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Week 5 Touches, Targets, Volume & Regression Index

Cordarrelle Patterson can't be stopped and has performed like the must-have fantasy breakout of the 2021 NFL season.
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Another week of fantasy football is (almost) in the books, which means it's time to review the performers who exceeded expectations based on their number of opportunities and the biggest disappointments.

(Note: This list does not include Monday Night Football's Raiders vs. Chargers matchup.)

Inefficient Volume Players

RB Mike Davis, Falcons

Somehow, Davis managed 15 touches in a game where Cordarrelle Patterson once again outplayed him. He took 13 carries for 14 yards and caught both his targets for 12 yards and an impressive touchdown against Washington. The score salvaged a putrid fantasy outing, but his final line was easily his worst this season. Davis accounts for 52% of the Falcons' rushing attempts and only 42% of their rushing yards. He is last on the team in yards per carry (3.1) behind even Matt Ryan, and he has one touchdown to show for his team-leading 65 touches. Davis' snap count was actually up from the prior two weeks, but he's regressing to the 1B to Patterson's 1A in the backfield. Even Wayne Gallman saw his first carries of the season Sunday. Davis managers have reason to worry for his volume and efficiency moving forward in an anemic Atlanta offense.

RB Latavius Murray, Ravens

Murray was the beneficiary of rookie Ty'Son Williams being somewhat of a surprise healthy scratch against Denver. Murray's offensive snap count jumped from 33% the previous week to 62% on Sunday. As such, he saw a season-high 18 carries, the most work he's received in nine games. Baltimore had its lowest rushing output of the season, led by Murray's 59 yards (3.28 yards per carry). The veteran competition behind him, though, didn't make a case to cut into his work. Le'Veon Bell carried the ball four times for 11 yards, and Devonta Freeman took his one carry for four yards. Even Lamar Jackson had a poor day running the football, ending with a season-low 28 yards on the ground. Murray did find the end zone for the third time this season. Williams' status moving forward is something to monitor as it appears he's fallen out of the coaching staff's good graces after a stellar start to the season. Murray hasn't seen enough volume to be an asset if he continues playing the way he has.

Texans Brandin Cooks Fantasy Football

WR Brandin Cooks, Texans

All good things must come to an end. It appears Cooks’ improbable fantasy honeymoon with the Texans is over. The Bills defense swarmed rookie quarterback Davis Mills in a 40-0 walloping. Mills, who kept his head above water against Carolina a week prior, threw four interceptions, took three sacks and didn’t eclipse 100 yards passing. The good news for Cooks is he still saw a target share north of 30%, and he accounted for five of Mills' 11 completions and 47 of his 87 passing yards. Unfortunately for Mills and Cooks, the slate of upcoming defenses doesn't get any easier. The Texans face the Patriots, Colts, Cardinals, Rams and Dolphins in the next five weeks. Cooks is the only offensive threat in Houston, so opposing defenses will continue to key in on him. As long as Mills is forcing the ball to Cooks, the volume will be there. However, his production may begin to taper off as it did against Buffalo.

TE George Kittle, 49ers

Sunday’s game against the Seahawks brought the volume that fantasy managers drafted Kittle hoped for. The production didn’t follow. Kittle saw a season-high 11 targets in the loss. Before leaving the game with a calf injury, Jimmy Garoppolo hooked up with his tight end four times on eight tries for 40 yards. Rookie Trey Lance, who replaced Garoppolo, targeted Kittle three times, all of which were incomplete. Kittle has yet to justify his ADP. He’s a fringe TE1 after being drafted in the first three rounds of most drafts. There is hope as he’s getting progressively more involved in the offense — 20 targets in the last two weeks compared with nine in the first two games. If teams start focusing on Samuel, Kittle stands to gain.

Limited Volume Efficiency Players

WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson, Falcons

Patterson has been not only the lone bright spot in Atlanta's offense but one of the biggest surprises of the season. He makes the most of limited playing time every week. Patterson played a season-low 30% of snaps against Washington and still topped 100 scrimmage yards for the second week in a row and added three touchdowns — all receiving. He accounts for five of the Falcons' nine offensive touchdowns while Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts have combined for one. Patterson's many trips to the end zone have boosted his value, but he has been a fine runner and a highly productive pass catcher. There's a strong case for his number of opportunities to increase, but it's clear that Arthur Smith likes employing him sparingly. The way the Falcons are using Patterson is working; he's the RB2 behind only Derrick Henry.

Cardinals Chase Edmonds Fantasy Football

RB Chase Edmonds, Cardinals

Edmonds nearly surpassed his rushing total from the first three games against the Rams. He played a season-high snap percentage (67%) and averaged 10 yards per carry, the best mark of any player with five or more carries this week. Edmonds' day could have been even bigger if James Conner hadn't vultured two goal-line touchdowns. The consistent passing work Edmonds sees week-to-week (four catches on five targets for 19 yards against LA) gives him a high floor. If he keeps running anything like this, he'll maintain his RB1 status, which is even more impressive considering he hasn't scored yet. Conner's 53 carries leads the team to Edmonds' 43, but Edmonds has been the superior rusher so far and the better receiving back. The sooner Edmonds can hold off Conner for work between the 20s and approach three-down back status, the better.

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WR Darnell Mooney, Bears

Mooney had the best game of his young career in Justin Fields' second start. Chicago's game plan was heavily focused on the running game, even after David Montgomery's injury, but Mooney fielded the bulk of the receiving game. He caught five of seven targets for 125 yards. That was out of a possible 11 completions, 17 passes and 209 passing yards for Fields. Mooney was the clear focus of the passing game as Allen Robinson's slow start continued. The duo connected on a 64-yard deep ball, and Mooney added to his career day with a 10-yard carry. Mooney was held to one catch in Fields' first career start, so this bounce-back for him and the entire Bears offense is encouraging moving forward.

Week 4 TTVR Index Performance Recap

Click here for last week's article.

Inefficient Volume Players

Nick Chubb: Volume stayed consistent (21 carries down from 22), and efficiency improved (4.8 yards per carry up from 3.8). Chubb posted his first 100-yard game of the season but was kept out of the end zone for the second week in a row.

Sony Michel: Darrell Henderson Jr.’s return cut into Michel’s workload. With the Rams trailing the Cardinals, Michel only took three carries for 11 yards. He has no standalone value.

Jaylen Waddle: Volume fell off dramatically (season-low four targets down from 13) while yards per catch improved from 4.8 to 11.

Nelson Agholor: Volume slightly decreased (five targets down from eight), but efficiency improved (caught three passes as opposed to two the week prior and averaged season-best 18 yards per catch).

Limited Volume Efficiency Players

Kareem Hunt: Rushing volume increased (14 carries up from 10) but saw fewer receiving opportunities (four targets down from seven). Rushing efficiency decreased to a still respectable 4.9 yards per carry.

Chris Carson: Volume stayed about the same (13 carries), but Alex Collins was more involved (season-high 10 carries). Carson had his worst game of the season, finishing with 30 yards while Collins scored the team's lone rushing touchdown.

DeSean Jackson: Volume decreased (three targets down from five), and efficiency fell off (took one reception for six yards). Jackson was sixth on the team in targets in the blowout loss.

Emmanuel Sanders: Volume stayed consistent (six targets for the third week in a row), and production stayed about the same (74 yards, second on the team). The touchdowns weren't there for Sanders or any Bills receivers as tight end Dawson Knox caught both passing scores from Josh Allen.

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