Is Christian McCaffrey Worth A First-Round Pick In Fantasy Football Drafts?

Michael Fabiano | Aug 31, 2025

49ers RB Christian McCaffrey missed all but four games last season due to injuries. / Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Back when I was a kid, there was a comic strip called “Peanuts.” It was about this group of kids, including Charlie Brown, going about their everyday life. You might know some of the old specials, like “Charlie Brown Christmas” or “It’s the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown.” They came out back in the 1960s (damn I’m getting old)!

Anyways, one of the most famous scenes from Charlie Brown involves him trying to kick a football only to have his friend, Lucy, pick the ball up before he kicks it, resulting in Charlie landing on his backside. Why am I mentioning this now?

Well, if you draft Christian McCaffrey in the first round, you’re Charlie Brown … a fool who will ultimately land on your butt with great embarrassment.

McCaffrey has been one of the elite players in fantasy football in his time in the league. In fact, his numbers compare favorable with some of the great backs like Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson. The problem with CMC, of course, has been injuries. Over the last five years, he’s played in seven or fewer games three times.

That includes last season, when he missed all but four games due to injuries.

Still, fantasy managers are eating up the preseason reports about how great he looks and how he’s back at 100 percent. That’s awesome … for right now. But based on his lack of durability, that might be a temporary status. I’d also keep in mind that CMC is 29 years old, and he averaged around 12 points in his four games in 2024. That is a far cry from his career average in PPR formats, which is over 22 points per game.

Top 10 Fantasy Running Backs (29 Or Older) Since 2010

Year	Player	Age	Att	Rush Yds	Total Yards	TDs	PPR Points
2014	Matt Forte	29	266	1038	1846	10	346.6
2024	Derrick Henry	30	325	1921	2114	16	336.4
2023	Raheem Mostert	31	209	1012	1187	21	267.7
2024	Alvin Kamara	29	228	950	1493	8	265.3
2017	LeSean McCoy	29	287	1138	1586	8	263.6
2015	Adrian Peterson	30	327	1485	1707	11	260.7
2024	James Conner	29	236	1094	1508	9	253.8
2014	Justin Forsett	29	235	1266	1529	8	246.9
2023	Derrick Henry	29	280	1167	1381	12	246.7
2015	Danny Woodhead	30	98	336	1091	9	243.1

I would also keep in mind that if you’re drafting McCaffrey in Round 1, you’re expecting him to put up top-five numbers among running backs. Last season, that would have required a player to score 290-plus points and average 17-plus points.

Guess how many running backs at 29 years old or older have scored 290-plus points in the last 15 years? Two. Matt Forte (2014) and Derrick Henry (2024). Raheem Mostert came the closest without hitting 290 points, scoring 267.7 points in a total outlier season (2023). What’s more, just five backs (minimum 10 games) have averaged 17-plus points at age 29 or older since 2010.

That’s not a lot.

I would also keep in mind the 49ers have question marks on their offensive line. In fact, it was given an average C grade by the folks at 49ers on SI. Furthermore, Grant Cohn stated that “when Trent Williams is healthy, this group is average. When he's out, it might be the worst offensive line in the league.”

If the offensive line is bad, can you expect CMC to post elite numbers (again, assuming he plays close to a full season)? I’m not saying I wouldn’t take a chance on CMC in drafts, but not in Round 1. I want a player who I know I can trust like Ja’Marr Chase, Bijan Robinson, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Jahmyr Gibbs, Mailk Nabers or Amon-Ra St. Brown. All of them have been durable and highly productive in the careers.

So, if you think McCaffrey is a 50-50 bet (heck even a 65-35 bet) to stay healthy and put up huge numbers like he did earlier in his career, go ahead and take him in Round 1. But based on the data and trends I’ve discussed, I’m not willing to risk it.

Don’t be Charlie Brown.