2021 NFL Divisional Round - Best Bets against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team

Members of the SI Gambling team, along with our colleagues at the MMQB share their best bets against the spread for the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs.
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NFL Best Bets: Divisional Round

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

OFFICIAL VEGAS WHISPERS PICKS DOCUMENTED

YTD: 218-142-3 | MLB: 79-60 | NFL: 70-49-1 | CFB: 31-21 | January-March (2020): 38-12-2 | Casey Olson's MMA PICKS: 210-87-6 (71% on all released betting plays)

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EDITOR'S NOTE: ALL ODDS ARE SELECTED VIA DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-0-1 ATS

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | TOTAL: 45.5

While I find this week’s slate of games to be fascinating for a wide variety of reasons, I’m having a difficult time locking in any particular side or total without looking to use a teaser to shift the odds. For the record, SI PRO members have already received not one, but TWO “Vegas Whispers” teaser plays for the divisional round along with multiple prop bets.

Instead, I’ll take a shot on a matchup driven play offering outstanding odds that is mostly matchup driven.

Packers TE Robert Tonyan tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns (11) with Travis Kelce this year. Even more remarkable? He did it on less than half as many receptions as Kelce: 105 to 52. Tonyan has also scored a touchdown in six of Green Bay’s last seven games.

The likely MVP of the league in Aaron Rodgers has an affinity for looking Tonyan’s way in the red zone, and he’s capitalized on the opportunities all season. With Jalen Ramsey attempting to lock down Davante Adams in a shadow matchup, I love Rodgers to find Tonyan at least once at home against a Rams defense that finished in the bottom half of targets and touchdowns allowed to tight ends.

BEST BET: Robert Tonyan “Anytime Touchdown” scorer (+160) on DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-1 ATS

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-3) | TOTAL: 49.5

BEST BET: Ravens +3

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-0 ATS

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-3) | TOTAL: 49.5

BEST BET: Ravens +3

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 1-0 ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) | TOTAL: 52

BEST BET: Saints -3

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 1-0 ATS

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-3) | TOTAL: 52

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (12-5) are on the road for a second straight week following a 31-23 win in Washington last week. Tampa Bay racked up 507 total yards on offense but needed a late field goal to produce a PUSH on the -8 point spread (closed between 8-9.5 depending on the book). Drew Brees and the Saints (13-4) are playing a second straight home game after a 21-9 win over Chicago. The final score is misleading as the Bears scored a last-second touchdown. Chicago managed just 239 yards on offense and New Orleans owned a 38:58 to 21:02 time of possession edge.

New Orleans has won the last five meetings between these NFC South rivals. That includes a 34-23 win at home in Week 1 and a 38-3 victory on the road in Week 9 this season. The Saints owned a huge time of possession edge (40:04 to 19:56) in the second meeting and held Tampa Bay to just eight yards on five rushing attempts. Those are key stats New Orleans will aim to duplicate in this game. Both teams are loaded with playmakers on offense but the Saints have an edge on defense. Lay the point spread and bet on New Orleans.

New Orleans is a 3-point favorite at DraftKings – Bet on the Saints to cover.

BEST BET: Saints -3

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-1 ATS

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | TOTAL: 45.5

BEST BET: Packers -6.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-1 ATS

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs -10 | TOTAL: 57

BEST BET: Browns +10

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-1 ATS

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs -10 | TOTAL: 57

BEST BET: Browns +10

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich) - POSTSEASON RECORD: 0-0-1 ATS

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | TOTAL: 45.5

Last week I was on the Rams to win outright in Seattle, but now I’m trying to hop off the bandwagon at the right time. A big part of why I took them to win in the wild card round was their matchup against a frequent opponent Sean McVay has handled in the past—not an indication that I was ready to put them on the same tier as Green Bay.

The Packers have been playing great, and one week out of sight, out of mind shouldn’t let us forget that. I often underrate home field advantage and pick a lot of road teams, but I do think Green Bay has a home advantage here, especially since we’ve seen them show up in cold, dark games late this season already.

*Note, this is not technically a night game, with its 3:35 p.m. local time kickoff, but the sun will set during the second quarter at 4:40 p.m. and it will be cold because that’s how the weather works. Yes, I googled the sunset on Saturday because I am committed to giving you my best information.

I know everyone wants to talk about the Rams’ defense, but the Packers have a good D too, averaging just 18.5 points allowed in their six game winning streak to end the regular season. They look every bit the No. 1 seed on both sides of the ball, and I expect them to win by at least a touchdown on Saturday.

BEST BET: Packers -6.5

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LAST WEEK'S POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 2-5-2

COLLECTIVE POSTSEASON RECORD ATS: 2-5-2

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