NFL DFS Picks for Saturday’s Divisional Playoffs
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Saturday’s NFL DFS slate has only two games, but there are still plenty of ways to build a winning lineup.
The first of Saturday’s two matchups features the fourth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars vs. the top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC divisional playoffs. They will meet up at Arrowhead in a game with the highest expected total of the week according to SI Sportsbook. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes will be rested coming off a bye and should be able to continue their offensive dominance. The Chiefs averaged 29.2 points per game during the regular season and ranked No. 1 in the NFL. The Jaguars allowed the eighth-most points to QBs this season, and Mahomes should have success on Saturday. Expect all pass-catchers to be in play, and look for pass-catching RB Jerick McKinnon to be successful, as Jacksonville allowed an 82.1% catch rate to running backs during the regular season. For Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence and his pass-catchers could also have a big day as the Chiefs allowed the most passing TDs during the regular season (33). The Jaguars will also likely lean on Travis Etienne, who has now 80-plus yards in four of his last five games.
MORE: NFL DFS Divisional Sunday Slate
The second game on Saturday’s slate features the NFC’s No. 6 seed New York Giants at the No. 1 seed Philadelphia Eagles. Jalen Hurts was the second-best QB in DFS when these two teams squared off in Week 14. Assuming he is healthy, the Eagles offense will run through Hurts, who should also be successful with his legs. Miles Sanders torched the Giants in Week 14 for 144 yards and two TDs, but he was forgettable in the Week 18 matchup, logging only 33 yards on the ground. We can probably throw out Week 18 since Hurts wasn’t 100% after missing two games with a shoulder injury. The Giants have allowed the fourth-most yards to running backs this season. The Giants only allowed 61 ground yards to the Vikings last week, though while allowing 271 through the air. A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert will certainly be in play as well. As for the Giants, Daniel Jones could have success vs. an Eagles team that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to QBs this year; however he did struggle in the Week 14 matchup vs. Philadelphia, passing for 169 yards and one TD and logging only 26 yards on the ground. Saquon Barkley was also shut down in that contest, so the Giants could have their work cut out for them.
Here are some players to target at every salary point this Saturday!
Jerick McKinnon has become one of Patrick Mahomes’s favorite targets.
NFL DFS Top-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes. He’s rested coming off a bye, and he was the best DFS QB all year, leading the league in passing yards (5,250) and passing TDs (41). Yes, this Jaguars defense has improved, but don’t overthink it.
Running Back
Miles Sanders. Yes, it’s possible Jalen Hurts steals the show, but with Hurts coming off an injury, why not grind Sanders like they did in Week 14 and save Hurts a little for the next round? The Giants have allowed fourth-most rushing yards this year to opposing runners.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown. There’s no data that says this is a great matchup for A.J. Brown … there’s just A.J. Brown being a stud. He has a 28.7% target share and 38.4% air yards share for Philadelphia (fourth), and the Eagles are favored by more than a TD. Brown had 165 yards and a TD across two games vs. the Giants this year.
Tight End
Travis Kelce. He’s Patrick Mahomes’s favorite target and his 1,388 regular-season receiving yards are more than DeVonta Smith, Christian Kirk, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Enough said.
NFL DFS Mid-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts. O.K., this isn’t much of a salary-saver, but we only have four QBs on the slate, and I’m fading Daniel Jones this time. Hurts is a beast, and he finished as the QB2 in DFS the last time he faced off with the Giants.
Running Back
Travis Etienne. His matchup is second only to Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco on the other side of this game. The difference is that Etienne doesn’t have to share. Etienne has had three 100-yard games in his last five and he will get plenty of opportunity. But don’t forget Jerick McKinnon, who is suddenly a favorite of Mahomes. McKinnon should have success vs. a Jacksonville team that allowed the fourth-most passing yards and an 82.1% catch rate to running backs during the regular season.
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk. Kirk remains the top target for Trevor Lawrence. He put up 1,108 yards during the regular season and last week he saw a team-high 14 targets for 78 yards and a score in the Jaguars’ comeback win vs. the Chargers. The Chiefs are favored by 8.5, suggesting the Jaguars will be playing catch-up, and as the Chiefs allowed 33 passing TDs during the regular season, Kirk is a strong value in this tier. Oh, and did I mention, he burned K.C. for 105 yards and two TDs in Week 10?
Tight End
Dallas Goedert. Goedert has the second-best matchup of the week as the Giants ranked 26th vs. the TE during the regular season.
NFL DFS Bargain-Tier Plays
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence. I love this play. Everything about it tracks. Game script, talent, matchup. Lawrence may not win the game, but he should be able to put up solid DFS numbers -- even if he throws a few picks. Lawrence finished as the QB8 when these two met in Week 10 of the regular season.
Running Back
Boston Scott. Want to hear something bonkers? In seven career games vs. the Giants, Scott has nine rushing and 10 total touchdowns. TEN. Even more bonkers: He scored at least one TD in six of the seven matchups. I’m just saying…
Wide Receiver
Isaiah Hodgins. The Giants receiver has seen an average of nearly nine targets per game across the last three weeks, and if the Giants are playing catch-up, Daniel Jones should send the ball his way.
Tight End
Evan Engram. Engram saw 11 targets last week for 93 yards and a score. He’s a favorite target for Lawrence, and they are expected to be playing from behind.
