Divisional Weekend NFL DFS Plays: Top Values, Low Ownership Players and Stacks
Every week, SI Fantasy analyst Michael Fabiano runs through his favorite DraftKings values in the NFL to help offset the expensive studs. Additionally, SI Fantasy analyst Ben Heisler discusses several low ownership plays with high upside to help leverage the field; along with his favorite low-ownership DFS "game stack" for the week.
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Michael Fabiano's Top DFS Values on DraftKings
QB: Baker Mayfield - Cleveland ($5,300) at Kansas City
Even as a value, the opportunity to roster Mayfield could still end up contrarian. The matchup is bad. KC has given up fewer than 19 fantasy points per game to QB. Baker has averaged fewer than 18 points per game on the road during the 2020-21 season.
However, the total in this game is sitting at 57 and climbing. If we know one thing about Vegas, is that they know all. I do wonder if this game will force the Browns to throw a ton in the second half and Baker ends up with 20-25 fantasy points in this game. For that kind of upside and the second lowest price tag amongst QBs, I think he could be in a bit of a sneaky spot.
RB: Devin Singletary - Buffalo ($4,500) vs Baltimore
It's the Devin Singletary show this week when the Bills host the Ravens. In three games during the regular season, when Zack Moss was out, Singletary averaged 51 snaps while posting 16+ fantasy points twice. One of those games included a very solid performance against the Rams who boast one of the top defenses in the NFL.
Singletary as the lead back in potentially rough weather could pay off his salary in a big time way this Saturday night.
WR: Hollywood Brown - Baltimore ($5,200) at Buffalo
Once again, Hollywood makes the list but the numbers continue to speak for themselves.
He's scored 13 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games, including over 21 vs the Bengals to wrap up the season. He's scored double digit fantasy points in seven consecutive games as well.
Brown carried his strong second half into last week vs. Tennessee with seven catches on nine targets for 109 yards. While the Bills have been tough vs receivers lined out wide, Brown's speed and athleticism can still put him in a spot to blow up, making him a somewhat volatile pick, but an absolute steal even if he makes one big play and ends up scoring.
Additional DraftKings DFS Values - Divisional Round
QB: Josh Allen - $7,400 (BAL @ BUF)
RB: Cam Akers - $5,700 (LAR @ GB) | Kareem Hunt (CLE @ KC) - $4,800
WR: Michael Thomas - $6,700 (TB @ NO) | Antonio Brown - $5,400 (TB @ NO) |
TE: Austin Hooper - $3,800 (CLE @ KC)
D/ST: Kansas City - $3,600 vs CLE
Be sure to check out Fabiano's divisional round rankings before finalizing any lineup decisions or if your league has special scoring rules, sign up for SI Fantasy+ for customized rankings.
Ben Heisler's Low Ownership Plays on DraftKings
QB: Tom Brady - Tampa Bay ($6,600) at New Orleans
Numbers were be a large component of the narrative between Brees and Brady on Sunday evening when it comes to their age. Brady (43) and Brees (42) will be the two oldest combined quarterbacks to ever match up in a postseason game in New Orleans when they face off for the third time this year. None of it matters.
Instead, I'll choose to focus on these numbers instead. Brady has re-discovered the deep ball and his receivers are making plays after the catch. Over the last four weeks, Brady is averaging close to 370 passing yards per game, has at least two touchdowns thrown in every game since November 8th, and has been the top fantasy scoring QB since Week 14.
Playing in the dome adds a boost to both offenses, and while the Bucs have been blown out by New Orleans in both matchups this year, Tampa's offensive identity is far more established now, and I'm not going to bet on Brady to get clobbered for a third straight game, especially with a trip to the NFC Championship on the line.
RB: Nick Chubb - Cleveland ($6,600) at Kansas City
Kareem Hunt will be the "revenge game" narrative-driven play of the week for many DFS players. He outscored Chubb in PPR points for the season, the price tag is a bargain at $4,800, and his usage rate would indicate that he'll see plenty of snaps to find his way into the end zone.
If that's the case, that means there's less ownership for Nick Chubb and I'll happily zag where most will zig when it comes to rostering Cleveland Browns running backs.
While Chubb was outscored, let's not forget that he did it in 16 games whereas Chubb played in just 12 and still finished with over 1,000 rushing. And for those worried that Chubb won't be involved in the passing game and is game-script dependent, he's actually averaging more catches, targets and receiving yards than Hunt over the last four games.
The Chiefs have improved in their inconsistent run defense, but Browns Head Coach Kevin Stefanski will want Cleveland to still be a run-first team to keep Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce off the field. Time of possession, extended drives, and red zone conversions will keep the Browns in this game as a 10-point road underdog, and Nick Chubb should be a massive part of the gameplan.
WR: Cooper Kupp - Los Angeles ($5,300) at Green Bay
UPDATE: Kupp has been ruled OUT for today's game vs the Packers. Josh Reynolds ($3,200) immediately becomes a substantial value likely splitting a bunch of snaps out of the slot with Robert Woods ($5,900). HOWEVER, this becomes an even better spot for TE Tyler Higbee ($3,000).
Jared Goff is nowhere near 100% after thumb surgery, but the Rams can't run Cam Akers on every play.
I get the potential distain for this pick. Goff is wildly inconsistent, he's brutal in bad weather, and the Rams are 7-point dogs on the road in the game with the lowest total on the board. But with Packers corner Jaire Alexander locking up on half of the field (either taking out Robert Woods or Josh Reynolds), Kupp has by far the most advantageous matchup of all Rams receivers against Chandon Sullivan. Kupp also saw nine targets for the second consecutive game and played about 82-83% of the snaps.
At some point, the Rams will have to throw to remain competitive and I'd rather go with the slot receiver that Goff loves to target at a very inexpensive price of $5,300.
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Benny's Divisional Round Leverage Stack
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
QB: Tom Brady ($6,600) WR: Chris Godwin ($6,100) | WR: Antonio Brown ($5,400)
RUN-IT-BACK OPTION: RB: Alvin Kamara ($7,900)
I touched on Brady above, but the two wideouts you can stack him with pair up very well against this Saints defense, particularly in the dome.
Evans may be lower-owned than. both Godwin and Brown, but with his health concerns as well as a potential shadow matchup from Marshon Lattimore, I'll eat a little more chalk with his other two top targets, knowing I have a stack in play with less exposure than that of the Bills, Ravens, Chiefs and possibly Packers.
If you prefer to pivot from Brown up to Evans ($6,400), I won't fault you for that. But keep in mind that A.B and Godwin have each caught five touchdowns in their last four games.
As for Kamara over Thomas, the Bucs allowed the most receptions to RBs in the NFL this season. In the two games he played against Tampa, Kamara scored three touchdowns and caught 11 passes on 14 targets.
