Sticking with my “avoiding the obvious” mantra, most casual players won’t even know who this guy is. Let alone, how good he is. He’s made his last five cuts since October. Nothing over-the-top that stands out, but he does have two top 20s. He missed the cut here last year which gives me a little pause, but it was also his first attempt.
Some other obvious plays to me down here are Stewart Cink ($7,200) who has made six conscutive cuts here - although he missed the 2020 event. Scott Piercy ($7,300) has made six straight cuts at this event and finished 2nd in 2015. I also like Sepp Straka ($7,100). Not just because his name sounds like he’s a member of MI-6, but also because he makes cuts. At these price levels, that’s all you need for value.
Top Fade
Ben Heisler: Kevin Kisner ($8,800)
I hate to do this to Mark’s guy, but the metrics don’t add up to the results for Kisner right now, and $8,800 is a fairly steep price to pay for someone that you just don’t trust.
Kisner over his last 24 rounds ranks 54th in SG: total, 105thin SG: off-the-tee, and 85th in SG: around-the-green. This despite a T24, 2nd place, a MC, and a T14 finish in his last four events. At some point, the numbers will catch up and I’d rather be on the right side of Kisner when everything is actually lining up.
Mark Farris: Harris English ($10,800)
No other reasons than price and coming off a win last week. I could tell you I’m fading Keith Mitchell ($6,600) but what good would that do? This will either be a great call, a “blah” call, or the worst call in the history of PGA DFS as he goes 60-59-58-61, but I’ll take my chances.
