Fantasy Football Running Back Busts to Avoid in 2025: Saquon Barkley Regression Incoming

Michael Fabiano | Aug 29, 2025

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley was one of the best running backs in fantasy football last season, scoring 355.3 points. / Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Running back busts can be detrimental to your chances of taking home a fantasy football championship, or at the least your chances of fielding a competitive roster. Just ask any manager who drafted Chrisitan McCaffrey or Travis Etienne Jr. last season. Based on their lack of success, it was tough to make up for their absences unless you got lucky and were able to land Bucky Irving or Chase Brown a bit later in your drafts. That was likely rare.

So, let’s get into some of the running backs who could fail to meet expectations … and I’m not going to bring you some weak sauce and mention players who won’t cost you some real draft capital. Was Raheem Mostert a bust last season after scoring 21 touchdowns the previous year? Not when you look at his average draft position, which was in Round 7.

Last year, McCaffrey and Etienne Jr., both first-round picks, are perfect examples of busts. Breece Hall, who had an ADP of 5.4, finished as a disappointment … he wasn’t even in the top 15 among running backs. Even Isiah Pacheco, who was picked on average at 20.2, can be labeled a bust. Yes, he missed time with injuries, but he wasn’t good upon his return.

Bust can’t be busts if they don’t cost you something significant in the draft, though. Who cares that Kimani Vidal didn’t become the sleeper we thought last year ... he only cost a late-round flier.

Based on these parameters, I’m going to give you some running backs who might not be complete busts but could fail to meet expectations based on his current ADP data. So, let’s call these runners you should beware or who could fail to meet your expectations.

All Busts: QBs | WRs | TEs

2025 Fantasy Football RB Busts to Avoid Drafting

Saquon Barkley, Eagles: Barkley is coming off a magical 2024 campaign, rushing for over 2,000 yards, finishing second in fantasy points among backs and winning a Super Bowl.  However, I have discussed ad nauseam why he’s almost a lock for regression. Whether it’s the trend of running backs faltering the season after posting 370 touches, 400-plus carries (regular season and playoffs) and 2,000 rushing yards, Barkley is up against all of it. Oh, and he’s on the Madden cover for those of you who believe in curses.

Player	Year	Yards	Points	Year	Yards	Points	Points Diff.
Derrick Henry	2020	2027	333.1	2021	937	193.3	-139.8
Adrian Peterson	2012	2097	347.4	2013	1266	232.7	-114.7
Chris Johnson	2009	2006	392.9	2010	1364	272.9	-120
Jamal Lewis	2003	2066	325.1	2004	1006	164.2	-160.9
Terrell Davis	1998	2008	381.5	1999	211	36.7	-344.8
Barry Sanders	1997	2053	348.8	1998	1491	235	-113.8
Eric Dickerson	1984	2105	327.4	1985	1234	228	-99.4
O.J. Simpson	1973	2003	285.2	1974	1125	170.4	-114.8

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers: McCaffrey has played in seven or fewer game in three of his last five seasons, including a 2024 campaign where he missed all but four games. When he played last season, he wasn’t great, averaging 12 points per game. He’s also going into his age-29 season, yet CMC is still getting picked, on average, at 9.0. That’s nuts. I might be in the minority here, but managers drafting McCaffrey that high are asking for trouble. If you do draft him, you better be sure to get Isaac Guerendo as a fantasy handcuff.

Breece Hall, Jets: Hall is one season removed from being one of the top two running backs in fantasy football, but I think that was a total outlier. In fact, there's been reports that the Jets will use Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis in what could be a backfield rotation this season. That's not to say Hall won't lead this RBBC, but his numbers could be more like what we saw last season than in 2023. I see him falling in my drafts, even as far as Round 4, so buyers beware.

James Conner, Cardinals: Conner was solid last season, posting over 1,500 total yards, nine touchdowns and 253.8 fantasy points. The concern is that this was the first time he played at least 16 games ever in his career, missing at least four games in each of the previous two seasons. He’s also entering his age-30 season, so you have to wonder how much more he has left in the tank. Plus, a young Trey Benson is waiting in the wings.

Aaron Jones Sr., Vikings:  Jones Sr. finished last season tied for 14th in fantasy points among running backs, and he was seventh among backs with 306 touches. At the age of 29, it was the most touches he’s ever had in a single season. Now entering his age-30 season, Jones Sr. is likely to lose work to Jordan Mason, 26, who the Vikings acquired via trade. This is looking a lot like a potential backfield committee, so I’d beware Jones Sr.