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Draft or Pass: Todd Gurley Fantasy Football Projection

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It's never too early to start your fantasy football research, and we here at SI Fantasy want to provide you with the best information possible heading into your drafts. Our "Draft or Pass" video series takes a closer look at a fantasy player that will be debated, often leading up to fantasy drafts. Are our hosts targeting this player specifically? Are they avoiding him entirely?

Today's video focuses on Atlanta Falcons running back Todd Gurley.

Draft at current ADP: 30.0 (RB15)

Gurley: The mighty have fallen, but the hate has probably gone a little too far on Gurley. He's one of only two players to rush for 12 or more touchdowns in each of the last two seasons (the other is Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry) and the only player to do it in three consecutive seasons. Gurley is now in Atlanta with no real threat to him losing touches for any reason other than injury. Can he get to a dozen scores yet again?

Here's what Falcon Report's Zach Hood had to say when Gurley first signed:

Gurley will replace Devonta Freeman as the lead back for Atlanta in 2020, as Falcons' faithful will hope he can find his form and remain healthy. There are serious concerns about his knees, which he has battled injuries with going all the way back to his college days.

Gurley returns to the Peach State after a standout career at the University of Georgia, where he earned All-SEC honors twice in three years, rushing for over 3000 yards and scoring 42 total touchdowns.

There was a lot of talk about how "bad" he was in 2019, but he finished as the RB14 in both total and average points per game in PPR formats. After everyone panicked last preseason, Gurley missed just one game last season. Gurley certainly isn't a first-round talent anymore, but he has an RB2 price tag right now. He should be a solid RB2 in 2020.

Read the full video transcript:

Bill Enright: Todd Gurley finds himself on a new home now that he plays for the Atlanta Falcons when it comes to fantasy football. Are you drafting or are you passing? Let's find out what Jamie Eisner and Corey Parson have to say. There are two fantasy and gambling insiders here at Sports Illustrated. Corey, I'll start with you. Todd Gurley, draft or pass?

Todd Gurley

Corey Parson: That's going to be have to be a hard pass for me. Listen, I like Todd really liked the fact that he's coming back to the state of Georgia where he became a star in college football. But to be 100% honest with. This guy is washed up? And I hate to say that the knee injury, the ankle injury from last season, you see take a toll him the yards per carry dipped to under three. For a player like Todd Gurley, he's probably still going to be in the RB, two range. If I catch him in that RB three range, I might take a shot on him. As for why him being drafted right now, I have no interest in Todd Gurley.

Fantasy Football: Todd Gurley Week 14

Bill Enright: Jamie, Corey mentioned about where he's being drafted currently his ADP late, second, early, third. Are you drafting or passing? 

Jaime Eisner: Well, if he falls to the late third or I think he's going to end up going, I will take him there. Look, he's the only running back in the NFL period over the last three years to score a dozen or more times in every single season. And even as bad as things were last year, he finishes the RB fourteen on a points per game basis in PPR formats. I think he's going to be probably closer to RB twenty when it's all said and done this year, but he doesn't have any real competition there, particularly around the goal line. I think he could be a solid low end RB two for you. 

Bill Enright: Plenty more fantasy football analysis, you can find it all from Sports Illustrated by adding on over to AD slash fantasy. 

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